Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[N12]

Indeed, and trades like these are at fault:

mtgoxUSD 2011-08-27 15:47:15 6.11665 0.09
mtgoxUSD 2011-08-27 15:51:20 6.14481 0.09

I have no clue if someone really bought/sold Bitcoins at this price, but that’s the trade data that was delivered …

Also, with regard to this topic, what do you people think about the 7.64 low we have seen?

[brocktice]

Indeed, and trades like these are at fault:

mtgoxUSD 2011-08-27 15:47:15 6.11665 0.09
mtgoxUSD 2011-08-27 15:51:20 6.14481 0.09

I have no clue if someone really bought/sold Bitcoins at this price, but that’s the trade data that was delivered …

Also, with regard to this topic, what do you people think about the 7.64 low we have seen?

He said in IRC this was testing of JPY and other currency trades. Apparently they got mixed in with USD output in some cases. It's turned back off now.

[BitcoinStars.com]

Chart is looking ugly 

[S3052]

It is fixed now, thanks Blitzboom

[kiwiasian]

Funny how your long term is always up. How long is "long term?" All we've been seeing for the past 4 months is down, down, down

[S3052]

Thanks for the valid question, so let me clarify:

Long term is looking at monthly charts. Starting period summer 2010. TREND UP
Mid term is looking at weekly / daily charts. TREND DOWN
Short term are all time frames under 60min charts. TREND DOWN.

[julz]

Long term is looking at monthly charts. Starting period summer 2010. TREND UP

Summer?  Which hemisphere?
 

[S3052]

Long term is looking at monthly charts. Starting period summer 2010. TREND UP

Summer?  Which hemisphere?
 

I need to think more globally... I mean: In May 2010, bitcoin trading started at bitcoinmarket and in August 2010 on MtGox

[oakpacific]

Funny how your long term is always up. How long is "long term?" All we've been seeing for the past 4 months is down, down, down

4 months are you sure?

[S3052]

Funny how your long term is always up. How long is "long term?" All we've been seeing for the past 4 months is down, down, down

4 months are you sure?

We are down from the high 8 weeks to the 5.74 $ low, and down 11 weeks to date.

[YoYa]

Funny how your long term is always up. How long is "long term?" All we've been seeing for the past 4 months is down, down, down

4 months are you sure?

We are down from the high 8 weeks to the 5.74 $ low, and down 11 weeks to date.

Which leads to a good question, what are the approx time periods for short, medium and long term to a trader?

[netrin]

Top of the page:

Long term is looking at monthly charts. Starting period summer 2010. TREND UP
Mid term is looking at weekly / daily charts. TREND DOWN
Short term are all time frames under 60min charts. TREND DOWN.

[BombaUcigasa]

[arsenische]

BombaUcigasa, what did you want to say?

[BombaUcigasa]

BombaUcigasa, what did you want to say?

If the price moves in the next 2-6 hours, it most certainly won't go up...

[arsenische]

If the price moves in the next 2-6 hours, it most certainly won't go up...

Is your judgement based on the blue wall at about 9.5$, which is likely to be fake?

[BombaUcigasa]

If the price moves in the next 2-6 hours, it most certainly won't go up...

Is your judgement based on the blue wall at about 9.5$, which is likely to be fake?

Maybe, I don't know if it's fake or not. Well someone expects to sell about 7000 BTC at 9.55$. With a 5300 daily volume, that could take a while. Now suppose that is fake and it will be taken down, then there will be no resistance. But what if he decides to dump it a current price? It could burn all the way to 8$.

[arsenische]

Maybe, I don't know if it's fake or not. Well someone expects to sell about 7000 BTC at 9.55$. With a 5300 daily volume, that could take a while. Now suppose that is fake and it will be taken down, then there will be no resistance.

Before the price droped to 5-9 zone I saw the opposite picture: almost nothing on the right side, and 2 orange walls on the left. But both vanished and the price dropped. I think we should make our judgments based on some more reliable data. Probably volumes and price of actual trades are not fake.

But what if he decides to dump it a current price? It could burn all the way to 8$.

Then he would do it carefully so that nobody notices. Probably he would make a fake orange wall to keep the price high

[S3052]

Like many people said, we should not look too much into the orderbook. Experienced traders, and particularly those who can use bots, will use this to fool others with this strategy.

I used the order book well from October 2010 to March / April 2011, but after it got too inconsistent due to the above mentioned phenomenon.

[N12]

Like many people said, we should not look too much into the orderbook. Experienced traders, and particularly those who can use bots, will use this to fool others with this strategy.

I agree with this, but the idea of "fake walls" is completely ridiculous, and I’m quite sick of reading it on these forums. I haven’t seen any that were cancelled when touched for a while. Also, I remember a wall of 10k BTC somewhere around ~8.5$ recently which was completely filled at ONCE.

Walls are not fake. Every single order can be filled without any chance for the owner to cancel it if it happens at once, even the very big ones by people who have the means to. It is a real risk to have such an order without intending to actually have it executed.

But generally it is true that the order book is way too easy to manipulate by bots, changing the entire shape in seconds. This can be prevented by small, for humans insignificant fees for cancellation or setting of orders.