Analysis

[T.Stuart]

Here's a 'big picture' EW analysis using Mt.Gox + Bitstamp price data:

Sorry, I wasn't specific enough. I mean analysis zooming in on the particular post-bubble times analogous to where we are now.

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[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Triangle 4th appeared since my last post

What do you mean?

[masterluc]

Continuation

[oda.krell]

Continuation

I'm not well versed enough in EW, so I'll have to ask, continuation of the recent upwards move, or a larger corrective trend?

[JustAnotherSheep]

Continuation

I'm not well versed enough in EW, so I'll have to ask, continuation of the recent upwards move, or a larger corrective trend?

Fairly sure he means a continuation of the upwards move as, if I understand it correctly, a continuation pattern of the bear market would need to be much larger and comprise the entirety of the uptrend.

[masterluc]

Rebound from 340 low more and more looks like impulse. And if so, I think price is currently in 4 of 1 wave from 340 low.

Sorry about no pics, I am away from terminal, civil war is going on here in Ukraine. US and dollar, god damn you. I hope nuclear bombs around pacific and atlantic beach already ticking for all that they'd done in world.

[oda.krell]

Rebound from 340 low more and more looks like impulse. And if so, I think price is currently in 4 of 1 wave from 340 low.

Sorry about no pics, I am away from terminal, civil war is going on here in Ukraine. US and dollar, god damn you. I hope nuclear bombs around pacific and atlantic beach already ticking for all that they'd done in world.

Thanks for the clarification. I thought that much, but a lot of quite competent EW analysts seemed to say that the move didn't look impulsive. so I was doubtful.


Sorry to hear about the trouble Ukraine situation causes to you. It's bad enough to know it affects someone, it's weirder to know it affects people you talk to. I made an attempt to follow it closely earlier this year, mainly over on reddit - r/europe. Someone made this over there, which had me laugh about the whole absurdity a bit at least... (I still don't know what a "protoukr" is, though)

[masterluc]

Someone made this over there, which had me laugh about the whole absurdity a bit at least... (I still don't know what a "protoukr" is, though)

Protoukr (proto-ukrainian) is jokely name of far-early people lived on Ukraine territory. As some school history books in Ukraine claim ukrainians were parents of whole europe or even world hehe.

This was funny. Maidan was romantic. But now blood mess here. And escalating quick. Thanks US embassy, thanks to all EU leaders were there. Thanks Schwarzenegger for support this blood. I hope they will get  nuclear war they looked for, as Russia recognizes this destabilization of close region as direct attack. I hope bitcoin will survive.

[Gimmelfarb]

Rebound from 340 low more and more looks like impulse. And if so, I think price is currently in 4 of 1 wave from 340 low.

nice! i actually almost caught myself pumping my fist when i read this from lucif. any thoughts on where the last subwave of 1 might land? 700-800 area?

[oda.krell]

I hope they will get  nuclear war they looked for, as Russia recognizes this destabilization of close region as direct attack. I hope bitcoin will survive.

Agreed on the 'get out of my backyard' sentiment. But nuclear war? Isn't it just a cynical power game? Putin never has been as popular at home as he is now, I understood. The EU is pressured to "stand up for the small, independent country" or they'll look even weaker than they usually appear. And the US is, well, just the US unwrapping their huge national dick on everything.

[h3speros]

Rebound from 340 low more and more looks like impulse. And if so, I think price is currently in 4 of 1 wave from 340 low.

Sorry about no pics, I am away from terminal, civil war is going on here in Ukraine. US and dollar, god damn you. I hope nuclear bombs around pacific and atlantic beach already ticking for all that they'd done in world.

Thanks for the clarification. I thought that much, but a lot of quite competent EW analysts seemed to say that the move didn't look impulsive. so I was doubtful.


Sorry to hear about the trouble Ukraine situation causes to you. It's bad enough to know it affects someone, it's weirder to know it affects people you talk to. I made an attempt to follow it closely earlier this year, mainly over on reddit - r/europe. Someone made this over there, which had me laugh about the whole absurdity a bit at least... (I still don't know what a "protoukr" is, though)

Can you make this more clear to me. Does impulse mean that the rally is not so real?

And btw, thank you very much for that you share your info guys, oda and masterluc (and many others), long time reader here and I have a good feeling that I'm starting to learn something important here and when I will succeed in doing something important I will not forget who you are.

[cAPSLOCK]

Rebound from 340 low more and more looks like impulse. And if so, I think price is currently in 4 of 1 wave from 340 low.

Sorry about no pics, I am away from terminal, civil war is going on here in Ukraine. US and dollar, god damn you. I hope nuclear bombs around pacific and atlantic beach already ticking for all that they'd done in world.

Thanks for the clarification. I thought that much, but a lot of quite competent EW analysts seemed to say that the move didn't look impulsive. so I was doubtful.


Sorry to hear about the trouble Ukraine situation causes to you. It's bad enough to know it affects someone, it's weirder to know it affects people you talk to. I made an attempt to follow it closely earlier this year, mainly over on reddit - r/europe. Someone made this over there, which had me laugh about the whole absurdity a bit at least... (I still don't know what a "protoukr" is, though)

Can you make this more clear to me. Does impulse mean that the rally is not so real?

And btw, thank you very much for that you share your info guys, oda and masterluc (and many others), long time reader here and I have a good feeling that I'm starting to learn something important here and when I will succeed in doing something important I will not forget who you are.

It would mean we are in a rally.   And we will probably see another leg up before we enter a corrective wave back to roughly the present level.

But perhaps I should let the smart people discuss this.

[Gimmelfarb]

Rebound from 340 low more and more looks like impulse. And if so, I think price is currently in 4 of 1 wave from 340 low.

Sorry about no pics, I am away from terminal, civil war is going on here in Ukraine. US and dollar, god damn you. I hope nuclear bombs around pacific and atlantic beach already ticking for all that they'd done in world.

Thanks for the clarification. I thought that much, but a lot of quite competent EW analysts seemed to say that the move didn't look impulsive. so I was doubtful.


Sorry to hear about the trouble Ukraine situation causes to you. It's bad enough to know it affects someone, it's weirder to know it affects people you talk to. I made an attempt to follow it closely earlier this year, mainly over on reddit - r/europe. Someone made this over there, which had me laugh about the whole absurdity a bit at least... (I still don't know what a "protoukr" is, though)

Can you make this more clear to me. Does impulse mean that the rally is not so real?

And btw, thank you very much for that you share your info guys, oda and masterluc (and many others), long time reader here and I have a good feeling that I'm starting to learn something important here and when I will succeed in doing something important I will not forget who you are.

It would mean we are in a rally.   And we will probably see another leg up before we enter a corrective wave back to roughly the present level.

But perhaps I should let the smart people discuss this.

not sure about the present level. i would love to hear lucif's opinion on this. after 5 of 1, could we not see a more significant correction of the whole move from 440, if not 340? a 38.2% or 50% maybe? that would still look bullish.

[CEG5952]

it hasn't gone below $645 yet though. Although now that it did break the support line it is slightly more likely to fall back to $630.

I agree. I am watching for a local bottom around the $630 level. There is fib confluence there with this short term triangle bottom. This could be a good base for a leg up past $700, IMO.

plausible, let's hope so

Didn't hit my $632 bids. Had to buy $638~ or so. But looking good so far, bounced right near the triangle bottom support, and now looking to test the upper bound. Fingers crossed for a breakout to $700s.

[vphen]

Sold most in short term near daily sma200

Continuation

Have you bought back?

[oda.krell]

Sold most in short term near daily sma200

Continuation

Have you bought back?

If he timed it right, he might have even bought back at a small profit.

If I'm right about his volume, slippage turned that small profit into a net zero at least :P

[Gimmelfarb]

wave 4 of 1. hmmm. can anyone familiar with EW chart this? never could really figure out all the rules myself, but would love to see this drawn on a chart. need more moon charts around here.

[RyNinDaCleM]

wave 4 of 1. hmmm. can anyone familiar with EW chart this? never could really figure out all the rules myself, but would love to see this drawn on a chart. need more moon charts around here.

This is all I come up with. The proportions are whacked if this is indeed an impulse.



To me, it feels forced!
It is easy to count it as a Zig-Zag (5-3-5). It's more natural.

[zimmah]

it hasn't gone below $645 yet though. Although now that it did break the support line it is slightly more likely to fall back to $630.

I agree. I am watching for a local bottom around the $630 level. There is fib confluence there with this short term triangle bottom. This could be a good base for a leg up past $700, IMO.

plausible, let's hope so

Didn't hit my $632 bids. Had to buy $638~ or so. But looking good so far, bounced right near the triangle bottom support, and now looking to test the upper bound. Fingers crossed for a breakout to $700s.

Seems to be pretty much stuck on $650ish but sooner or later it has to move one way or the other.

[ssmc2]

Masterluc, I'd love to hear your thoughts on our current market