Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[rocks]

this was one of the clearest things going on in early 2007 that caused me to put on a huge stock short in Oct 2007 starting with New Century:

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/countrywide-ceo-continues-unload-stock
   

nice catch. I'm picking that we could have a good night or two swapping similar stories over some bottles ...

edit: just noticed that there were still nothing in the comments after 8 years for that damning article about the countrywide CEO making off with $150 million before the company collapsed (and was bailed out?)

Problem with insider sales is since a ton of compensation these days is in the form of options/stock, it is hard to tell what selling is due to foreseeing issues in their own business vs. standard selling for portfolio diversification. Insiders always sell more than they buy because of this compensation. (Tech insiders BTW have been selling hard into this latest tech bubble.)

Another problem is insiders are often wrong. The Enron CEO did not sell, and if my memory is right he was actively buying as the stock crashed, all the way to zero. He truly believed in the model and didn't understand how/why it failed.

IMHO the Enron CEO was not a criminal, just an idiot who didn't fully understand his own business. This differs from the Countrywide CEO who knew what was wrong, and milked the system.

[1713980463]

1713980463

[1713980463]

1713980463

[1713980463]

1713980463

[cypherdoc]

this was one of the clearest things going on in early 2007 that caused me to put on a huge stock short in Oct 2007 starting with New Century:

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/countrywide-ceo-continues-unload-stock
   

nice catch. I'm picking that we could have a good night or two swapping similar stories over some bottles ...

edit: just noticed that there were still nothing in the comments after 8 years for that damning article about the countrywide CEO making off with $150 million before the company collapsed (and was bailed out?)

i spotted Angelo at a charity event i was attending last year.  he's short; and tanned 

[rocks]

i'm not making the argument with tvbcof that gvt won't enforce unreasonable laws onto Bitcoin.  that probably is in Bitcoin's future.

what i'm arguing is their ability to actively taint tx's, either thru addresses or UTXO's.   that's not technically possible for them and also for those they demand to do so.  thus, their work will be cut out for them, assuming they need to actually track and enforce against those who disobey.

OK, got it.

For a modern day example, they are effectively banning the use of cash. So that everything is electronic and fully tracked in their financial system.
http://mises.org/blog/fighting-war-terror-banning-cash

In theory it should be impossible to enforce a cash ban, after all cash is similar to bitcoin it is not traceable and transactions are permanent, but in practice I am sure most businesses and individuals will voluntarily comply making the ban 99% effective.

I think what tvbcof is getting at is their ability to force major transaction points into their own system, will enable a government to effectively create a 'whitelist' bitcoin economy that is tracked an monitored. Yes, bitcoin will process coin transfers regardless of their whitelist / blacklist status, but what good is that if your employer, grocer, butcher, pizza man, electric, water & internet/phone utilities, etc. go along with the whitelist and only accept transactions from gov approved sources?

If this sounds far-fetched, well I'd challenge you to pay these firms with cash after the gov eventually forbids cash usage and demands electronic payments only. After that ban your cash would be useless, unless you can whitelist it into a bank account.

It's not technically possible to taint/track bitcoin, any more than it is not technically possible to ban cash transfers or gold transfers, yet these things can and still do happen.

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

If Gavin is worried about not being able to fork after the next potential burst why not apply Justus idea [1], too much coding with not enough time?
[1]https://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/02/09/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-2-price-discovery/

Because who pays for that coding? And who can be sure that the proposal, even if completed and tested, will be adopted?

Andresen's position seems to be: (i) he takes responsibility for coding and testing a solution that as far as he can see takes care of the issue well into the future (ii) he does this with sufficient time for others to analyze it, so that, whatever else happens (iii) there is at least one safe fall-back option.

Can he guarantee his proposal is optimal? Of course not. It is just quite reassuring for it to be out.

[smooth]

If Gavin is worried about not being able to fork after the next potential burst why not apply Justus idea [1], too much coding with not enough time?
[1]https://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/02/09/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-2-price-discovery/

Because who pays for that coding? And who can be sure that the proposal, even if completed and tested, will be adopted?

Or if adopted that it would have the desired effect.

I see it as likely collapsing into the same sort of economically-optimized-by-centralization system anyway.

[cypherdoc]

i'm not making the argument with tvbcof that gvt won't enforce unreasonable laws onto Bitcoin.  that probably is in Bitcoin's future.

what i'm arguing is their ability to actively taint tx's, either thru addresses or UTXO's.   that's not technically possible for them and also for those they demand to do so.  thus, their work will be cut out for them, assuming they need to actually track and enforce against those who disobey.

OK, got it.

For a modern day example, they are effectively banning the use of cash. So that everything is electronic and fully tracked in their financial system.
http://mises.org/blog/fighting-war-terror-banning-cash

In theory it should be impossible to enforce a cash ban, after all cash is similar to bitcoin it is not traceable and transactions are permanent, but in practice I am sure most businesses and individuals will voluntarily comply making the ban 99% effective.

I think what tvbcof is getting at is their ability to force major transaction points into their own system, will enable a government to effectively create a 'whitelist' bitcoin economy that is tracked an monitored. Yes, bitcoin will process coin transfers regardless of their whitelist / blacklist status, but what good is that if your employer, grocer, butcher, pizza man, electric, water & internet/phone utilities, etc. go along with the whitelist and only accept transactions from gov approved sources?

If this sounds far-fetched, well I'd challenge you to pay these firms with cash after the gov eventually forbids cash usage and demands electronic payments only. After that ban your cash would be useless, unless you can whitelist it into a bank account.

It's not technically possible to taint/track bitcoin, any more than it is not technically possible to ban cash transfers or gold transfers, yet these things can and still do happen.

on balance, i think it's too late to make Bitcoin illegal or even put sharp restrictions on it here in the US.  

mainly b/c it's global and their are too many large, legitimate US investors involved already.  think NYSE, NASDAQ, multiple hedge funds, banks, VC funds, and numerous financial luminaries and Wall St folk.  just about the entire Silicon Valley wants it as fintech has been irrationally and unfairly excluded from financial innovation forever.  this is their time.  Wall St has begun to sense the inevitability and are climbing aboard.  there are plenty of overt data points and pending signs.

[marcus_of_augustus]

http://www.gizmag.com/cannae-reactionless-drive-space-propulsion/33210/

[cypherdoc]

http://www.gizmag.com/cannae-reactionless-drive-space-propulsion/33210/

an armada of BitSats encircling the Earth.

[tvbcof]

on balance, i think it's too late to make Bitcoin illegal or even put sharp restrictions on it here in the US.  

mainly b/c it's global and their are too many large, legitimate US investors involved already.  think NYSE, NASDAQ, multiple hedge funds, banks, VC funds, and numerous financial luminaries and Wall St folk.  just about the entire Silicon Valley wants it as fintech has been irrationally and unfairly excluded from financial innovation forever.  this is their time.  Wall St has begun to sense the inevitability and are climbing aboard.  there are plenty of overt data points and pending signs.

I'm sure glad that there are so few investors that are doing well with the existing fiat system otherwise they might have an interest in making sure Bitcoin did not threaten them.

'on balance', I'm pretty sure that most of these 'investors' want more than anything to see a system which will empower the plebs and give them the tools needed to break out of debt slavery and exploitation by...um...

[marcus_of_augustus]

http://www.gizmag.com/cannae-reactionless-drive-space-propulsion/33210/

an armada of BitSats encircling the Earth.

and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

[cypherdoc]

http://www.gizmag.com/cannae-reactionless-drive-space-propulsion/33210/

an armada of BitSats encircling the Earth.

and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

talk about robotics.  these guys are amazing.  maybe they have a future in asteroid mining:

http://geekologie.com/2013/10/boston-dynamics-humanoid-atlas-robot-tac.php

[tvbcof]

http://www.gizmag.com/cannae-reactionless-drive-space-propulsion/33210/

an armada of BitSats encircling the Earth.

and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

Because everyone knows that asteroids, comets, planetoids, moons, etc are primarily composed of gold while containing significant fractions of silver, platinum, and other valuable rare-earth metals as well.  I mean, if these elements are rare here on earth they must be somewhere else instead.  Logic 101.

If I were an investor, it might occur to me that a guy cannot win for loosing here.  That is to say, if one came back with the Nostromo, Rolls-Royce N66 Cyclone thrust engines straining against the mass of all of the gold, and the promise of doing it again and again, the value of gold would likely fall dramatically thus making the investment a loser.  And if the chief warrant officer blew the ship up to try to kill an alien, the results for my bottom line would be even more discouraging.

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

We will need precious & rare metals for industrial purposes, not to store value.

We have a different solution for that. Get on with the program, b.

[tvbcof]

We will need precious & rare metals for industrial purposes, not to store value.

We have a different solution for that. Get on with the program, b.

Industrial purposes like what?  Niobium hyper-drive magnets?  Would not the same basic economic principles apply?

[marcus_of_augustus]

http://www.gizmag.com/cannae-reactionless-drive-space-propulsion/33210/

an armada of BitSats encircling the Earth.

and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

Because everyone knows that asteroids, comets, planetoids, moons, etc are primarily composed of gold while containing significant fractions of silver, platinum, and other valuable rare-earth metals as well.  I mean, if these elements are rare here on earth they must be somewhere else instead.  Logic 101.

... you need to do some more homework instead of demonstrating your ignorance in something outside your field?

Hint: the extreme, and comparatively "unusual" press., temp. history of asteroids (orbiting a star in a vacuum) means indeed they sometimes have pure deposits (i.e. read come and pick me up pure) plat. group metals and other metals in quantities quite uncommon in the Earth's crust, everything else has boiled or sublimated away. What were you expecting Hawaiian volcanic loam? Or Texan alluvial plains? Sheesh. Troll 101.

[tvbcof]

http://www.gizmag.com/cannae-reactionless-drive-space-propulsion/33210/

an armada of BitSats encircling the Earth.

and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

Because everyone knows that asteroids, comets, planetoids, moons, etc are primarily composed of gold while containing significant fractions of silver, platinum, and other valuable rare-earth metals as well.  I mean, if these elements are rare here on earth they must be somewhere else instead.  Logic 101.

... you need to do some more homework instead of demonstrating your ignorance in something outside your field?

Hint: the extreme, and comparatively "unusual" press., temp. history of asteroids (orbiting a star in a vacuum) means indeed they sometimes have pure deposits (i.e. read come and pick me up pure) plat. group metals and other metals in quantities quite uncommon in the Earth's crust, everything else has boiled or sublimated away. What were you expecting Hawaiian volcanic loam? Or Texan alluvial plains? Sheesh. Troll 101.

Thanks for the field report Dr. Spock.

[marcus_of_augustus]

http://www.gizmag.com/cannae-reactionless-drive-space-propulsion/33210/

an armada of BitSats encircling the Earth.

and an armada of robotic mining craft returning from the asteroid belt laden with precious metals .... sometimes the future is closer than is imaginable when the theoretical ground shifts ... other times it is father away when engineering is more difficult than imagined too.

Because everyone knows that asteroids, comets, planetoids, moons, etc are primarily composed of gold while containing significant fractions of silver, platinum, and other valuable rare-earth metals as well.  I mean, if these elements are rare here on earth they must be somewhere else instead.  Logic 101.

... you need to do some more homework instead of demonstrating your ignorance in something outside your field?

Hint: the extreme, and comparatively "unusual" press., temp. history of asteroids (orbiting a star in a vacuum) means indeed they sometimes have pure deposits (i.e. read come and pick me up pure) plat. group metals and other metals in quantities quite uncommon in the Earth's crust, everything else has boiled or sublimated away. What were you expecting Hawaiian volcanic loam? Or Texan alluvial plains? Sheesh. Troll 101.

Thanks for the field report Dr. Spock.

You're welcome cowpoke Earthling. 

[justusranvier]

http://www.gizmag.com/cannae-reactionless-drive-space-propulsion/33210/

Too soon to celebrate.

https://www.reddit.com/r/engineering/comments/2ckcb3/wishful_thinking_confirmation_bias_and_the_emdrive/

[marcus_of_augustus]

http://www.gizmag.com/cannae-reactionless-drive-space-propulsion/33210/

Too soon to celebrate.

https://www.reddit.com/r/engineering/comments/2ckcb3/wishful_thinking_confirmation_bias_and_the_emdrive/

mmm, I know but it bears some watching, the reactions are always informative and the lulz are worth it.

[rocks]

on balance, i think it's too late to make Bitcoin illegal or even put sharp restrictions on it here in the US.  

mainly b/c it's global and their are too many large, legitimate US investors involved already.  think NYSE, NASDAQ, multiple hedge funds, banks, VC funds, and numerous financial luminaries and Wall St folk.  just about the entire Silicon Valley wants it as fintech has been irrationally and unfairly excluded from financial innovation forever.  this is their time.  Wall St has begun to sense the inevitability and are climbing aboard.  there are plenty of overt data points and pending signs.

They definitely won't make it illegal, I'm sorry if that's how what i said came across

Of course you can still use bitcoin, this is the land of the free. However, to stop money laundering and save us from terrorists, drug dealers and sex traffickers everyone has to use this government issued wallet software to transfer bitcoins, which enables tracking of all whitelist coins.

Yes bitcoin will still confirm any transaction, but if you ever transfer one of your whitelist coins from coinbase or your employer to a non-whitelist coin by using your own wallet software, you go to jail. If you own a blacklist coin and try to pay any business, they flag the transfer and you go to jail. Technically bitcoin still works and is still legal, but it has been co-opted. The above scenario also isn't that hard to implement, we already have it with banks and cash.

Yesterday it was the same with gold, they didn't outlaw gold per se, instead they said you had to transfer gold to the gov who gave you an equivalent amount of dollars that were the same as gold, that they could now track within the banks.

Today it is the same with cash, they are not outlawing cash, but any amount or transaction above a nominal amount has to be kept in electronic form in bank accounts, enabling full tracking and ownership by the government, this is today. They could easily legislate this for bitcoin.

The only thing that stops that from happening is a large enough percentage of the population saying no. It sounds that many here think there will be enough who say no, my fear is there isn't.

Also, if this is how it plays out, we'll all be rich as sin. Provided of course that we whitelist our coins and pay our due (taxes). If not, you go to jail. Given this choice I'm sure many here will choose to whitelist their coins and retire. And that is how the government continues to grow.