[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Bavaria]

@rpietila

what is your opinion about the price for 1 xmr in about 2-3 Years and the same for DRK?

Thank´s for your answer

"My opinion" can only be defined as "my estimate of the probabilities of various scenarios", and Expected Value can be calculated out of it. The problem with this approach is similar to someone asking a poker player: "What is your opinion, do you win this round?" Poker is not played out of opinion, but out of rigorous mathematical probabilities, coupled with psychology concerning the read of the opponent. Predicting the prices of Crypto is even harder since there are no rigorous probabilities that all would agree.

That said, I give about 50% chance that XMR will totally fail (be valued essentially at zero) in 2-3 years. The other 50% would be about:
- 10% valued at the same as now
- 10% valued at $1
- 10% valued at $2-5
- 10% valued at ~$10
- 10% valued at much more.

I cannot really give estimate on DRK. It currently has a higher marketcap than XMR but I haven't invested anything in it. I am not against premine but the way DRK is presenting theirs is unethical to my standards.

Are you sure the possibility of Monero`s death is as high as 50%?  In which case Monero can die?

[G2M]

100 people taking the advice is 300k. 1000 people taking the advice is 3m. There won't be enough for 10k people to take the advice. Even right now, there's only enough for less than 3k people to take the advice. In 3 years, there's still only enough for 6k people to take the advice, excluding current major holders. Likely, there will only be 3-4k people that ever need to take the advice.

So where can we find another 3-4k people in 3 years? Given the small amount needed and the number of us there already are, a considerable amount of time can be spent per 'recruit'.

Say there's 200 of us now. If we each find 15-20 people that think they want to take the advice and do it over the next three years, well be way okay.

Shouldn't be too bad. Go make a single new middle class friend every two months from now until three years from now. Get them to take the advice.

Seems like hardly any work at all, given the yield.

Surely your chances of making a single new friend every two months for the next three years is greater than 1%, right?

[shitaifan2013]

maybe a nice faucet could help with a little growth/promotion. afaik there's going to launch one rather soon, hopefully before the 8.8.

[rdnkjdi]

Surely your chances of making a single new friend every two months for the next three years is greater than 1%, right?

Just so much wrong with this.

I will make many more positive human interactions (I reserve the term "friends" for people I stay in close contact with for years).

I won't sell Monero, penny stocks, herbal oils or magic beans to new friends. 

[shitaifan2013]

Surely your chances of making a single new friend every two months for the next three years is greater than 1%, right?

I won't sell ... magic beans to new friends. 

you have magic beans from master korin? 

[findftp]

100 people taking the advice is 300k. 1000 people taking the advice is 3m. There won't be enough for 10k people to take the advice. Even right now, there's only enough for less than 3k people to take the advice. In 3 years, there's still only enough for 6k people to take the advice, excluding current major holders. Likely, there will only be 3-4k people that ever need to take the advice.

So where can we find another 3-4k people in 3 years? Given the small amount needed and the number of us there already are, a considerable amount of time can be spent per 'recruit'.

Say there's 200 of us now. If we each find 15-20 people that think they want to take the advice and do it over the next three years, well be way okay.

Shouldn't be too bad. Go make a single new middle class friend every two months from now until three years from now. Get them to take the advice.

Seems like hardly any work at all, given the yield.

Surely your chances of making a single new friend every two months for the next three years is greater than 1%, right?

I'm interested in monero but seeing you talk about "a considerable amount of time can be spent per 'recruit'" sets some red flags.
You really should try to make it sound less like a pyramid sheme because your whole post is drenched in a pyramid flavour.

[G2M]

What would you sell a new friend then?

Immediately coming to mind would be things like a used car, old guns, discounted service in my line of work, gold or other commodities.

All these things are valuable, much like I consider Monero to be valuable.

How could it be wrong to sell someone something with value?

My mindset must be different here, I was under the impression that this will be something that would be with me for at least the next 40 years (as this may be the extent of my lifetime, not sure).

Why would I not want my friends involved in it, or at least discuss it seriously with them? Especially if, I would imagine, i'd feel pretty terrible as I watched them remain paupers while I suddenly find myself surrounded my incredible amounts of value at some point in the future.

Maybe I am wrong, but it's a risk I'd be willing to take for people i'd like to like, personally. Part of me.

If my friends can drone on and on about going to their sports game, going places, listening to their work exploits, games they'd like to play with me, or otherwise, surely I'm in the right to drone on and on about Monero and how i'd like it if they took one or two thousand dollars and threw it into the ring.

I dunno. Guess I'll just have to try it out and see. I mean it's already worked twice so far, with no hard feelings.

Is it wrong that I'm willing to suffer their grief if this all goes sideways? Do I value people too little? Or do I value Monero too little?

I'm interested in monero but seeing you talk about "a considerable amount of time can be spent per 'recruit'" sets some red flags.
You really should try to make it sound less like a pyramid sheme because your whole post is drenched in a pyramid flavour.

Fine, I'll call them people. Sorry if I'm not so personable. It's something I'm workin on. If it came off sounding pyramidy then it's mostly because of the rushed mood i feel like i'm in for no reason at all .. sometimes you just forget that you're talking to real people, ya know? Like, you just want to write things that make sense, but end up writing the dumbest damn things.

Maybe I did it to sabotage myself, because I've got doubts and would rather end up nowhere. I'm tricky like that, stupid brain fighting me the whole way

Guess I can stop typing now?

[TrueCryptonaire]

The pyramid structure is the only way something can be made valuable in general.
Therefore I am fascinated on pyramid schemes (not scams but honest pyramid schemes).
Pyramid structure means, there is a limited amount of assets and the value of the owner's slice increase when more people come in.
Let's consider gold bullion as an example: there is limited amount of gold in existence. When you have a "significiant slice" of world's gold supply (it is not that large since gold in existence is surprisingly scarce), you want others to buy also gold driving the purchasing power of your gold higher and thus you are climbimg in the pyramid to higher levels.
The same analogy applies to stocks, real estates, silver, pink diamonds, old cars, fiat money, you name it - anything valuable.

[findftp]

The pyramid structure is the only way something can be made valuable in general.
Therefore I am fascinated on pyramid schemes (not scams but honest pyramid schemes).
Pyramid structure means, there is a limited amount of assets and the value of the owner's slice increase when more people come in.
Let's consider gold bullion as an example: there is limited amount of gold in existence. When you have a "significiant slice" of world's gold supply (it is not that large since gold in existence is surprisingly scarce), you want others to buy also gold driving the purchasing power of your gold higher and thus you are climbimg in the pyramid to higher levels.
The same analogy applies to stocks, real estates, silver, pink diamonds, old cars, fiat money, you name it - anything valuable.

You are right, but his post reads like a "I don't give a shit about monero but only want to get people join this pyramid so I can cash out and ride a pink elephant."
Don't understand me wrong, I also want to ride a pink elephant but I want to ride it sooner than him.
He doesn't really invite me to join his pyramid by his post, it reads like a scam.

I'm not scared away by one person though.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The pyramid structure is the only way something can be made valuable in general.
Therefore I am fascinated on pyramid schemes (not scams but honest pyramid schemes).
Pyramid structure means, there is a limited amount of assets and the value of the owner's slice increase when more people come in.
Let's consider gold bullion as an example: there is limited amount of gold in existence. When you have a "significiant slice" of world's gold supply (it is not that large since gold in existence is surprisingly scarce), you want others to buy also gold driving the purchasing power of your gold higher and thus you are climbimg in the pyramid to higher levels.
The same analogy applies to stocks, real estates, silver, pink diamonds, old cars, fiat money, you name it - anything valuable.

You are right, but his post reads like a "I don't give a shit about monero but only want to get people join this pyramid so I can cash out and ride a pink elephant."
Don't understand me wrong, I also want to ride a pink elephant but I want to ride it sooner than him.
He doesn't really invite me to join his pyramid by his post, it reads like a scam.

I'm not scared away by one person though.

Well, I have to be honest with you: I like Monero mostly because it is scarce/low inflationary and potentially therefore valuable. Money in general doesn't stir up large feelings but I personally try to act rationally.
Therefore as my savings I prefer a pyramid scheme rather than highly inflationary asset class.
I do give the same amount of shit to Monero than to euro/dollar/gold, or sligthly more since Monero is more like a pyramid scheme.
I agree the word "pyramid scheme" might scare some folks though and it is better not to advertise as such but practically speaking it is a fascinating concept to make seemingly abudant (bits on the screen) a scarce pyramid type of scheme.

But I agree, there is also the technological aspect of Monero, too. Personally I am more fascinated the pyramid though as it makes me potentially a wealthy Gentleman in a few years from now.

[papa_lazzarou]

Does anyone know if there is a ratio or theoretical number where owning more of an asset by one individual actually decreases it's possible value?  For example, we can all agree that owning 1% will make you obscenely wealthy if Monero goes the distance.  That relies on the other 99% becoming widely distributed and a major standard for transacting goods and services across the world.  
  
But, let's say there are 100 of us and we all buy 1%.  Well, we have n-person-prisoner-dilemma-fucked ourselves because now no one can reasonably transact with the asset (and it will likely be discredited long before this becomes a fact).  
  
It would seem that buried within the mountains of magic numbers there is a game theory solution for the maximal amount of an asset a rational player should ever seek to own, even if they suspect (hope) the value/utility will one day explode to orders of magnitude above its current state.

I would urge everyone to limit their holdings.  Excessive concentration of ownership will damage the upside.

This is no doubt true. Do you have any suggestions on some appropriate numbers though?

18.6k would be .1% of the long-term supply.  I would not fault anyone for owning that much.  1000 enthusiasts would, conceivably, suffice to build an economy, which would disperse ownership as others became involved. 

Anyhow, as long as price is under downward pressure, you should not feel guilty (or foolish) for buying too much, no matter how much you own.  You can always sell it later, at a BTC profit, when price is trending up, if you think it is wise to reduce your holdings to aid dispersion.

[GingerAle]

The pyramid structure is the only way something can be made valuable in general.
Therefore I am fascinated on pyramid schemes (not scams but honest pyramid schemes).
Pyramid structure means, there is a limited amount of assets and the value of the owner's slice increase when more people come in.
Let's consider gold bullion as an example: there is limited amount of gold in existence. When you have a "significiant slice" of world's gold supply (it is not that large since gold in existence is surprisingly scarce), you want others to buy also gold driving the purchasing power of your gold higher and thus you are climbimg in the pyramid to higher levels.
The same analogy applies to stocks, real estates, silver, pink diamonds, old cars, fiat money, you name it - anything valuable.

You are right, but his post reads like a "I don't give a shit about monero but only want to get people join this pyramid so I can cash out and ride a pink elephant."
Don't understand me wrong, I also want to ride a pink elephant but I want to ride it sooner than him.
He doesn't really invite me to join his pyramid by his post, it reads like a scam.

I'm not scared away by one person though.

also, you're in the speculation thread. For non pyramid/we're-gonna-be-bajillionaires-one-day-how-will-you-spend-your-billions conversations, there are many other places on bitcointalk, its the ANN thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.25800

There's also the getmonero.org forum, where the funding system has recently blasted off

And of course IRC #monero and #monero-dev

[iCEBREAKER]

Surely your chances of making a single new friend every two months for the next three years is greater than 1%, right?

Just so much wrong with this.

I will make many more positive human interactions (I reserve the term "friends" for people I stay in close contact with for years).

I won't sell Monero, penny stocks, herbal oils or magic beans to new friends. 

So you didn't tell your friends about Bitcoin before it was a thing?

Oh wait..."Date Registered:  April 16, 2013."

Sorry your friends didn't tell you about Bitcoin before it was a thing.

Or maybe they tried, only for you to ignore their "magic bean" talk?

The guys I told about Bitcoin in 2011 have been very interested to hear about Monero.

They know I can smell disruption from a mile away.   

[dEBRUYNE]

For those who are interested, some Monero TA at twitter:

https://twitter.com/Pipfoundry/status/620903992139362304

Please trade with caution and do your own due diligence/TA as well!

[rangedriver]

I speculate that this flagship use of the forum funding system will set the stage for future success of the funding system, and hence, future success of Monero. If developers outside of the Monero community witness a fully functioning funding system, they will be more likely to build a reputation in the Monero community in order to get in on the action.

I think we might need a little assistance in the formatting department. This is how it looks to me:-



I speculate that good formatting could be a smart move in making the system more user-friendly.  

[MalMen]

I speculate that good formatting could be a smart move in making the system more user-friendly.  

Actualy it looks fine on my browser, have you set any zoom on your browser ?

[dEBRUYNE]

I speculate that this flagship use of the forum funding system will set the stage for future success of the funding system, and hence, future success of Monero. If developers outside of the Monero community witness a fully functioning funding system, they will be more likely to build a reputation in the Monero community in order to get in on the action.

I think we might need a little assistance in the formatting department. This is how it looks to me:-



I speculate that good formatting could be a smart move in making the system more user-friendly.  

Same for me, although I get a little formatting error on my phone as well.

[rangedriver]

I speculate that good formatting could be a smart move in making the system more user-friendly.  

Actualy it looks fine on my browser, have you set any zoom on your browser ?

No zoom. Standard 100%. I'm getting the same results on an iPad too.

[fluffypony]

I speculate that Eddie and I should stop using wide screens when checking forum changes...

[jehst]

Surely your chances of making a single new friend every two months for the next three years is greater than 1%, right?

Just so much wrong with this.

I will make many more positive human interactions (I reserve the term "friends" for people I stay in close contact with for years).

I won't sell Monero, penny stocks, herbal oils or magic beans to new friends.  

So you didn't tell your friends about Bitcoin before it was a thing?

Oh wait..."Date Registered:  April 16, 2013."

Sorry your friends didn't tell you about Bitcoin before it was a thing.

Or maybe they tried, only for you to ignore their "magic bean" talk?

The guys I told about Bitcoin in 2011 have been very interested to hear about Monero.

They know I can smell disruption from a mile away.  

My register date on this forum in July 2013, but my Mtgox and Dwolla register dates are in May, 2011. Which one is more important? Talking or doing?  

Anyway, I was only smart/rich enough to buy a double digit amount. I've corrected that mistake with Monero.

Btw, it turns out that one of my electrical engineer friends heard about bitcoin in 2009-2010 when we were in school together. He never told me :/ He ended up first buying bitcoin in the triple digits.