Analysis

[Rampion]

430 target reached.

And up we go...

430? Are you from the future?

Wow, my bitcoin price ticker just fucked up. Top its been $417.99 (Bitstamp), I correct myself

[sumantso]

430 target reached.

And up we go...

I thought if we reached $420 we go down. That could have been older analysis, I need to be spoon fed all these complicated charts.

[Tzupy]

1h MACD suggests a correction similar to the one on the 10th is imminent, since market is overbought again.
For the bottom probably around 370$. If lower than that, it would be bearish.

[oda.krell]

Say what? Weekly and daily ADX show reversal. "V" formation on charts is a reversal struct. Price closed back inside weekly bb and in positive daily BB zone.

We may expect some bounce (1-2 months) into 500-600 area. But I am skeptic about further bullish move. Wake me up at 500, I'll post next analysis.

Nice summary. Pretty close to my own  expectations, that are (vaguely): first, a rise out of the bottom that confuses the bears. So far, volume is there to support it. Then, when it looks like we're back in a full bull market (~600, maybe), either volume keeps up and we actually *are* going into a real bull market, or, like in May/June, volume fizzles out again and we top out, entering another downwards slide, slow first, then accelerating.

[JustAnotherSheep]

Say what? Weekly and daily ADX show reversal. "V" formation on charts is a reversal struct. Price closed back inside weekly bb and in positive daily BB zone.

We may expect some bounce (1-2 months) into 500-600 area. But I am skeptic about further bullish move. Wake me up at 500, I'll post next analysis.

Nice summary. Pretty close to my own  expectations, that are (vaguely): first, a rise out of the bottom that confuses the bears. So far, volume is there to support it. Then, when it looks like we're back in a full bull market (~600, maybe), either volume keeps up and we actually *are* going into a real bull market, or, like in May/June, volume fizzles out again and we top out, entering another downwards slide, slow first, then accelerating.

Indeed, I share your (and luc's) sentiment. I refer back to this chart;

 

So far, we've had a nice bounce off the lower trendline and are heading towards resistance. This is a very large wedge, encompassing the entirety of the post-bubble downtrend, and I feel that a break and validation of the pattern may just provide enough momentum to in turn leave this bear market once and for all.



However we may, as you mention, see a self-similar bear cycle repeat. This scenario would also fit with us breaking the wedge since, as one can see in the below zoomed in chart, the April bottom and subsequent May rise was also marked by divergence + wedge breakout



Thus, in my mind the likeliest way such a scenario will play out is by the formation of yet another, larger fractal wedge (and divergence?)



But of course the problem with patterns of self-similarity is that they're only self-similar until they aren't Either way, this is all long-term speculation, and there'll be plenty of sub-waves to trade until then. In other words; we will cross that bridge when we get to it!

(sorry for wall of charts )

[lebing]

 wall of charts

This is pretty much what I was thinking and thats why I was surprised luc was saying we are going to 500. If we are going to 500 then we could be going much further quite quickly.

[Tzupy]

...
This is pretty much what I was thinking and thats why I was surprised luc was saying we are going to 500. If we are going to 500 then we could be going much further quite quickly.

That's not possible. 500$ is a reasonable target for the peak of the first sub-wave of wave 1. After that there must be corrections.
I have some doubts that a price level of 450$ - 750$ is going to be sustainable for many months during wave 1 and corrective wave 2, we'll see.

[windjc]

...
This is pretty much what I was thinking and thats why I was surprised luc was saying we are going to 500. If we are going to 500 then we could be going much further quite quickly.

That's not possible. 500$ is a reasonable target for the peak of the first sub-wave of wave 1. After that there must be corrections.
I have some doubts that a price level of 450$ - 750$ is going to be sustainable for many months during wave 1 and corrective wave 2, we'll see.

You think the bottom is in too?

I have serious doubts.

[windjc]

Say what? Weekly and daily ADX show reversal. "V" formation on charts is a reversal struct. Price closed back inside weekly bb and in positive daily BB zone.

We may expect some bounce (1-2 months) into 500-600 area. But I am skeptic about further bullish move. Wake me up at 500, I'll post next analysis.

Nice summary. Pretty close to my own  expectations, that are (vaguely): first, a rise out of the bottom that confuses the bears. So far, volume is there to support it. Then, when it looks like we're back in a full bull market (~600, maybe), either volume keeps up and we actually *are* going into a real bull market, or, like in May/June, volume fizzles out again and we top out, entering another downwards slide, slow first, then accelerating.

You think the bottom is in too?  This is an interesting trifecta of bullishness - Luc/Oda/Tzupy

My head is spinning.

[Tzupy]

...
This is pretty much what I was thinking and thats why I was surprised luc was saying we are going to 500. If we are going to 500 then we could be going much further quite quickly.

That's not possible. 500$ is a reasonable target for the peak of the first sub-wave of wave 1. After that there must be corrections.
I have some doubts that a price level of 450$ - 750$ is going to be sustainable for many months during wave 1 and corrective wave 2, we'll see.

You think the bottom is in too?

I have serious doubts.

I try to keep an open mind. Both bullish and bearish scenarios are still possible, but the latest developments favor the bullish one.
6 days ago I said that it will take 10 - 15 days until the market will decide a clear direction. It may take longer.
If the bulls manage to conquer a high enough level and then defend a support level of 300+ when the corrections will come, then the bottom was 275.

[molecular]

Volume suggests h&s triggering, which should send price back to daily 200 sma forming even larger inverse h&s

I love fractal patterns. So powerful!

I'm quite confident the V-shaped bottom on October 6th marked a trend reversal.

On fundamentals: I see an uptik in individual influencial investors and even politicians talking their btc-books. Only a matter of time until XBT is mentioned in popular newsletters. It'll work. At some point when price keeps rising the sheep will flock in panicked by price-driven media attention. The short chickens come home to roost in a frenzy... fuel for the rocket.

[boumalo]

...
This is pretty much what I was thinking and thats why I was surprised luc was saying we are going to 500. If we are going to 500 then we could be going much further quite quickly.

That's not possible. 500$ is a reasonable target for the peak of the first sub-wave of wave 1. After that there must be corrections.
I have some doubts that a price level of 450$ - 750$ is going to be sustainable for many months during wave 1 and corrective wave 2, we'll see.

You think the bottom is in too?

I have serious doubts.

I try to keep an open mind. Both bullish and bearish scenarios are still possible, but the latest developments favor the bullish one.
6 days ago I said that it will take 10 - 15 days until the market will decide a clear direction. It may take longer.
If the bulls manage to conquer a high enough level and then defend a support level of 300+ when the corrections will come, then the bottom was 275.

It depends what you are looking for : are you waiting for the big wave? Buy now! Do you want to speculate on the short term price and you think it will go down again? Wait a little bit to buy

[masterluc]

Stocks feel bad, gold bounces, xbt bounces.

[masterluc]

Actually xbt follows gold now. And gold follows opposite to dxy (dollar).

So xbt is now officially goes opposite to US dollar.

[vipgelsi]

Stocks feel bad, gold bounces, xbt bounces.

Gold prices are getting very close to production prices. There isnt any room to go down. They will just shut mines down and creat demand.

[masterluc]

Gold prices are getting very close to production prices.

Nobody cares. World economics is out of reality.

[CoinBurner]

Actually xbt follows gold now. And gold follows opposite to dxy (dollar).

So xbt is now officially goes opposite to US dollar.

very interesting insight! So if this correlation holds, we should expect some kind of bounce short term, then additional weakness medium term (since it seems dxy is expected to go higher and gold lower in the following months) and thereafter, when hopefully the dollar collapses for good, the final, epic trip to the moon 

by the way a big thank you for one of the most valuable analysis threads out there.

[Void_80]

It can decouple although from gold soon...

We are entering new wave of Deflation, with CBs worldwide having empty guns.
So there should be bank crashes, exchanges' failures, "paper" gold's trading issues etc

In such situation BTC can go up quite a lot...
This time it might become worse than it was in 2008-2009  

[Void_80]

Gold prices are getting very close to production prices.

Nobody cares. World economics is out of reality.

Economy will survive somehow nevertheless.
Who is "out of reality" : world's rulers.
Heavily on cocaine and in rainbow dreams of achieved Recovery.
Their future is bleak.

[BrightAnarchist]

Deflation is spreading!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-17/butter-prices-tumble-most-in-18-years-as-imports-climb.html