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Question: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: #1 most popular Bitcoin Price Forecasts (+1,492% gains, +750% more than B&H)  (Read 346047 times)
brocktice
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August 10, 2011, 08:15:31 PM
 #1121

And when looking at one of the latest technical analysis: "up from the 12.5 low". This means that the preferred scenario is UP, but it also says that you should sell when it breaks below. Many bitcoin traders have done that, minimized potential losses and bought back in the 5.74 - 7.8 $ area (many of my subscribers gave me this positive feedback).

One thing I have not understood -- how can you discern whether or not that was a self-fulfilling prophecy?

http://media.witcoin.com/p/1608/8----This-is-nuts

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S3052
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August 10, 2011, 08:33:59 PM
 #1122

@brocktice:

I tried to answer this question here:

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/08/bitcoin-technical-analysis-a-review-august-7th-2011-by-s3052/#comment-253

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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Bimmerhead
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August 11, 2011, 03:45:31 AM
 #1123



One thing I have not understood -- how can you discern whether or not that was a self-fulfilling prophecy?

If S3052 is able to generate self-fulfilling prophecies, then you'd better get on board! Grin
bitcoinBull
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August 11, 2011, 06:41:00 AM
 #1124


One thing I have not understood -- how can you discern whether or not that was a self-fulfilling prophecy?

If S3052 is able to generate self-fulfilling prophecies, then you'd better get on board! Grin

IMO, earlier on S3052 was generating self-fulfilling prophecies.  Back a few months ago when the daily trading volume was closer to $10k and all of his analyses were public (before his subscription program).  The market was small enough that it all it took to send the price up was one of S3052's charts with a green arrow, usually not long after he posted.

This influence seemed to lessen as the market grew bigger.

College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
S3052
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August 14, 2011, 09:05:52 PM
 #1125

Here is the  Bitcoin technical  analysis update.

Please donate here if you wish to see it continued:

14TeeHy4igXUgfnjXmCFG5MwkcRKZRkprS


 

Long term: UP.

Mid term: Consolidation from the 31.9 $ all time high.

Short term: UP from the 5.74 $ low.

Color legend: Green: UP, Purple: SIDEWAYS, Red: DOWN.

 

With the expected fall into the 5 - 5.8 $ area, the minimum downside retracement has been reached last week. This could have already been the end of the correction from the all time high of 31.9 $. If this is true, bitcoins could be starting a major rally again which would be important for bitcoin trading.

 

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

We may be right at the start of a major rally, provided bitcoin will confirm the nascent breakout above the trend channel - as shown on below chart.

The short term will remain UP as long as the 5 - 5.8 $ zone holds (red line), and even better, as long as 8.4 $ holds.

Momentum (MACD) and relative strength indicators point upwards for the first time since mid June 2011.

http://bit.ly/pf9p9f


 

Trade Bitcoins well! Stay tuned for further Bitcoin technical analysis here.

Your S3052

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com
S3052
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August 18, 2011, 06:18:59 AM
 #1126

Here is a short term update.

Trend is up after the break above bull flag trend channel.



https://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalyst

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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NamelessOne
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August 18, 2011, 06:37:14 AM
 #1127

Awesome!! BUY BUY BUY!!
S3052
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August 26, 2011, 06:14:18 AM
 #1128

Here is the  Bitcoin Technical  and Bitcoin Market Analysis, with the intent to forecast Bitcoin prices.

Please donate here if you wish to see it continued:

14TeeHy4igXUgfnjXmCFG5MwkcRKZRkprS

 

Bitcoin Forecast:

Long term: UP.

Mid term: DOWN.

Short term: DOWN.


Color legend: Green: UP, Purple: SIDEWAYS, Red: DOWN.

 

The short term rally that started at 5.74 $ came to an end yesterday with a decline below 10.5 $ and 10 $. This is a bearish sign and shows that bitcoin prices have entered a more protracted correction again . Further downside is now more likely. It will take a move above 14 $ to confirm the mid term rally continuation.


A test or even break of the key level of 5.74 $ is now quite probable.



Bitcoin Technical and Bitcoin Market Analysis

The strong decline from yesterday has changed the outlook significantly.

1) Bitcoin Prices broke beneath the key 10 $ and 10.5 $ level.

2) The bitcoin market is now below the green upper resistance line.

3) The momentum indicator MACD is likely to confirm a sell signal with a bearish cross over.

4) The relative strength is waning and is now again below 50, which is also bearish.

 



 

Trade Bitcoins well! Stay tuned for further Bitcoin technical and Bitcoin market analysis here.

Your S3052

 

Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. S3052 owns some bitcoins.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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proudhon
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August 26, 2011, 02:18:04 PM
 #1129

Here's another brief analysis that seems to be saying roughly the same thing.

Quote
The situation is very clear using a longer time frame like the weekly one.
Since the June top at 32$ every weekly bar have had a lower high, the bounce from the recent 5.74$ low has completed and now we are resuming the downtrend. A first important step for a weekly reversal to the upside will be to do not break the recent low with an higher low maybe around 6.50$, from there it is necessary to break above the 12$ resistance; without all of this it is impossible to avoid a new low under 5.74$

The inverse RSI fisher transform is oversold for 5 weeks now (it has never happened before) confirming the downtrend .  For all the long term investors i hope that the slide will stabilize over 5.5$-6$ during september but the BTC/USD needs a new wave of fresh investors otherwise this downtrend will never stop (eventually it will slow down) due to miners that needs to sell bitcoins to pay back mining costs.

https://btctrading.wordpress.com/2011/08/26/long-term-update-mtgox-weekly-view/

Things don't look so hot right now.
S3052
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August 27, 2011, 08:16:46 AM
 #1130

Yes, there is no reason to buy bitcoins beyond day-trading activities, when considering reward / risk ratios.

Even a rise to 10$ or 12$ would not yet eliminate the downward risk to the 5 $ area. And if 5$ does not hold there is a risk for a much bigger crash, as we also outlined in the subscription section.


by the way, what happened just minutes ago? There is a brief spike to 6 $ on the charts? Is there yet again another issue / hack on Mtgox??? I hope not.



>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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Starlightbreaker
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August 27, 2011, 08:25:50 AM
 #1131


by the way, what happened just minutes ago? There is a brief spike to 6 $ on the charts? Is there yet again another issue / hack on Mtgox??? I hope not.

i saw a brief spike to $700 on my side.


must be a bug.

I'm hoppin your pool, taking away your payouts.
S3052
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August 27, 2011, 08:31:22 AM
 #1132

Thanks, this does not help bringing back confidence for investors and traders. Just imagine those things happened weekly on major stock exchanges...

We need better, more secure, more professional exchanges, quickly, before people turn away from bitcoins and prices are back to pennies.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com
S3052
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August 27, 2011, 09:14:39 AM
 #1133

The bitcoin price charts are screwed because of this fake dip...

MtGox, please test changes online first, before going live. Thank you.

And please, remove this trade from the history. Thank you a second time.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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August 27, 2011, 09:20:54 AM
 #1134


We need better, more secure, more professional exchanges, quickly, before people turn away from bitcoins and prices are back to pennies.

Already have a bunch of those, but the network effect on MtGox still is too strong  apparently (volume).

To clean up your chart, try Edit => Refresh all data for symbol.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
S3052
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August 27, 2011, 09:36:29 AM
 #1135

I agree that there are competitors who might be better.

But noone dares to do proper marketing and advertising.

You cant expect to overtake the marketleader with a "garage shop" operation.

and thanks for the advice with refreshing. I am trying now.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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oakpacific
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August 27, 2011, 10:51:52 AM
 #1136

Here is a short term update.

Trend is up after the break above bull flag trend channel.



https://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalyst


Don't see that spike on Mt.Gox's trade data price plot, could that be a problem with your chart provider?

Nothing great was ever achieved without irrational exuberance.
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August 27, 2011, 02:15:47 PM
 #1137

It happened today, see chart example


>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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brocktice
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August 27, 2011, 02:26:17 PM
 #1138

I agree that there are competitors who might be better.

But noone dares to do proper marketing and advertising.

You cant expect to overtake the marketleader with a "garage shop" operation.

and thanks for the advice with refreshing. I am trying now.


Despite the past and ongoing problems with MtGox, MagicalTux is probably one of the most trusted people in the Bitcoin community at this point. He's doing a lot to build the credibility of bitcoins, and to do right by users. He's also leading the charge with improved security after the issues that occurred at MtGox.

There are security/trust/jurisdiction issues with pretty much all of the other exchanges. For instance, one of the guys involved with TradeHill has some pretty serious allegations of running off with people's money in the past.

MtGox is not perfect, but again, MagicalTux seems to me to be the most trustworthy person/entity running a market at this point. I just wish he'd step up the Q/A a little faster. This is I think the main reason you don't see people leaving the exchange for others.

http://media.witcoin.com/p/1608/8----This-is-nuts

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August 27, 2011, 02:27:36 PM
 #1139

It happened today, see chart example



Sorry ,I quoted the wrong post, what I was saying is I didn't see the spike on Mt.Gox's own trade data UI, and I don't know from which provider you're getting that chart from. So it's possbile that the problem is with the chart provider, not Mt.Gox itself.

Nothing great was ever achieved without irrational exuberance.
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August 27, 2011, 02:31:02 PM
 #1140

It happened today, see chart example



Sorry ,I quoted the wrong post, what I was saying is I didn't see the spike on Mt.Gox's own trade data UI, and I don't know from which provider you're getting that chart from. So it's possbile that the problem is with the chart provider, not Mt.Gox itself.

He's using Sierra Chart, and I've had the same problem today.  I've seen anomalous spikes twice now.  I had to delete the MtGoxUSD.scid and re-download the entire history in order to get rid of them.
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