[XMR] Monero Speculation

[dreamspark]

Speaking of Monero speculation, there doesn't seem to be a lot of speculation in Monero … just a nice steady coin with a thoughtful and focused development team with their eyes on the prize - private transactions and fungability. When the approaching 'Great Deflation' in crypto occurs, I predict Monero will be one of the last coins standing..

But I am just speculating …

 
  
Looking at the all time price chart the other day I realized that no one has really made any money on Monero yet...  Well, not crazy 10x or 100x money.  As fluffy has said, the primary motivation for this is to be a currency, not get rich, but if we are lucky enough to be the premier private global ledger then we will need to be "inflated" enough to be able to send a billion dollars or two across the blockchain without any severe volatility occurring from someone buying in or selling out.  
  
That can only mean one thing, and the greedy human in me likes it.  The philanthropist is keeping him on a tight leash though, and thinking of things like Job Centers for the homeless and pay-what-you-want restaurants.

Early miners?

Very early miners made some (I was one of them), and some very early buyers too, but the price and hash rate of the coin skyrocketed pretty fast, so both were short-lived opportunities and didn't involve that many coins.

Within two weeks of launch it already traded at 0.0017 BTC, and BTC was more like 500 USD, making that a loss today (and for most of the history) in USD terms. (old OTC thread)

dga and his miner optimizing effort made about 100-200K USD, I think (I'm not sure he's ever said how much they made exactly but that was the impression I got).

If you traded on the swings well you could have made a bit of money, especially on the Mintpal pump up to 0.01.

But it is true that no BIG money has been made on this coin yet.

Yes and no. As an early miner on ec2 I certainly made good money. At one point one of the miners had over half the hashrate and a quarter of a mil ec2 bill. The same miner also sold me 30k+ coins at 0.0008 when cryptonote exchange dipped that low. Playing the several swings from 0.001-0.002 that we had plus offloading a nice amount during the mintpal pump has certainly made it a profitable coin to say the least. Big money as in millions ? Probably not. Big money as in 10's or 100's of thousands. Sure. Also depends on if you held btc or cashed out to fiat. 30k coins at 0.0008 to 0.008-0.01 was approx 24btc - 200+btc. Selling that profit at $500 per btc = $100,000.

The post that you're quoting already acknowledges that people have made up to 100-200k. He's simply not considering that to be BIG money.

I'm quoting the conversation but clearly mainly replying to the poster saying nobodies made 10x or 100x gains. Which isn't true. I'm adding another perspective giving my first hand experience plus smooth is saying he thinks that's how much dga made from the impression he got not how much he knows he made.

Whats your problem?

[1714737703]

1714737703

[smooth]

Yes and no. As an early miner on ec2 I certainly made good money. At one point one of the miners had over half the hashrate and a quarter of a mil ec2 bill. The same miner also sold me 30k+ coins at 0.0008 when cryptonote exchange dipped that low. Playing the several swings from 0.001-0.002 that we had plus offloading a nice amount during the mintpal pump has certainly made it a profitable coin to say the least. Big money as in millions ? Probably not. Big money as in 10's or 100's of thousands. Sure. Also depends on if you held btc or cashed out to fiat. 30k coins at 0.0008 to 0.008-0.01 was approx 24btc - 200+btc. Selling that profit at $500 per btc = $100,000.

Well work it out. If someone had a quarter of a mil ec2 bill then to make even 10x much less 100x the cash out would have had to have been $2.5 mil. That's selling 500k coins right at the top (0.01 XMR and $500 BTC = $5 XMR). That's theoretically possible I suppose but it would have had to have been some incredible (and improbable) timing.

Now all things are possible in trading. The price went from <0.001 to 0.01 so I'm sure someone made >10x. Same with mining. But it just wouldn't have been large quantities. In the first two weeks before the price reached 0.0017 only a total of 350k coins were mined, divided up among a significant number of miners. Once the price started trading in the 0.001-0.002 range the maximum possible you were going to make on a trade, selling at the very top, would be 5-10x. Some of those were using ec2 as you say, so a significant chunk of it went to Amazon, limiting potential profits (you've identified $250k, and I'm sure there was more than just that one person doing it).

Now if you compare any of that to other coins like BTC, LTC or several others where you could have bought or mined a lot of coins and then have the price later do a 100x or more return on you, its a pretty different situation. XMR gained a significant (and even high by current standards) value so early there just wasn't time for to accumulate a lot at much below the current price.

Anyway, I guess it depends what you consider big money (whether in USD, BTC, or % terms), so that's pretty subjective.

[dreamspark]

Yes and no. As an early miner on ec2 I certainly made good money. At one point one of the miners had over half the hashrate and a quarter of a mil ec2 bill. The same miner also sold me 30k+ coins at 0.0008 when cryptonote exchange dipped that low. Playing the several swings from 0.001-0.002 that we had plus offloading a nice amount during the mintpal pump has certainly made it a profitable coin to say the least. Big money as in millions ? Probably not. Big money as in 10's or 100's of thousands. Sure. Also depends on if you held btc or cashed out to fiat. 30k coins at 0.0008 to 0.008-0.01 was approx 24btc - 200+btc. Selling that profit at $500 per btc = $100,000.

Well work it out. If someone had a quarter of a mil ec2 bill then to make even 10x much less 100x the cash out would have had to have been $2.5 mil. That's selling 500k coins right at the top (0.01 XMR and $500 BTC = $5 XMR). That's theoretically possible I suppose but it would have had to have been some incredible (and improbable) timing.

Now all things are possible in trading. The price went from <0.001 to 0.01 so I'm sure someone made >10x. Same with mining. But it just wouldn't have been large quantities. In the first two weeks before the price reached 0.0017 only a total of 350k coins were mined, divided up among a significant number of miners. Some of those were using ec2 as you say, so a significant chunk of it went to Amazon, limiting potential profits (you've identified $250k, and I'm sure there was more than just that one person doing it).

Anyway, I guess it depends what you consider big money (whether in USD, BTC, or % terms), so that's pretty subjective.

I'm more arguing the point that one of the posters made saying nobody has made any real money out of XMR yet, that's simply not true. Could someone with a quarter mil amazon bill over the course of several months made 100-200k, easily. Could someone have traded 10x - 50x+ with well timed buys and sells over the course of XMR's life span (obviously their main chunk of coins would have had to have been bought or mined right at the beginning ) absolutely. So yeah, it comes back to what you consider big money, unless your a multi millionaire 100k-200k is big money in most peoples books.

[smooth]

Yes and no. As an early miner on ec2 I certainly made good money. At one point one of the miners had over half the hashrate and a quarter of a mil ec2 bill. The same miner also sold me 30k+ coins at 0.0008 when cryptonote exchange dipped that low. Playing the several swings from 0.001-0.002 that we had plus offloading a nice amount during the mintpal pump has certainly made it a profitable coin to say the least. Big money as in millions ? Probably not. Big money as in 10's or 100's of thousands. Sure. Also depends on if you held btc or cashed out to fiat. 30k coins at 0.0008 to 0.008-0.01 was approx 24btc - 200+btc. Selling that profit at $500 per btc = $100,000.

Well work it out. If someone had a quarter of a mil ec2 bill then to make even 10x much less 100x the cash out would have had to have been $2.5 mil. That's selling 500k coins right at the top (0.01 XMR and $500 BTC = $5 XMR). That's theoretically possible I suppose but it would have had to have been some incredible (and improbable) timing.

Now all things are possible in trading. The price went from <0.001 to 0.01 so I'm sure someone made >10x. Same with mining. But it just wouldn't have been large quantities. In the first two weeks before the price reached 0.0017 only a total of 350k coins were mined, divided up among a significant number of miners. Some of those were using ec2 as you say, so a significant chunk of it went to Amazon, limiting potential profits (you've identified $250k, and I'm sure there was more than just that one person doing it).

Anyway, I guess it depends what you consider big money (whether in USD, BTC, or % terms), so that's pretty subjective.

I'm more arguing the point that one of the posters made saying nobody has made any real money out of XMR yet, that's simply not true. Could someone with a quarter mil amazon bill over the course of several months made 100-200k, easily.

Sure, but that's not even a 2x return!

Could someone have traded 10x - 50x+ with well timed buys and sells over the course of XMR's life span (obviously their main chunk of coins would have had to have been bought or mined right at the beginning ) absolutely. So yeah, it comes back to what you consider big money, unless your a multi millionaire 100k-200k is big money in most peoples books.

Sure, it's just that in this (cryptocurrency mining and trading) context when you have the history of BTC, LTC, etc. to compare, the standards of what making a lot means, especially in percentage terms for early miners, are quite high. The number of people who could have even possibly made 100-200K+ is quite limited when you look at the total value of the coin (only $5 million today) and the narrow timing factors necessary to do really well. I mean we were talking about one of those swings being selling at 0.01, the absolute peak -- how many coins even traded at that price? Not very many.

[rpietila]

I think the guy came public who commanded ~40% of the hash rate during 2 months when the price was at its highest. And that netted him $150k, which is good money, but also definitely the best money anyone has made on XMR so far.

[rpietila]

XMR liquidity in the Poloniex exchange is low. I need to make some high-volume trades for a client who requires public record of the transactions. So how about we all slowly gather to Poloniex, and are ready with our XMR so that the trades can happen?!

[dreamspark]

Sure, but that's not even a 2x return!

The point being made was nobody's made any real money out of XMR 2x $100,000? 90% of the posters here drool over the thought of that much money.

 I mean we were talking about one of those swings being selling at 0.01, the absolute peak -- how many coins even traded at that price? Not very many.

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually.

Digging deeper into the peak, we were at or around it (within 20%)  for approx 10 hours during which time there was 100's of btc volume. Same again with the fact this was also happening at mintpal.

[smooth]

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually

Not all those traded at 0.01, but close. Still, I'm surprised to learn it was that much. I never saw the 1000+ BTC volume numbers on Polo, I guess I just wasn't paying very close attention. Crazy times.

[rpietila]

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually

Not all those traded at 0.01, but close. Still, I'm surprised to learn it was that much. I never saw the 1000+ BTC volume numbers on Polo, I guess I just wasn't paying very close attention. Crazy times.

1011 BTC worth of XMR (118,071 XMR) was traded at the average price of 0.00856 BTC/XMR that day. If you fantasize about someone being able to buy low and sell at the peak, please use the average instead of the peak for sums that are <5% of the daily volume (ie max 6,000 XMR). If the sum is larger, you need to apply a discount to the daily average to get an actionable figure. It is hardly possible that a peak in price would have coincided to one player selling more than 10% of the volume anyway.

Thus a well-executed swing trade would have been possible to buy at about 0.00220 and sell 0.00856, for the amount of 6,000 XMR. This would have yielded BTC38, given perfect timing on both ends.

[pandher]

The point being made was nobody's made any real money out of XMR 2x $100,000? 90% of the posters here drool over the thought of that much money.

100k-200k is nothing if we truly understand the scope of technology we are talking about.

[Abiky]

Let's wait and see for Monero to reach at least $1. There would be good profits...I dunno 

[jehst]

Speaking of Monero speculation, there doesn't seem to be a lot of speculation in Monero … just a nice steady coin with a thoughtful and focused development team with their eyes on the prize - private transactions and fungability. When the approaching 'Great Deflation' in crypto occurs, I predict Monero will be one of the last coins standing..

But I am just speculating …

 
  
Looking at the all time price chart the other day I realized that no one has really made any money on Monero yet...  Well, not crazy 10x or 100x money.  As fluffy has said, the primary motivation for this is to be a currency, not get rich, but if we are lucky enough to be the premier private global ledger then we will need to be "inflated" enough to be able to send a billion dollars or two across the blockchain without any severe volatility occurring from someone buying in or selling out.  
  
That can only mean one thing, and the greedy human in me likes it.  The philanthropist is keeping him on a tight leash though, and thinking of things like Job Centers for the homeless and pay-what-you-want restaurants.

Early miners?

Very early miners made some (I was one of them), and some very early buyers too, but the price and hash rate of the coin skyrocketed pretty fast, so both were short-lived opportunities and didn't involve that many coins.

Within two weeks of launch it already traded at 0.0017 BTC, and BTC was more like 500 USD, making that a loss today (and for most of the history) in USD terms. (old OTC thread)

dga and his miner optimizing effort made about 100-200K USD, I think (I'm not sure he's ever said how much they made exactly but that was the impression I got).

If you traded on the swings well you could have made a bit of money, especially on the Mintpal pump up to 0.01.

But it is true that no BIG money has been made on this coin yet.

Yes and no. As an early miner on ec2 I certainly made good money. At one point one of the miners had over half the hashrate and a quarter of a mil ec2 bill. The same miner also sold me 30k+ coins at 0.0008 when cryptonote exchange dipped that low. Playing the several swings from 0.001-0.002 that we had plus offloading a nice amount during the mintpal pump has certainly made it a profitable coin to say the least. Big money as in millions ? Probably not. Big money as in 10's or 100's of thousands. Sure. Also depends on if you held btc or cashed out to fiat. 30k coins at 0.0008 to 0.008-0.01 was approx 24btc - 200+btc. Selling that profit at $500 per btc = $100,000.

The post that you're quoting already acknowledges that people have made up to 100-200k. He's simply not considering that to be BIG money.

I'm quoting the conversation but clearly mainly replying to the poster saying nobodies made 10x or 100x gains. Which isn't true. I'm adding another perspective giving my first hand experience plus smooth is saying he thinks that's how much dga made from the impression he got not how much he knows he made.

Whats your problem?

No problem. I'm just saying that no one has made any real money when you look at even the best case scenarios considering the volume traded.  But this is optimistic. It means that we, as pioneers, can earn the first XMR fortunes.

[dreamspark]

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually

Not all those traded at 0.01, but close. Still, I'm surprised to learn it was that much. I never saw the 1000+ BTC volume numbers on Polo, I guess I just wasn't paying very close attention. Crazy times.

1011 BTC worth of XMR (118,071 XMR) was traded at the average price of 0.00856 BTC/XMR that day. If you fantasize about someone being able to buy low and sell at the peak, please use the average instead of the peak for sums that are <5% of the daily volume (ie max 6,000 XMR). If the sum is larger, you need to apply a discount to the daily average to get an actionable figure. It is hardly possible that a peak in price would have coincided to one player selling more than 10% of the volume anyway.

Thus a well-executed swing trade would have been possible to buy at about 0.00220 and sell 0.00856, for the amount of 6,000 XMR. This would have yielded BTC38, given perfect timing on both ends.

So your saying that nobody sold more than 6k at a price above 0.00856. Despite the price being above that figure for 8+ hours, there being several 100 btc volume and the fact as I said there was around the same sort of volume on mintpal (in fact if I remember rightly mintpal hit higher than 0.01)

LOL 

People were buying AND MINING a lot lower than 0.0022 for a significant period of time. Lets also not forget there was a chance to 2x - 3x your money during 2-4 swings between 0.001 and 0.002 and 2 swings between 0.003 and 0.008.

[dreamspark]

The point being made was nobody's made any real money out of XMR 2x $100,000? 90% of the posters here drool over the thought of that much money.

100k-200k is nothing if we truly understand the scope of technology we are talking about.

I guess this is one of the key points. Hopefully we'll look back and laugh about a handful of people making a few 100k. My issue is just with propagating this idea that there hasnt been some 'big' (depending on your definition of big) money already been made with this coin.

[saddambitcoin]

Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually.

XMR was not traded on Mintpal at the time of the rally to 0.01, IIRC the rally was hyped because of Mintpal anticipation.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Recently as Monero has declined the volumes are low but when the price rises the volumes are usually larger. This shows to me the bears are weaker than the bulls. A part of the reason for this (who wants to dump XMR at these lows) is the declining block reward which has dropped almost 50 % from the launch.

[thefunkybits]

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually

Not all those traded at 0.01, but close. Still, I'm surprised to learn it was that much. I never saw the 1000+ BTC volume numbers on Polo, I guess I just wasn't paying very close attention. Crazy times.

1011 BTC worth of XMR (118,071 XMR) was traded at the average price of 0.00856 BTC/XMR that day. If you fantasize about someone being able to buy low and sell at the peak, please use the average instead of the peak for sums that are <5% of the daily volume (ie max 6,000 XMR). If the sum is larger, you need to apply a discount to the daily average to get an actionable figure. It is hardly possible that a peak in price would have coincided to one player selling more than 10% of the volume anyway.

So your saying that nobody sold more than 6k at a price above 0.00856. Despite the price being above that figure for 8+ hours, there being several 100 btc volume and the fact as I said there was around the same sort of volume on mintpal (in fact if I remember rightly mintpal hit higher than 0.01)

I think youre misinterpreting what hes saying.
120K XMR were sold around 0.007 - 0.01 at an average of 0.00856.
A maximum of 6000 XMR could be traded at the peak (so 0.01)

[rpietila]

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually

Not all those traded at 0.01, but close. Still, I'm surprised to learn it was that much. I never saw the 1000+ BTC volume numbers on Polo, I guess I just wasn't paying very close attention. Crazy times.

1011 BTC worth of XMR (118,071 XMR) was traded at the average price of 0.00856 BTC/XMR that day. If you fantasize about someone being able to buy low and sell at the peak, please use the average instead of the peak for sums that are <5% of the daily volume (ie max 6,000 XMR). If the sum is larger, you need to apply a discount to the daily average to get an actionable figure. It is hardly possible that a peak in price would have coincided to one player selling more than 10% of the volume anyway.

Thus a well-executed swing trade would have been possible to buy at about 0.00220 and sell 0.00856, for the amount of 6,000 XMR. This would have yielded BTC38, given perfect timing on both ends.

So your saying that nobody sold more than 6k at a price above 0.00856.

Dude, I have probably traded more XMR in Poloniex than you. I am saying that there are certain practical limits for entering/exiting a position and one is that if you don't normally have trading volume, and suddenly want to buy/sell a higher % of the daily volume than 5%, it affects the price. You can try it safely any time by deciding a 2-week period, and trying to buy/sell 70,000 XMR at a better price than the weighted average during the time.

You can't do it.

As for the rest of my post, I am trying to bring the voice of reason and introduce scenarios that have let's say at least a 50% chance of actually having happened last summer. The others can bring in the theoretical edge cases, if that's their speciality.

[dreamspark]

Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually.

XMR was not traded on Mintpal at the time of the rally to 0.01, IIRC the rally was hyped because of Mintpal anticipation.

Hmmmm.

Just looked. Yes you're right my mistake, it was Trex that was also trading XMR at the time and that did have several 100btc of volume around that high.

[blacky90]

How high do you guys estimate the probability that monero will be tradet above $20 in the next 2 years?