Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[Xenland]

I'm just going to chime in here quickly..

I subscribed to the private service for the first few months, and was very happy with the detailed analysis. I do understand it takes a significant amount of time to provide such a service, and I do trust the advice given both here publicly and in the subscription service.

However, because of the cost and the fact I am a very low volume trader I have decided not to renew. For those interested who do move a fair bit of volume I would highly recommend the services offered. If I was in a position to be more involved in the market I would not think twice about signing up again.

I will miss the faster updates and more in depth analysis than is provided publicly.

S3052, your providing a fantastic service here, please do keep up the good work. Hopefully sometime I will be in a position to increase my exposure and will most certainly get myself back on your subscription service.

Cheers
-Digigami

Thanks for the encouraging words. You and others are always welcome to join the subscribers. I just issued the weekly report with a longterm outlook and 3 major options.

Maybe yo could offer a "basic" analysis for cheaper. I dont trade but like to know wgats going on in the market to keep track of bitcoins success and for planning my bussiness beter. If you have a cheap plan i would seriously consider subcribing

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[S3052]

Just updated the bitcoin watch part with a brief review:

http://bit.ly/nsteB3


And yes, I am thinking about refining our offers including rates. You will hear from us in the next 7-10 days.

[FlipPro]

Just updated the bitcoin watch part with a brief review:

http://bit.ly/nsteB3


And yes, I am thinking about refining our offers including rates. You will hear from us in the next 7-10 days.

s305 I would also like your technical analysis but it's just to expensive for me ATM. Let us know when you come up with some new packages.

[zby]

Isn't it the first time that the main poll answer is Down?

[coined]

It's the first time I have voted down,

I think we are in for a big drop, Think we need to hit a low that lets everyone know the bottom has been found, before we can move on

[molecular]

And yes, I am thinking about refining our offers including rates. You will hear from us in the next 7-10 days.

Cool!

[allinvain]

You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?

[piramida]

You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?

more or less, yes. may fall through to 5 but most probable is a shar turn from 7, depends on how fast wires would clear

[marcus_of_augustus]

You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?

Got a sensible figure for average cost of production?

[kokjo]

You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?

Got a sensible figure for average cost of production?

the avarage cost of production of a $100 bill, is very very small. still its worth $100

[ThomasV]

the average cost of production of a $100 bill, is very very small. still its worth $100

Good point.
Let me add that the average cost of production of the smoke created by the combustion of a $100 bill is, for most people, slightly above $100.
Yet that smoke is worth almost zero.

[marcus_of_augustus]

You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?

Got a sensible figure for average cost of production?

the avarage cost of production of a $100 bill, is very very small. still its worth $100

So you haven't got the slightest, foggiest notion about the average cost of production of a bitcoin?

[kokjo]

You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?

Got a sensible figure for average cost of production?

the avarage cost of production of a $100 bill, is very very small. still its worth $100

So you haven't got the slightest, foggiest notion about the average cost of production of a bitcoin?

yes i do, around $4-5, right now. if it is all time, then its more like $0.5 because of all the difficulty-1 block.
any way the production cost does not matter, because we bitcoins, have a very low overall supply of them.
there will only be 21millions of them.
if you think bitcoins are worthless, why are you still here?

[proudhon]

the average cost of production of a $100 bill, is very very small. still its worth $100

Good point.
Let me add that the average cost of production of the smoke created by the combustion of a $100 bill is, for most people, slightly above $100.
Yet that smoke is worth almost zero.

LOL

[marcus_of_augustus]

You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?

Got a sensible figure for average cost of production?

the avarage cost of production of a $100 bill, is very very small. still its worth $100

So you haven't got the slightest, foggiest notion about the average cost of production of a bitcoin?

yes i do, around $4-5, right now. if it is all time, then its more like $0.5 because of all the difficulty-1 block.
any way the production cost does not matter, because we bitcoins, have a very low overall supply of them.
there will only be 21millions of them.
if you think bitcoins are worthless, why are you still here?

Thnx, for figuring that out for me.  ... bit lazy like that.

Now isn't it interesting that the $5 cost of production level is pretty damned close to the recent bottom that usd/btc just put in?

Cost of production does matter just not in the way you might think .... if you've had anything to do with resource extraction economics you'll know exactly what I mean (otherwise you have some fair amount of research ahead of you).

I never said anything about btc being worthless so have no idea where you are coming from with that last statement. (they are worth exactly what someone is willing to exchange with you for them ... supply and demand).

Network enforced scarcity.

[kokjo]

Thnx, for figuring that out for me.  ... bit lazy like that.

me too, i just did remember a thread where they where crying about it, and did some math about it.

Now isn't it interesting that the $5 cost of production level is pretty damned close to the recent bottom that usd/btc just put in?

why is that? so because some random speculator panicked, and dumped a lot of coins, its the production cost?
doesn't really make sense.

Cost of production does matter just not in the way you might think .... if you've had anything to do with resource extraction economics you'll know exactly what I mean (otherwise you have some fair amount of research ahead of you).

it would matter if it was a resource that we did use. like oil. and random economics does not apply to bitcoin. bitcoin haves a whole set of economic-theory-breaking stuff. like difficulty. you don't have that when you are mining for gold. gold is not easier to get when there are less there are mining it.

I never said anything about btc being worthless so have no idea where you are coming from with that last statement. (they are worth exactly what someone is willing to exchange with you for them ... supply and demand).

sorry about that. it just felt like you where screaming like all the other noobs about: "bitcoins is backed by nothing, or at least processing power, it is therefor useless!!!!!"

[mobodick]

Here is tonight's Bitcoin technical and market update.

Please donate here if you wish to see it continued:

14TeeHy4igXUgfnjXmCFG5MwkcRKZRkprS

here is the link to view the charts: http://bit.ly/q3UQ9W

Longterm: UP.

Midterm: UP as long as the 9.5 $ - 10 $ range holds

Shortterm: UP from the 12.5 $ low and down sloping channel resistance.

This was not correct.  Just sayin'.

Yeah, bitcoin is not stable enough to be properly analyzed.
Anyone hitting it with math to find the future in the long term will propably fail at doing so consistently.
You see, individuals can have a far to great influence on the price.
There isnt a stable portion of the traders behaving as a mass and so any assumptions made about masses behaving will fail.
And since the price is decided, ultimately, by behaviour it is kindof strange to see people trying to abstract the hell out of bitcoin while they're dealing with more individualism and less group behaviour than their math has been tuned to.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Thnx, for figuring that out for me.  ... bit lazy like that.

me too, i just did remember a thread where they where crying about it, and did some math about it.

Now isn't it interesting that the $5 cost of production level is pretty damned close to the recent bottom that usd/btc just put in?

why is that? so because some random speculator panicked, and dumped a lot of coins, its the production cost?
doesn't really make sense.

Cost of production does matter just not in the way you might think .... if you've had anything to do with resource extraction economics you'll know exactly what I mean (otherwise you have some fair amount of research ahead of you).

it would matter if it was a resource that we did use. like oil. and random economics does not apply to bitcoin. bitcoin haves a whole set of economic-theory-breaking stuff. like difficulty. you don't have that when you are mining for gold. gold is not easier to get when there are less there are mining it.

I never said anything about btc being worthless so have no idea where you are coming from with that last statement. (they are worth exactly what someone is willing to exchange with you for them ... supply and demand).

sorry about that. it just felt like you where screaming like all the other noobs about: "bitcoins is backed by nothing, or at least processing power, it is therefor useless!!!!!"

Too much of what you said above is wrong for me to bother with replying to all of it ... you'll get there, keep looking up.

If you take nothing else away from our brief discussion remember this; when btc/fiat hits cost of production it is cheaper to buy btc than mine .... so do the math on that one thinking first like a miner and then like a btc buyer ... as long as btc remains viable as a currency, cost of production will be very near the floor for the price ... buy low, sell high, get rich 

[brocktice]

Cost of production does matter just not in the way you might think .... if you've had anything to do with resource extraction economics you'll know exactly what I mean (otherwise you have some fair amount of research ahead of you).

it would matter if it was a resource that we did use. like oil. and random economics does not apply to bitcoin. bitcoin haves a whole set of economic-theory-breaking stuff. like difficulty. you don't have that when you are mining for gold. gold is not easier to get when there are less there are mining it.

That's an interesting point but it's actually even stranger. No matter how many are mining, the amount produced is relatively constant (subject to minor fluctuations in hashing power and the periodic halving of mining rewards).

[S3052]

here is the link to view the charts: http://bit.ly/q3UQ9W

Longterm: UP.

Midterm: UP as long as the 9.5 $ - 10 $ range holds

Shortterm: UP from the 12.5 $ low and down sloping channel resistance.



[/quote]

This was not correct.  Just sayin'.
[/quote]



Yeah, bitcoin is not stable enough to be properly analyzed.
Anyone hitting it with math to find the future in the long term will propably fail at doing so consistently.
You see, individuals can have a far to great influence on the price.
There isnt a stable portion of the traders behaving as a mass and so any assumptions made about masses behaving will fail.
And since the price is decided, ultimately, by behaviour it is kindof strange to see people trying to abstract the hell out of bitcoin while they're dealing with more individualism and less group behaviour than their math has been tuned to.

[/quote]

I know you may not have had the time to review the success of the technical analysis since I started here in October 2010.

In fact, I started the Technical Analysis on bitcoins exactly with the purpose to answer the question: "Will my technical analysis work for bitcoin as well as for other financial markets?".

And indeed, it works just as fine.

And when looking at one of the latest technical analysis: "up from the 12.5 low". This means that the preferred scenario is UP, but it also says that you should sell when it breaks below. Many bitcoin traders have done that, minimized potential losses and bought back in the 5.74 - 7.8 $ area (many of my subscribers gave me this positive feedback).

And lastly, to become a good trader on bitcoins or other financial markets, there is more than technical anaylsis you need to master: money management. Everybody needs to learn this. We can't manage this as we do not know your risk profile, etc.