[XMR] Monero Speculation

[dEBRUYNE]

Geez ... WTH happened ?

Seems someone dumped 40k XMR at about 0.0018-0.0016  half day ago. There was not much Buy orders. I guess if there would be he would not do it. But not sure if he will be able to buy it back at lower price.

I am very sure that if we rebound, there is no buying back cheaper. Either the seller was a miner who had accumulated too much and become queasy, or is playing on the descent to a lower price level around 0.001, or just needed money. Short term play it was not.

(I was not there so these are armchair comments), but the trigger sale was not the same as the full amount, some short covering resulted when the price temporarily dropped to the "soft" area below all the near-market bids.

If you look at the 1m candles you can see that first ~11k was dumped, then ~6k and the remainder (around 20k) are probably margin calls. Most likely scenario in my opinion is that someone borrowed a lot of XMR to short. Also, the orderbook was very thinnish, so it was pretty easy to profit from a big short (I am implying here that a relatively large amount had a lot of impact on the price and also induced a lot of margin calls). Just look at the lending rates, they are skyhigh, whereas they normally were very low and there was always large quantity of XMR avaible (20-30k). Note: the top offer just got added while I was making screenshots, so ignore that.

EDIT: Some additional evidence: (times are GMT+2)

[10:22:02] <Bassica> wow, all loans of xmr have been taken out
[10:22:13] <Bassica> only 800 being offered for more than 2% a day

P.S. I am also guessing this was probably done by an outsider wanting to make a quick buck (or someone wanting to hurt the Monero price). Why would an XMR whale/holder borrow XMR to short if he could've just used his own? That just makes no sense in my opinion.

P.P.S. I am also warning all of you that this is what could happen if you put your XMR up for borrowing at poloniex. Better to keep them in cold storage. Furthermore, the interest rate you get for it is pretty negligible in contrast with what could happen if you put your XMR there.

[ArticMine]

All of this while 0.9 is close to release. Hmm ...

[jehst]

How high does the price of XMR have to go to margin call him?

[djjacket]

How high does the price of XMR have to go to margin call him?

Depends if he is max leveraged.  If he has reserves, then it may not be possible.

[Bassica]

Remember kids, short sellers have to buy back in at some point

[jehst]

Zerocash article made it to the top of /r/bitcoin. So those who don't follow this space closely are only now finding out about it.

Someone could be placing a bet based on the theory that Zerocash will dominate the privacy coin space and that XMR will suffer as a result.

[Melbustus]

...
Someone could be placing a bet based on the theory that Zerocash will dominate the privacy coin space and that XMR will suffer as a result.

I think it's pretty clear that's roughly what's happening. That, and a little more chatter about potentially adding fungibility solutions around bitcoin itself.

I posted about this in /r/monero to try and get a better handle on the implications. Some interesting responses: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3ms2ot/the_arguments_against_monero/

[SimpleIn]

There’s a place where you could buy silver Monero coins. They look very shiny and good to collect. You can check it out here: https://cryptonic.net/product/order/5/ Hope this helps. 

Of course there is the problem of ensuring that only the bearer of the coin has access to the private key - what is needed is some method of storing as many XMR as there are ounces of silver in the coin, and *then* ensuring that the user can set a private password securing the onboard Monero. 

Fluffy is already on it. Check this thread:
Creating a standard for physical coins (forum.getmonero.org)

Nice!

The next shipment of the coins is scheduled for the beginning of October. Today is the best time to order for the fastest delivery. 

Hodl Hodl Hodl

[medusa13]

All of this while 0.9 is close to release. Hmm ...

is it really?
this means the hard fork code will be included but not activated? this is the only way, since the hardfork will happen in 6 months, thats a long time.

sorry guys but i am confused about this.(and i do think its price relevant).
timing of the dump is not a coincidence, after i've read smooths post about the hardfork date dumping some was my first thought too to be honest...

is it time now for the community 0.01g XAU fix?

[dEBRUYNE]

All of this while 0.9 is close to release. Hmm ...

is it really?
this means the hard fork code will be included but not activated? this is the only way, since the hardfork will happen in 6 months, thats a long time.

sorry guys but i am confused about this.(and i do think its price relevant).
timing of the dump is not a coincidence, after i've read smooths post about the hardfork date dumping some was my first thought too to be honest...

is it time now for the community 0.01g XAU fix?

Could you elaborate on this? Btw, it would be nice if we could slam that wall at 17 today, would at least bring us back above previous support (16..

@jehst & melbustus, I don't think ZeroCash's announement currently has a big impact on the price. Like I said before, it was probably someone hunting longs, although I must admit we had been sliding a bit before that. Furthermore, many proper reasons by various prominent members have been laid out why ZeroCash wouldn't threat Monero.

[GingerAle]

All of this while 0.9 is close to release. Hmm ...

is it really?
this means the hard fork code will be included but not activated? this is the only way, since the hardfork will happen in 6 months, thats a long time.

sorry guys but i am confused about this.(and i do think its price relevant).
timing of the dump is not a coincidence, after i've read smooths post about the hardfork date dumping some was my first thought too to be honest...

is it time now for the community 0.01g XAU fix?

No idea what that is.

Re: hardfork date..... why would that encourage you to dump? The 6 month rolling hardfork has been in discussion for a while.

[XMRpromotions]

C'mon man, thats not the monero way!  

This is the monero way! >>> https://forum.getmonero.org/6/ideas/2392/privately-donate-to-privacy-oriented-services

Great idea, particularly the part about helping them get set up. Not every merchant and charity is tech savvy enough to do so on their own. I hope this idea gets funding (xmr and pledges for technical help) soon.

https://twitter.com/XMRpromotions/status/648353833769238528

Some examples of privacy oriented services/projects and their donate pages:

    https://www.torproject.org/donate/donate-options.html.en
    https://www.torservers.net/donate.html
    https://geti2p.net/en/get-involved/donate
    https://protonmail.ch/donate
    https://tutanota.com/community#donate
    https://tails.boum.org/contribute/how/donate/index.en.html
    https://www.whonix.org/wiki/Donate
    https://www.guerrillamail.com/
    http://sigaintevyh2rzvw.onion/faq.html

So if someone is using them, and would like to and is able to support them, maybe it would be worth telling them about xmr support.

I will send at least one message to everyone on the above list this week. Who else is willing to to the same?

Count me in.

Same.

Okay I contacted them! For those that are on Twitter you can see my tweets here:
https://twitter.com/XMRpromotions/with_replies

Some of them I have already talked to by direct message with mixed responses. Others I contacted by email. Be sure to let them know that we have people who can help them set up the donation interface if they just ask!

getI2P should be an easy sell since we plan to use I2P
Tutanota showed some interest in the past

Contact all of the above plus any more you can think of! Donation acceptance should be an easy sell to privacy focused organizations!

https://twitter.com/Puri_sm (privacy focused laptops) is also interested in accepting bbr and xmr (bbr shared the lead with us) payments. They said to contact https://twitter.com/crowd_supply who handles their btc payments for them now

You realise that you're shooting yourself in the foot in regards to labour spent and success just as long as you're contacting everyone with XMRPromotions as your handle.... right? In fact, I'd probably hazard a guess that the labour injected is actually generating more auto-toxic results than positive ones.

So I'm walking along the street and a guy comes up to me and he's wearing a lime green cap, and a lime green T-shirt with white lettering, and lime green shorts, and he's handing out lime green flyers, and he's smiling and he says "Excuse me sir have you...." - -

"NOOO." I would say. "Sorry I'm in a rush I've got an appointment with a dentist who's just died and he's on fire and I... sorry... bye."

He could have just been asking for the time for all I care, but it's "NOOOOooo sorryyyyy bbye bye".

Now consider, a man with a NORMAL haircut, wearing NORMAL clothes, and for all intents looking NORMAL, with a NORMAL attitude and everything about this guy is just NORMAL..... and he comes up to me and he's like "Hey do you have the time?"

"Yes." I would say, "It's 2:15."

"Thankyou o wise one." he might retort.

"Anytime o inquisitive one. My pleasure indeed." I might add. etc etc etc etc

The moral of the story is: Why are you dressed up in a lime green T-shirt?

Just take it off man, seriously, you'd have more results. This isn't some cunting multinational corporation that despatches students to stand on street corners handing out advertisments.

It's a waste of labour relative to success. Just take out the crap and you're good to go.

Good post rangedriver! I agree.

But I would also like to commend "xmrpromotion's" effort very much. He's doing a good job! And best of all, he takes the community critique/suggestions seriously, and improves his approach when suggestions are given. Many more people should do like that.

Hey xmrpromotions..? Yes, you! You are doing a fine job, keep improving, keep up the effort. The more effort that is done, the more it inspires others to do more too.

Thank you. As others have pointed out I sometimes may make errors of judgement but do listen to community feedback.

I am happy to see that Tutanota has responded to our request. Lets keep in contact with them to ensure they receive all the assistance they need. Other privacy focused businesses may follow the lead of Tutanota if all goes according to plan.
https://tutanota.uservoice.com/forums/237921-general/suggestions/9968298-accept-monero-xmr-for-donations

Lets keep the momentum going!

Keep contacting the organizations on the list above and share the links to make voting/retweeting, etc. easy for community members.  We can accelerate merchant adoption by being proactive. I see no reason why we should sit and wait for merchants to approach us.

[medusa13]

smooth said yesterday that the hardfork will happen in 6 months. Implementing the recommendations from MRL0004 is important, so it is clear that the price somehow reacts to this "delay" (its not a delay, they had just wrong expectations i guess)

to me personally there is also the fact that some comments from fluffy are disturbing(at least to me, maybe its also the language), like the quote about zerocash. to me sometimes it seems like he allready made up his mind about how "a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money".

i do not think zerocash played a role in the decision to dump it down.

maybe the devs are just too honest, something we are really not used to in this space

@Ginger: the speculation was that this hardfork maybe will roll out without the 6 months softfork time, because it is too important (its no my speculation, so i just guess)

ah and btw. XAU is gold. 1 gramm of gold is ~36usd. so 0.01g gold (XAU) would be the price for the community fix   (not my idea, aminorex mentioned once to fix monero pirce in gold)

would never dump it down like that, also not at 0.1g <3

and the last edit: since there is evidence that the dumper sold on margin, my theory is flawed anyway. shame on you polo for STILL not publishing the numbers!!!!

[fox19891989]

Geez ... WTH happened ?

Seems someone dumped 40k XMR at about 0.0018-0.0016  half day ago. There was not much Buy orders. I guess if there would be he would not do it. But not sure if he will be able to buy it back at lower price.

I am very sure that if we rebound, there is no buying back cheaper. Either the seller was a miner who had accumulated too much and become queasy, or is playing on the descent to a lower price level around 0.001, or just needed money. Short term play it was not.

(I was not there so these are armchair comments), but the trigger sale was not the same as the full amount, some short covering resulted when the price temporarily dropped to the "soft" area below all the near-market bids.

Currently we need to have more buy walls to get their coins, we can keep the price, I think XMR will be back to 0.002 again very soon, which is the reasonable price for XMR, and big holders like you can help set more buy walls and buy more. 

[Abiky]

Let's hope for 2016 to be the year of Monero. Maybe it will get to at least $1 per XMR in the next year. That's why it's good to buy more when price is really cheap right now to reap on the benefits in the future. There's been a feature that I've been fascinated of Monero and that it's true anonymity when compared to Bitcoin. Privacy is essential these days, especially when NSA spies on you in every transaction, like Bitcoin. 

[nioc]

I hope you guys are having fun today!  I have not been able to partake.  I was out of the house within a half an hour this morning and have been on the road for work the last 9 hours with no end in sight.   all I can do is follow the forum and I'm posting while driving.

I am NOT on polo so it's a little more difficult for me and as always my timing is impeccable :-(

[kazuki49]

[iCEBREAKER]

[10:22:02] <Bassica> wow, all loans of xmr have been taken out
[10:22:13] <Bassica> only 800 being offered for more than 2% a day

Thanks for the info.

I suspected a pissed-off NXT/VNL/NAUT/DASH shitcoiner wanted revenge for their scam being exposed, and simply borrowed almost every available XMR to dump short.  We should be thanking them for the CH33P C01NZ.

I do the same thing to DASH once in a while, if its price looks more irrationally exuberant than normal.   

[smoothie]

Zerocash article made it to the top of /r/bitcoin. So those who don't follow this space closely are only now finding out about it.

Someone could be placing a bet based on the theory that Zerocash will dominate the privacy coin space and that XMR will suffer as a result.

If I'm not mistaken zerocash will be released as an altcoin.

It has been over a year and no release...just more talks and presentations.

[Lebubar]

[10:22:02] <Bassica> wow, all loans of xmr have been taken out
[10:22:13] <Bassica> only 800 being offered for more than 2% a day

Thanks for the info.

I suspected a pissed-off NXT/VNL/NAUT/DASH shitcoiner wanted revenge for their scam being exposed, and simply borrowed almost every available XMR to dump short.  We should be thanking them for the CH33P C01NZ.

I do the same thing to DASH once in a while, if its price looks more irrationally exuberant than normal.   

LOL

You're a dickhead confirmed!

Re-LOL.