Analysis

[AceWallen]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

Doom and gloom, baby. Doom and gloom.

The problem with predictions like that is they're almost impossible to falsify... "dramatic selloff" implies a real crash. A new capitulation low. Say, going back to $300, maybe even lower.

Or maybe not. Let's say price is going down another leg, hitting $500, maybe even high $400s. The prediction will "sound" right as well afterwards, or at least some will claim it does (while I would hardly call it "dramatic").

Same for the stock markets. "About to crash", or "entering a longer bear market"? The two are not the same, but a vague enough statement can afterwards be claimed to have "predicted" it.

don't forget who predicted a multi-year bear market after the december top -- our very own lucif. whether that is still on the cards is up for debate, but 8 months later, still going strong.

whether we hit 300 or 450, that would be a dramatic selloff indeed.

[oda.krell]

whether we hit 300 or 450, that would be a dramatic selloff indeed.

You missed the point of what I said. A vague enough statement always hits the mark. We go down to $530? "Dramatic selloff confirmed". We go down to $300? "Definitely dramatic selloff". We bounce back from $550? "Kind of a dramatic selloff". (For the record, $530 seems a good candidate imo).

About the other point: I've said it often enough in this thread - masterluc has an amazing read on the market. I never dismiss his predictions thoughtlessly. I do however point out when they're not so much predictions but more 'vague, ominous sounding murmurs'.

[inca]

I am with masterluc on this one.

I see a lot of selling pressure on stamp. Someone is trying hard to keep the price above 580 $ mark, but someone is unloading big time.

I just cant see us breaking 620 any time soon.

Or actually there was a concerted selling effort to keep us below 600.

[figmentofmyass]

whether we hit 300 or 450, that would be a dramatic selloff indeed.

You missed the point of what I said. A vague enough statement always hits the mark. We go down to $530? "Dramatic selloff confirmed". We go down to $300? "Definitely dramatic selloff". We bounce back from $550? "Kind of a dramatic selloff". (For the record, $530 seems a good candidate imo).

i think the point is this: if you say it's bearish and get a selloff you are right. if you say it's bearish and get rally you are wrong. attacking vagueness means nothing in that case.

a drop 20 points to 550 is not dramatic.

[Schickeria]

We should really define what is a dramatic sell off. Is it that weeny kind of sell off, meaning 560 - 500. A capitulation sell off, meaning 440 - 275, or a cataclysm going back to ancient trend line in the 100's.

Dramatic Sell offs regarding bitcointalk-dramaqueen is even starting with 20.00$ dumps.

[h3speros]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

Doom and gloom, baby. Doom and gloom.

The problem with predictions like that is they're almost impossible to falsify... "dramatic selloff" implies a real crash. A new capitulation low. Say, going back to $300, maybe even lower.

Or maybe not. Let's say price is going down another leg, hitting $500, maybe even high $400s. The prediction will "sound" right as well afterwards, or at least some will claim it does (while I would hardly call it "dramatic").

Same for the stock markets. "About to crash", or "entering a longer bear market"? The two are not the same, but a vague enough statement can afterwards be claimed to have "predicted" it.

Good kings all around. Luc has been prescient several times before and we should give him props for that.

In addition, it doesn't take a rocker scientist to suggest stocks are way overbought. And it's entirely possible that if the stock market goes down I a big way that bitcoin could too - although there is no real historical precedent got this.

However, we also should consider, reading over Lucs most recent posts, that there is a certain amount of regional stress he is currently over involving where he resides. This may be causing him to have a less than well rounded and objective view of the current world financial markets.

It seems like doom and bloomers have been around forever and they, for several reasons, will always be.

These are my thoughts also about the case of lucs recent post. But I disagree on one thing, It's rocket scientist, not rocker.

[Bagatell]

But I disagree on one thing, It's rocket scientist, not rocker.

Says h3speros. 

[windjc]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

Doom and gloom, baby. Doom and gloom.

The problem with predictions like that is they're almost impossible to falsify... "dramatic selloff" implies a real crash. A new capitulation low. Say, going back to $300, maybe even lower.

Or maybe not. Let's say price is going down another leg, hitting $500, maybe even high $400s. The prediction will "sound" right as well afterwards, or at least some will claim it does (while I would hardly call it "dramatic").

Same for the stock markets. "About to crash", or "entering a longer bear market"? The two are not the same, but a vague enough statement can afterwards be claimed to have "predicted" it.

Good kings all around. Luc has been prescient several times before and we should give him props for that.

In addition, it doesn't take a rocker scientist to suggest stocks are way overbought. And it's entirely possible that if the stock market goes down I a big way that bitcoin could too - although there is no real historical precedent got this.

However, we also should consider, reading over Lucs most recent posts, that there is a certain amount of regional stress he is currently over involving where he resides. This may be causing him to have a less than well rounded and objective view of the current world financial markets.

It seems like doom and bloomers have been around forever and they, for several reasons, will always be.

These are my thoughts also about the case of lucs recent post. But I disagree on one thing, It's rocket scientist, not rocker.

Auto correct from an iPhone while on the phone is a bitch. I see about 5-6 errors in my last post at first glance. Smh.

[h3speros]

But I disagree on one thing, It's rocket scientist, not rocker.

Says h3speros. 

You can quess who is the Hesperos that im referring to in my nick? =)

[Ozziecoin]

Crash, not crash, Btc will bounce back. If financial markets crack, safest place will be cash and digital currencies.

[Capt Drake]

This is my analysis, the price is going down to $512 and then... it can crash or moon.

[Rampion]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

Doom and gloom, baby. Doom and gloom.

The problem with predictions like that is they're almost impossible to falsify... "dramatic selloff" implies a real crash. A new capitulation low. Say, going back to $300, maybe even lower.

Or maybe not. Let's say price is going down another leg, hitting $500, maybe even high $400s. The prediction will "sound" right as well afterwards, or at least some will claim it does (while I would hardly call it "dramatic").

Same for the stock markets. "About to crash", or "entering a longer bear market"? The two are not the same, but a vague enough statement can afterwards be claimed to have "predicted" it.

That's pretty much it. $400s is hardly dramatic, it's just the usual up&down bitcoin volatility. Real drama starts in the low $300s and lower.... Real euphoria starts above $900, irrational exhuberance after ATM is broken.

If we break $450 I will start buying more coins

[oda.krell]

As a result of Bitfinex margin call cascade, ~$450 reached. Whether we go down further or not, I consider that deep enough to qualify as a "dramatic selloff" as predicted by masterluc.

Another plus point added to his already excellent record.

[odin.dillinger]

As a result of Bitfinex margin call cascade, ~$450 reached. Whether we go down further or not, I consider that deep enough to qualify as a "dramatic selloff" as predicted by masterluc.

Another plus point added to his already excellent record.

+1

Now, if I would start to listen, and not follow my gut/greed, i might have made something of this selloff. hodling is booring!

[BrightAnarchist]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

Agreed that we're on a cusp of a big sell off.

As for a 1929/1987-style crash, however, we're not there yet. Wait for a 3-of-3, which will take some time to get to.

[thefiniteidea]

As a result of Bitfinex margin call cascade, ~$450 reached. Whether we go down further or not, I consider that deep enough to qualify as a "dramatic selloff" as predicted by masterluc.

Another plus point added to his already excellent record.

No no, we haven't seen the worst of it yet.

We may hang around these levels for a bit and bounce up a little even, but the worst is yet to come in the next few months...

[pinky]

As a result of Bitfinex margin call cascade, ~$450 reached. Whether we go down further or not, I consider that deep enough to qualify as a "dramatic selloff" as predicted by masterluc.

Another plus point added to his already excellent record.

No no, we haven't seen the worst of it yet.

We may hang around these levels for a bit and bounce up a little even, but the worst is yet to come in the next few months...

Ok, crashing and pain, but what happens after this ends?

[Beliathon]

"When others are greedy, be fearful.
When others are fearful, be greedy."
-Warren Buffet



All of this has happened before, all of it will happen again.

[masterluc]

I feel 400 will be start of something not good

[Tzupy]

What do you mean? That 400$ won't hold in the near future?
IMO bids will pile up above the 420$ which held in May and provide support and then a small rally to 540$,
which once broken became major resistance. Breaking 420$ soon would be very bearish.
Breaking 420$ for good in a month or so would be normal for capitulation.