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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 941375 times)
boumalo
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April 27, 2014, 04:59:40 PM
 #1461

How bullish divergence turns into bearish




What looked like a bullish divergence was caused by the truncation of the downward sub-wave, possibly because of positive news from China at that time.
But when weekly MACD is about to go negative for the first time since September 2011, guess what comes next...

It is interesting and it may be enough to make a trade for a day trader

But there are a few scenarios from where we are and some are bullish

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N12
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April 27, 2014, 05:06:00 PM
 #1462

Bearish divergence: Price does higher high, indicator does lower high
Hidden bearish divergence: Indicator does higher high, price does lower high

This isn't really a bearish divergence if the slope is just less negative. Plus, you drew it from different points in time for price vs. indicator.

Anyway, I checked it out on bitcoincharts, and there, the daily MACD actually does show a hidden bearish divergence, very strictly speaking (the slope is almost flat). Didn't catch that before, so thanks for that. Grin
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April 27, 2014, 08:53:22 PM
 #1463

I'm not really TA master but I don't see any bearish divergence out there. Bullish divergence failed, yeah, but there's no bearish one at all.

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boumalo
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April 29, 2014, 02:53:14 PM
 #1464

lol are you serious? falling wedge pattern doesn't make sense in forex/bitcoin

edit: oh and btw we already broke the bottom line at $453 in gox Tongue

#330 November 20 2013

Having bitcoins and gold seem horrible right now but having any fiat currencies will feel horrible within a few years when having bitcoins or gold will mean you are rich

Tzupy
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April 29, 2014, 03:04:25 PM
 #1465

In August - September 2011 daily MACD seemed to indicate a bullish divergence too, but the market said no:


Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
masterluc (OP)
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April 29, 2014, 03:37:01 PM
 #1466

In August - September 2011 daily MACD seemed to indicate a bullish divergence too, but the market said no:


For this chart - market said yes finally. On this chart divergences progressively developed during few months and eventually made major $1.99 low.

igorr
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May 01, 2014, 02:32:16 PM
 #1467

LOL,

View Screen Capture

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boumalo
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May 03, 2014, 01:25:09 PM
 #1468


I have a task for you to show you are not blindly bearish : tell us 3 reasons why Bitcoin could suceed

igorr
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May 03, 2014, 03:08:53 PM
 #1469


I have a task for you to show you are not blindly bearish : tell us 3 reasons why Bitcoin could suceed

There is much reasons,

Just read my threads started before 3-4 months,  all my analysis and predictions is so accurate.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400001.0

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=374935.msg4014576#msg4014576

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=420005.msg4563711#msg4563711

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=419207.msg4553769#msg4553769

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=467191.0

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podyx
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May 04, 2014, 06:07:11 PM
 #1470

-text-

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay
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May 06, 2014, 02:48:11 AM
 #1471


LOL. And bump for the great thread.

$438 support broken, $425 probably, too - where is the next stop?
JustAnotherSheep
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May 06, 2014, 03:45:55 AM
 #1472

LOL. And bump for the great thread.

$438 support broken, $425 probably, too - where is the next stop?
$410-400, followed by $360, I should think Smiley

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
greatway
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May 06, 2014, 03:48:07 AM
 #1473

hmmm revisiting the previous low....
boumalo
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May 06, 2014, 01:23:09 PM
 #1474

LOL. And bump for the great thread.

$438 support broken, $425 probably, too - where is the next stop?
$410-400, followed by $360, I should think Smiley

Or we will stop the trend and come back up

There will be ton of support at 420-360 even if the sentiment will get even worse and some will panic sell

oda.krell
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May 08, 2014, 01:09:35 PM
 #1475


I usually suck at spotting divergences, so I better ask...





bullish divergence?

[ ] yes

[ ] no


Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
pinky
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May 08, 2014, 01:16:57 PM
 #1476


bullish divergence?

[ ] yes

[ ] no


According to this it is hidden bearish div.




████████████▀████▄████████████████▀███▀████████████████▄█
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      |                  |                  |            
oda.krell
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May 08, 2014, 01:18:44 PM
 #1477


bullish divergence?

[ ] yes

[ ] no


According to this it is hidden bearish div.



I see. I really need to start wrapping my head around this.

Thanks!

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay
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May 08, 2014, 03:22:39 PM
 #1478


I usually suck at spotting divergences, so I better ask...





bullish divergence?

[ ] yes

[ ] no



No. The way I understand it, with a small rally now the oscillator would go into the oversold range - not a good sign. In other words, not that much room for growth left.

EDIT: Pinky's answer looks more scientific and trustworthy. Anyways, my gut feeling is it does not look very optimistic.
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May 08, 2014, 04:43:29 PM
Last edit: May 26, 2014, 10:43:04 PM by thefiniteidea
 #1479

From my blog over the last few months (it's all very bearish)....

I think once the broader market begins to turn lower in second half of the year, Bitcoin will trend lower with it.




Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay
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May 08, 2014, 05:16:14 PM
 #1480

Does anyone know when was the last 1 week EMA cross in bitcoin history?

Bitstamp - January 11, 2012.
Price of Bitcoin - $6.95

January 2012  was the last cross down (before current one)?

When did the last  cross up happen?
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