Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[Tronlet]

I don't understand this thread. To me, a technical analysis of bitcoin is less complex than a technical analysis of Toys-R-Us (NYSE TOY). What data is there to analyze with bitcoin? Where is the Prospective, or even a business plan for Bitcoin?

He's analyzing what direction the exchange markets will move, is that not obvious?

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[cbeast]

I don't understand this thread. To me, a technical analysis of bitcoin is less complex than a technical analysis of Toys-R-Us (NYSE TOY). What data is there to analyze with bitcoin? Where is the Prospective, or even a business plan for Bitcoin?

He's analyzing what direction the exchange markets will move, is that not obvious?

Yes, I understand that. What I am asking is what possible data is there to analyze? Tea leaves and lady bugs?

[Tronlet]

I don't understand this thread. To me, a technical analysis of bitcoin is less complex than a technical analysis of Toys-R-Us (NYSE TOY). What data is there to analyze with bitcoin? Where is the Prospective, or even a business plan for Bitcoin?

He's analyzing what direction the exchange markets will move, is that not obvious?

Yes, I understand that. What I am asking is what possible data is there to analyze? Tea leaves and lady bugs?

Trends in the market, history, bidding walls, news, the economy, plenty of other things?

[Chris Acheson]

I don't understand this thread. To me, a technical analysis of bitcoin is less complex than a technical analysis of Toys-R-Us (NYSE TOY). What data is there to analyze with bitcoin? Where is the Prospective, or even a business plan for Bitcoin?

See technical analysis vs. fundamental analysis.

[Digigami]

I'm just going to chime in here quickly..

I subscribed to the private service for the first few months, and was very happy with the detailed analysis. I do understand it takes a significant amount of time to provide such a service, and I do trust the advice given both here publicly and in the subscription service.

However, because of the cost and the fact I am a very low volume trader I have decided not to renew. For those interested who do move a fair bit of volume I would highly recommend the services offered. If I was in a position to be more involved in the market I would not think twice about signing up again.

I will miss the faster updates and more in depth analysis than is provided publicly.

S3052, your providing a fantastic service here, please do keep up the good work. Hopefully sometime I will be in a position to increase my exposure and will most certainly get myself back on your subscription service.

Cheers
-Digigami

[done]

I'm rooting for a rally 

[molecular]

for me your analysis is too expensive! i trade only to learn bases of trading and analysis, indicators, etc... but i do not invest thousands of dollars, so if i have to pay 5 BTC per month, i doesn't take long until youve got all my money... (greed or specified selecion?)
i would use it for 0.5 BTC - 1 BTC per month... (eventlually many more people will use, and you've got higher profit)

+1

I'd pay the same small amount. Anything above that isn't worth it for me, just don't have the kind of volume to pay 5 BTC, not at all.
Maybe it really _is_ true and S3052 could make more selling at substantially lower price. 5 BTC I just can't afford.

[molecular]

Too bad there isn't an exchange where people like S3052 could compete for followers.  People could choose who to follow, and part of their commission would be split evenly among those they follow.  It could integrate charting, publishing analyses, and of course trading.  Too bad I don't have the time or capital to build it.

I could offer time, capital anyone?

[pjwaffle]

Can I join your team S3052? Remember me? I'd only ask for a very (small) pay.

[proudhon]

Here is tonight's Bitcoin technical and market update.

Please donate here if you wish to see it continued:

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here is the link to view the charts: http://bit.ly/q3UQ9W

Longterm: UP.

Midterm: UP as long as the 9.5 $ - 10 $ range holds

Shortterm: UP from the 12.5 $ low and down sloping channel resistance.


 

Overall, the forecast about a bullish consolidation and subsequent breakout to the upside has materialized. While the very short term pattern turned out somewhat different to the option presented in last analysis here (bullflag extended further to the downside), the overall direction was correct. Bitcoins are back in a bullmarket on all timeframes.



 Technical analysis

It is always important to look at the longterm picture before falling into the trap of drawing too short term (and often wrong) conclusions. In German language, we call this "you don't see the forest when you stand  in the middle of the trees".

Both, the long and mid term trend are clearly up. The chart below shows that the move down from the all time high of 31.9 $ is corrective, not impulsive. Based on chart analysis tools,  Elliott Wave patterns (not shown) and volume patterns, this view is the preferred scenario.

For example, both, the chart pattern and the volume development indicate that the entire move down from 31.9 $ is a consolidation with the most likely resolution to the upside and new highs in weeks/months.





Shortterm, and as predicted especially in the subscription service (http://bit.ly/mjP1Rh) , a big rally came last night with strong volume. Most of the 12 day downward consolidation was retraced within just 3 hours, a strong bullish move.

BTCUSD are now consolidating this move and likely will move up into the 17 $ - 20 $ area.

The BitBulls are in control now, as long as the 12.5 $ low 7 down sloping lower channel line holds. But even if this channel support falls, there is much more support in the 9.5 $ - 12. 5 $ cluster, as short and midterm support levels run in this zone.

 

Trade Bitcoins well!

Your S3052

 

Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. S3052 owns some bitcoins.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

This was not correct.  Just sayin'.

[cbeast]

Do you think maybe the trench right now is because there were some successful heists and Mt Gox still has cheap trading? Just sayin' I say BTC will rally within a week back to the 10 EU price.

[proudhon]

Do you think maybe the trench right now is because there were some successful heists and Mt Gox still has cheap trading? Just sayin' I say BTC will rally within a week back to the 10 EU price.

If you think that, then I hope you're buying right now.  But, also, if you think that, then, in advance, my sympathy to you.  IMO we're circling a very large toilet bowl.  I'm just hanging around for the show at this point.

[FlipPro]

Do you think maybe the trench right now is because there were some successful heists and Mt Gox still has cheap trading? Just sayin' I say BTC will rally within a week back to the 10 EU price.

If you think that, then I hope you're buying right now.  But, also, if you think that, then, in advance, my sympathy to you.  IMO we're circling a very large toilet bowl.  I'm just hanging around for the show at this point.

Yeah right... The minute you see some obvious movement you'll be right back in . No matter how many hacks, no matter how many attacks, no matter how many things happen to THIRD PARTY VENDORS, Bitcoin cannot die.

[proudhon]

Do you think maybe the trench right now is because there were some successful heists and Mt Gox still has cheap trading? Just sayin' I say BTC will rally within a week back to the 10 EU price.

If you think that, then I hope you're buying right now.  But, also, if you think that, then, in advance, my sympathy to you.  IMO we're circling a very large toilet bowl.  I'm just hanging around for the show at this point.

Yeah right... The minute you see some obvious movement you'll be right back in . No matter how many hacks, no matter how many attacks, no matter how many things happen to THIRD PARTY VENDORS, Bitcoin cannot die.

It might not die out completely, but it may very well be the case that anyone who bought bitcoins since April will end up losing a significant proportion of whatever they put in once the dust settles.  The pros have made their money and gotten out and this whole thing  is ready to be tossed back into obscurity

After the MtGox hackcrash I thought confidence in bitcoin couldn't get much lower, and yet since then I've been proven wrong again and again.  The fact that the market price is above $5 is absolutely astonishing, and not in a bullish way.

[FlipPro]

Do you think maybe the trench right now is because there were some successful heists and Mt Gox still has cheap trading? Just sayin' I say BTC will rally within a week back to the 10 EU price.

If you think that, then I hope you're buying right now.  But, also, if you think that, then, in advance, my sympathy to you.  IMO we're circling a very large toilet bowl.  I'm just hanging around for the show at this point.

Yeah right... The minute you see some obvious movement you'll be right back in . No matter how many hacks, no matter how many attacks, no matter how many things happen to THIRD PARTY VENDORS, Bitcoin cannot die.

It might not die out completely, but it may very well be the case that anyone who bought bitcoins since April will end up losing a significant proportion of whatever they put in once the dust settles.  The pros have made their money and gotten out and this whole thing  is ready to be tossed back into obscurity

After the MtGox hackcrash I thought confidence in bitcoin couldn't get much lower, and yet since then I've been proven wrong again and again.  The fact that the market price is above $5 is absolutely astonishing, and not in a bullish way.

Honestly I just think we have a bunch of new miners who don't know what the HELL they are doing. We are getting killed by the bears because they get a coin and sell it like it's a hot potato. It's time for us miners to begin to see this as a long term investment, and get to work on other projects that will make all our investments WINNERS. You guys can't get rid of your machines now, the huge influx of anything ATI HD will make these cards go DIRT CHEAP. You will LOOSE and you were warned by many in this community. The only viable solution at this point is to hold on to your coins and only spend within the community
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade till you start getting those prices you deserve...

[grod]

You guys can't get rid of your machines now, the huge influx of anything ATI HD will make these cards go DIRT CHEAP. You will LOOSE and you were warned by many in this community. The only viable solution at this point is to hold on to your coins and only spend within the community
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade till you start getting those prices you deserve...

The only viable solution for YOU.  I'm fine with you doing that, I'll just continue trading for dollars as opportunities present themselves.  Been selling since $24 and it's been a highly profitable strategy for me.  Much better than those buying/holding all the way down expecting $40 in August and $100 by end of year.

If people panic and sell their hardware for pennies on the dollar -- my power costs $.046 + fees, or around 6c a kw/hr.  I (and lots of others) can pick up where they left off.   Anyone willing to sell me working XFX 5830 for $50 yet?  No?  Didn't think so.

Fact is, 3/4 of existing mining power got added during the last 6 weeks.  People are looking for a return on that investment.  And $12/btc is still a better return than $0 + hope & prayer.

Now, when BTC are around $5 you'll have a point.

[molecular]

Honestly I just think we have a bunch of new miners who don't know what the HELL they are doing. We are getting killed by the bears because they get a coin and sell it like it's a hot potato. It's time for us miners to begin to see this as a long term investment, and get to work on other projects that will make all our investments WINNERS.

+1, I've been thinking that for quite a while now. Why the f... they sell their precious coins prematurely?

I've gotten to the point though, where it doesn't piss me off any more, because this is actually a good thing. Money is being passed on to buyers (fresh people amongst them, I hope), who are now "invested" in bitcoin and will help grow it. Back in March/April/Mai I was thinking: "Shit, everyone's holding on to their coins, how is average Joe ever going to get in on this game?". Well, that problem seems solved now.

I seem to have greatly overestimated the appeal which the features of this currency would have on people. I thought everyone would react like me, saying: "This is f...ing awesome! Genius Nakamoto thought of everything! Finally online money that actually works and cannot be taken down easily. This will be BIG. Let's become independent from these banksters and finally do away with this modern slavery shit." ... well, you get the point.

The greatest appeal for the majority of miners that joined within the last 3 month was probably: "Wow, I can put my GPU to use by generating $$$. I just have to go through some weird "bitcoin" thing first. I don't know wether or not bitcoin will take off and frankly I dont care, because I'm too lazy to think and too afraid to take a risk, so here goes every 0.01 BTC I mine directly to mtgox. I will also constantly complain to pool operators why it takes so long to pay out and why does it take so long to make a transaction again? Shit, I just hope bitcoin won't get hacked again before I payed for my GPU". I know this is a bit hyperbolic, but I think it's a large part of what's happening.

Sad really, but part of the mechanics to distribute bitcoin to more people (who will be called "early adopters" at some point, btw

[cbeast]

Do you think maybe the trench right now is because there were some successful heists and Mt Gox still has cheap trading? Just sayin' I say BTC will rally within a week back to the 10 EU price.

If you think that, then I hope you're buying right now.  But, also, if you think that, then, in advance, my sympathy to you.  IMO we're circling a very large toilet bowl.  I'm just hanging around for the show at this point.

Of course I am acquiring some bitcoin. I am waiting for apps to be developed that allow for secure transactions and wallets so I can distribute bitcoins locally. I think the price of bitcoin is fine because it is high enough for those that sell to pay their costs, but low enough to attract buyers. Please do hang around for the show because so far this has been only the previews.

[S3052]

the bitcoin market, like any other financial market, behaves irrationally, not rationally
This is why technical chart analysis can be so effective.
The current short term trend has turned down now and lower prices are likely.
I will provide key trigger levels and price targets for short and intermediate term in the subscriber section.

[S3052]

I'm just going to chime in here quickly..

I subscribed to the private service for the first few months, and was very happy with the detailed analysis. I do understand it takes a significant amount of time to provide such a service, and I do trust the advice given both here publicly and in the subscription service.

However, because of the cost and the fact I am a very low volume trader I have decided not to renew. For those interested who do move a fair bit of volume I would highly recommend the services offered. If I was in a position to be more involved in the market I would not think twice about signing up again.

I will miss the faster updates and more in depth analysis than is provided publicly.

S3052, your providing a fantastic service here, please do keep up the good work. Hopefully sometime I will be in a position to increase my exposure and will most certainly get myself back on your subscription service.

Cheers
-Digigami

Thanks for the encouraging words. You and others are always welcome to join the subscribers. I just issued the weekly report with a longterm outlook and 3 major options.