Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[Tronlet]

Not much action today with extremely low volume. We'll probably see the same type of action tomorrow, I'll be waiting to see what early Monday brings before taking an action.   

You should probably be checking the charts right about now.

[S3052]

I have reset the poll again.

Vote now. Thanks for your opinion.

Up
Same?
Down

[S3052]

Two questions for you.

1) Is your subscription service free?
No, the in-depth analysis means extensive work and the monthly fee is 5 BTC.
Here are some more details: http://bit.ly/mjP1Rh
The weekly analysis will typically arrive Thursday evening London
time. On top, you will receive interim updates and alerts, depending on
market conditions. Everything will be sent to your email address.

If you want to secure more than one month at 5 BTC / month onwards, you
can secure as many months as you wish to stay in the member pool, and
then sent the appropriate bitcoins (my subscribers are very satisfied and many have already paid
for a couple of months in advance).
For July, I charge only 4 BTC for you.


For the payment, here is a new address that is specific to you so I can
properly see if payment arrived.
1CtjrYqDtcAHknpsX6ZqBJszyQzxvEU5BW

Once I received the funds, you will be in the subscriber pool.
 

2) You seem knowledgeable about this sort of stuff. What would you recommend reading as an introduction to the sort of analysis you do? I don't have a strong background in either economics or trading, but I'd like to learn.


For a very quick intro, you can look at: http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/#axzz1Rjavruib
A good book is: Murphy's "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets"
Further, I also sometimes look at elliottwaves: www.elliottwave.com

Hope this helps

[conspirosphere.tk]

71% here is starting to be wrong. Here's the poll result at the moment that I am writing (when BTC are down at 13.90 USD):

Question:    What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up    15 (71.4%)
Same as now    2 (9.5%)
Down    3 (14.3%)
I don't know    1 (4.8%)
Total Voters: 21

I just feel pain, having bought at 19, thanks even to the perma-bulls here who trolled the contrarians.

[cloon]

öhm this is a poll for 4 weeks not for tommorow!
think longterm not like many speculators only shortterm, then you'll make profit too... not as much as they do but they have much more experience... so dont worry!
it'll go up again^^

[S3052]

Chartly's new $BCOIN symbol has its first chart post.


http://chart.ly/9dumj9u

[epii]

71% here is starting to be wrong. Here's the poll result at the moment that I am writing (when BTC are down at 13.90 USD):

Question:    What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up    15 (71.4%)
Same as now    2 (9.5%)
Down    3 (14.3%)
I don't know    1 (4.8%)
Total Voters: 21

I just feel pain, having bought at 19, thanks even to the perma-bulls here who trolled the contrarians.

Bought at $19 too, I feel the pain.  But I bought to hold, and there's no evidence that BTC won't climb up that high again... eventually.  I just wish I'd held onto some of my investin' money for when the price came down this low.

[proudhon]

71% here is starting to be wrong. Here's the poll result at the moment that I am writing (when BTC are down at 13.90 USD):

Question:    What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up    15 (71.4%)
Same as now    2 (9.5%)
Down    3 (14.3%)
I don't know    1 (4.8%)
Total Voters: 21

I just feel pain, having bought at 19, thanks even to the perma-bulls here who trolled the contrarians.

Bought at $19 too, I feel the pain.  But I bought to hold, and there's no evidence that BTC won't climb up that high again... eventually.  I just wish I'd held onto some of my investin' money for when the price came down this low.

Well, you could always take the risk of speculating on the price going lower (which is looking likely).  I favor chodpapa's analysis right now, which is suggestive of more downside for a while, then a gradual climb back up.  I'm not on board with the recent rally anticipation.  But, hey, I'm not an analyst so I'm guessing, at best.

[S3052]

Putting wishes and emotions aside, the patterns look bullish in the short term for a break out higher (either from current levels or a bit lower)

[MKW2012]

A close above $15 on heavy volume would probably result into a nice rally. Although I'm looking for a pullback to $11-$12 for a better low risk entry point.

[error]

A close above $15 on heavy volume would probably result into a nice rally. Although I'm looking for a pullback to $11-$12 for a better low risk entry point.

That was last week. You missed it.

[MKW2012]

A close above $15 on heavy volume would probably result into a nice rally. Although I'm looking for a pullback to $11-$12 for a better low risk entry point.

That was last week. You missed it.

I'm looking to buy more at those levels

[error]

A close above $15 on heavy volume would probably result into a nice rally. Although I'm looking for a pullback to $11-$12 for a better low risk entry point.

That was last week. You missed it.

I'm looking to buy more at those levels

ROFL. Don't we all. I just don't expect to ever see $11 again.

[MKW2012]

A close above $15 on heavy volume would probably result into a nice rally. Although I'm looking for a pullback to $11-$12 for a better low risk entry point.

That was last week. You missed it.

I'm looking to buy more at those levels

ROFL. Don't we all. I just don't expect to ever see $11 again.

We'll see. I look at last weeks intra-day low as current support. Any further weakness and we could see a test of last Tuesdays lows.

[Oldminer]

A close above $15 on heavy volume would probably result into a nice rally. Although I'm looking for a pullback to $11-$12 for a better low risk entry point.

That was last week. You missed it.

lol

[Bit_Happy]

A close above $15 on heavy volume would probably result into a nice rally. Although I'm looking for a pullback to $11-$12 for a better low risk entry point.

That was last week. You missed it.

I'm looking to buy more at those levels

ROFL. Don't we all. I just don't expect to ever see $11 again.

We'll see. I look at last weeks intra-day low as current support. Any further weakness and we could see a test of last Tuesdays lows.

The Bulls:
I understand the charts may look bullish.
A) We (~2 weeks ago) had a short-term low/trading range around $14.25, later "crashed to $11", and now we are "preparing to rally" from the low $14 area.
B) The "V bottom' at $11 looks like a clear, powerful sign of a strong bottom.


The Bears:
1) $14.00 failed to hold after recently appearing to be a strong support level.
2) Every rally attempt is quickly beaten down.
3) The massive medium-term over-supply of BTC is a Bearish reality.  (? Isn't it? ?)

Why test $11, when we can test the more important low of $10.25 from June 11-12?
...or why can't the bottom be $6.50 to $7.50, and old trading range?
... or $1.50?*

*Probably too many happy buyers to get to $1.50, but the Bearish case is also pretty strong, IMO.


What will the market do?
Right now it looks dead forever. I predict once something finally happens it will be very dramatic and exciting.

[Vladimir]

It seems that the best bet now is to get one month long vacation and return some time in late august.

[Rudementry]

It seams the best bet now is to get one month long vacation and return some time in late august.

^After selling all of your Bitcoins or buying as many as you can?

[Vladimir]

Well... my play is to try to sell as few bitcoins as I possibly can, your mileage may vary.

[brocktice]

It seems that the best bet now is to get one month long vacation and return some time in late august.

At least it's good for us miners -- keeps diff from rising too much, eh Vladimir? I just installed another rack of miners recently and I'm getting a nice breather before diff rises again.