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 Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3031279 times)
Sitarow
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 October 14, 2013, 09:31:41 PM

This is the most bizarre thing i've ever seen. It has to be the only business where a company's own customers will go to any length to ensure the company does not succeed. The selfishness and greed is absolutely sickening.

Let's see:
Maybe 900 day 1/2 units, since you said 700 dispatched and I would guesstimate around 200 left:
650*7000+250*3500= 5,425 Million
Cost:
650*2500+250*1250= 1,9375 Million (guesstimate)

Profit:
3,4875 Million  -> Without profit from hosting.

Loss from day1/2 customers because of late shipment: ranging from 0 to 3000\$ (ofc it should be denominated in btc, but just for the fun of it) (following formula for ~loss per day for customers with 140\$/btc)
((900*1,7)+(850*1,7)+(800*1,7)+(750*1,7)+(700*1,7)+(650*3,4)+(550*1,3)+(500*1,3)+(450*1,3)+(400*1,3)+(350*1,3)+(300*1,3)+(250*2,6))*140=1,8165 Million

Now: Cost of adding a production line capable of producing those orders in 2 days? I would hazard a wild guess and say about 800k\$ max.

Now, let's say that every customer who got his unit until Saturday 5th was content with it (I know I would've been): ~1,3 Million for the other 650 units.

So please tell me again who is greedy and selfish! They made this much with day1/2 orders alone, without hosting, without October orders.
WE are not that customers OWN customers, we are CUSTOMERS.
The only one greedy is KNC not offering honest and deserved compensation for customers and hoping they are too lazy to go to court for a measly 2500+\$ per unit!
The only one selfish is, again, KNC for pulling out margins upon margins but not having those margins where it counts - at the (only real) bottleneck - the final assembly/production.

Well if you like many attempted to calculate ROI on ordering one of the Jupiter units back when the shipping date was first week of September and difficulty was bellow
90 million and a difficulty increase of 30% every 10.8 Days.

Below is a screen shot of what you can expect if you get your unit October 16th and if the network difficulty goes up by 30% and the value of btc is \$140USD when you decide to part with them.

If you think the difficulty is going to hit 22 billion by april you are fooling yourself.  That is completely ridiculous.  Yes, we're having >100% increases a month but the network can't double every month and keep that up.

The purpose of these exponential growth projections is to help those inexperienced with bitcoin network difficulty realize that what they should be focusing on is BTC return over the lifetime of the product.

Considering the risks associated with any pre-order it is time that manufacturers also consider the customers situation when pricing the \$ value of the unit.

Avalon did it well on their first and second batches pricing wise vs number of units to be sold. Wish they would have been able to deliver them in volume.

Here is a link to something that I feel is my optimistic view as respects network difficulty.

Please understand that an exercise in awareness rarely is doing disservice to others.
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DPoS
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 October 14, 2013, 09:34:04 PM

The next difficulty jump will close to 40% due to mass knc delivery (BFL and bitfurry is also running up fast)    No chance of ROI at all even for the first day delivery customer

Previous estimation indicate a total mining income of 5x "coins mined in the first difficulty pefirod" during its lifespan, now only 3x to be expected

yet everyone keeps on turning on more miners!!  why won't everyone else turn theirs off!

/sarc

~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~Play Boardgames for Bitcoins!!~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~ Something I say help? Donate BTC! 1KN1K1xStzsgfYxdArSX4PEjFfcLEuYhid
Puppet
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 October 14, 2013, 09:36:30 PM

Out of curiosity, what makes you think the growth will start slowing down next difficulty retargeting?
It will start slowing down at some point, no one doubts that, but so far, its been speeding up (http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png) and all the major roll outs have yet to happen.
DPoS
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 October 14, 2013, 09:38:22 PM

trepex was kind enough to send me the uptime output of is saturn and it seems my therory is moot since the beagleboard avg load is almost the same of my jupiters

thanks for checking back with that..  if it didn't cost me money to be KNC testbed I would love to figure it out more

I did email KNC if they would sell more control/beagle board units so we can split them up if we wish.. no word yet

~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~Play Boardgames for Bitcoins!!~~BTC~~GAMBIT~~BTC~~ Something I say help? Donate BTC! 1KN1K1xStzsgfYxdArSX4PEjFfcLEuYhid
Sitarow
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 October 14, 2013, 09:39:48 PM

You also lost potential return if you used the funds to purchase the BTC you would have an even greater return in \$ if you sold those higher then what you purchased them.

Case and point. Picked up 175 BTC at \$86 USD the other day could of sold them today for \$142 USD but instead bailed out a friend at \$123 usd.

Who do I sue for not buying Google Stock when it was low and selling it now for a profit? Someone has to pay!

Well for your analogy with application to Bitcoin would be more along the lines of the following.

You are an employee of google and have the opportunity of investing further with the company. You work directly with the projects and can see the direction and volume of future orders (BTC value). You wish to get a bigger piece of the pie so you try to go it alone and get some side projects in the works rather than invest in the company directly (BTC).

Either way you are investing into the project. Via hardware, services, or in the currency itself.

With bitcoin, we have access to far greater information and market sentiment than any individual company negotiating for their place in the global economy.

But I digress from the original theme of this thread.
ur0pl
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 October 14, 2013, 09:42:01 PM

I bought two Jupiters. I need at least one of them shipped by now. I cannot take this. I am going crazy.
Sitarow
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 October 14, 2013, 09:42:04 PM

Out of curiosity, what makes you think the growth will start slowing down next difficulty retargeting?
It will start slowing down at some point, no one doubts that, but so far, its been speeding up (http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png) and all the major roll outs have yet to happen.

More people will get the idea of how to invest into btc and see other opportunities open up.

Who knows. Maybe a public bitcoin ETF in the states. But then again. WHO KNOWS....

That is the risk of participating rather than just using BTC.
dextryn
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 October 14, 2013, 09:45:41 PM

The purpose of these exponential growth projections is to help those inexperienced with bitcoin network difficulty realize that what they should be focusing on is BTC return over the lifetime of the product.

Considering the risks associated with any pre-order it is time that manufacturers also consider the customers situation when pricing the \$ value of the unit.

Avalon did it well on their first and second batches pricing wise vs number of units to be sold. Wish they would have been able to deliver them in volume.

Here is a link to something that I feel is my optimistic view as respects network difficulty.

Please understand that an exercise in awareness rarely is doing disservice to others.

I understand what you're saying, and I do think that Genesis block and the other companies have given people more tools on this than have ever been provided before.  I just don't want people to think the future is that bleak...It is pretty bleak, don't get me wrong...just not THAT bleak.
Sitarow
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 October 14, 2013, 09:47:52 PM

The purpose of these exponential growth projections is to help those inexperienced with bitcoin network difficulty realize that what they should be focusing on is BTC return over the lifetime of the product.

Considering the risks associated with any pre-order it is time that manufacturers also consider the customers situation when pricing the \$ value of the unit.

Avalon did it well on their first and second batches pricing wise vs number of units to be sold. Wish they would have been able to deliver them in volume.

Here is a link to something that I feel is my optimistic view as respects network difficulty.

Please understand that an exercise in awareness rarely is doing disservice to others.

I understand what you're saying, and I do think that Genesis block and the other companies have given people more tools on this than have ever been provided before.  I just don't want people to think the future is that bleak...It is pretty bleak, don't get me wrong...just not THAT bleak.

I could not agree more

Speaking of investments

Oct. 9, 2013, 3:05 p.m. - **Debit cards have arrived as a new withdrawal option! (In Beta)
https://www.cavirtex.com/news

Oh and they have an IPO...
https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=VTX

Edit: I think that this is a far more likely scenario as to network difficulty and bitcoin value projection.
1l1l11ll1l
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 October 14, 2013, 10:07:00 PM

The purpose of these exponential growth projections is to help those inexperienced with bitcoin network difficulty realize that what they should be focusing on is BTC return over the lifetime of the product.

Considering the risks associated with any pre-order it is time that manufacturers also consider the customers situation when pricing the \$ value of the unit.

Avalon did it well on their first and second batches pricing wise vs number of units to be sold. Wish they would have been able to deliver them in volume.

Here is a link to something that I feel is my optimistic view as respects network difficulty.

Please understand that an exercise in awareness rarely is doing disservice to others.

I understand what you're saying, and I do think that Genesis block and the other companies have given people more tools on this than have ever been provided before.  I just don't want people to think the future is that bleak...It is pretty bleak, don't get me wrong...just not THAT bleak.

I could not agree more

Speaking of investments

Oct. 9, 2013, 3:05 p.m. - **Debit cards have arrived as a new withdrawal option! (In Beta)
https://www.cavirtex.com/news

Oh and they have an IPO...
https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=VTX

Edit: I think that this is a far more likely scenario as to network difficulty and bitcoin value projection.

So by July ASICs will ship in such vast quantities that difficulty will rise nearly 4 Billion every 12 days?

 ▄█▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█▄▄█▀▄███████████▄▀█▄▄█▀▄███████████████▄▀█▄▄█▀▄███████ ██ ████████▄▀█▄█ ███████▄▄ ▌ ▄▄▄ ▀██████ ██ █████████ ▌ ████ ██████ ██ █████████ ▌ ▄▄▄▄ ▀█████ ██ █████████ ▌ █████ █████ ██ █████▄▀▀  ▌ ▀▀▀▀ ▄█████ █▀█▄▀███████ ██ ████████▀▄█▀▀█▄▀███████████████▀▄█▀▀█▄▀███████████▀▄█▀▀█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█▀ .JINBI.. │││ merges gold’s investmentholding value withblockchain technology │ ....T H E   G O L D E N   I C O....────────     WHITEPAPER     ────────. │ JOIN ICO          2 1 s t  J U N E ▄█▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█▄▄█▀▄███████████▄▀█▄▄█▀▄███████████████▄▀█▄▄█▀▄███████ ██ ████████▄▀█▄█ ███████▄▄ ▌ ▄▄▄ ▀██████ ██ █████████ ▌ ████ ██████ ██ █████████ ▌ ▄▄▄▄ ▀█████ ██ █████████ ▌ █████ █████ ██ █████▄▀▀  ▌ ▀▀▀▀ ▄█████ █▀█▄▀███████ ██ ████████▀▄█▀▀█▄▀███████████████▀▄█▀▀█▄▀███████████▀▄█▀▀█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█▀
Phoenix1969
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 October 14, 2013, 10:08:35 PM

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soy
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 October 14, 2013, 10:09:06 PM

Received my Saturn today.  Crappy packaging, fans were fallen off inside, UPS guy was concerned that contents were damaged when he delivered it...
not too hard to put them back on... but damn KnC, you could have talked to some of us who run group buys and have shipped out a ton of packages, we/I could have been a good resource to help you with your packaging and shipping.  At least you would have known what NOT to do...
but anyways, I'm happy that I got it, even though, it's not going to get the btc I paid for it back...
pointed at Eligius pool, working like a champ so far...

Maybe they're sending a signal.  They're engineers and therefore not the "complete package", so don't expect hand holding and time consuming efforts at keeping our spirits up as might be expected of salesmen.

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frankenmint
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 October 14, 2013, 10:12:39 PM

Phoenix1969
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 October 14, 2013, 10:14:54 PM

the shipped saturn is the one hashing... You don't have a knc order?... thats a snippet of my KNC account order page...the other two orders there are also saturns...  in progress for a week now

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Sitarow
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 October 14, 2013, 10:16:19 PM

The purpose of these exponential growth projections is to help those inexperienced with bitcoin network difficulty realize that what they should be focusing on is BTC return over the lifetime of the product.

Considering the risks associated with any pre-order it is time that manufacturers also consider the customers situation when pricing the \$ value of the unit.

Avalon did it well on their first and second batches pricing wise vs number of units to be sold. Wish they would have been able to deliver them in volume.

Here is a link to something that I feel is my optimistic view as respects network difficulty.

Please understand that an exercise in awareness rarely is doing disservice to others.

I understand what you're saying, and I do think that Genesis block and the other companies have given people more tools on this than have ever been provided before.  I just don't want people to think the future is that bleak...It is pretty bleak, don't get me wrong...just not THAT bleak.

I could not agree more

Speaking of investments

Oct. 9, 2013, 3:05 p.m. - **Debit cards have arrived as a new withdrawal option! (In Beta)
https://www.cavirtex.com/news

Oh and they have an IPO...
https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=VTX

Edit: I think that this is a far more likely scenario as to network difficulty and bitcoin value projection.

So by July 2014 ASICs will ship in such vast quantities that difficulty will rise nearly 4 Billion every 12 days?

One thing you can bet on the cost of the hardware will be a fraction of what it is today.

But only a fool would not sit down and revisit their calculations in order to prepare to any anticipated changes that may come down the pipe.

Carbon may become a viable option over silicon before the end of 2015.

2012 http://www.kurzweilai.net/carbon-nanotubes-to-replace-silicon-ibm

Killing silicon: Inside IBM’s carbon nanotube computer chip lab
2013 http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/147596-killing-silicon-inside-ibms-carbon-nanotube-computer-chip-lab

Researchers Build a Working Carbon Nanotube Computer
2013 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/26/science/researchers-build-a-working-carbon-nanotube-computer.html?_r=0

Then again who knows.

Edit: one also should realize that the calculator linked in this post does not calculate negative values for the bitcoin network difficulty.

A factor that the network difficulty does drop once those interested in mining realize the futility of investing into hardware for a profit the network speed increase drops until the next generation of technology becomes available.
frankenmint
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 October 14, 2013, 10:16:36 PM

the shipped saturn is the one hashing... You don't have a knc order?... thats a snippet of my KNC account order page...the other two orders there are also saturns...

thought those were icons didnt realize you were marking out your order numbers

Phoenix1969
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LIR DEV

 October 14, 2013, 10:17:21 PM

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Mota
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 October 14, 2013, 10:35:46 PM

What I posted was not that they don't deserve profit. I posted a calculation of customers losses vs KNC's profit margin and that they could have avoided the whole thing with another margin in final production. Also keep in mind that those are only the profits from day1/2 and that the costs per unit estimated by me are way too high.
The calculation is not correct
you have to subtract the research and asic mask/production

Nope, was included in the guestimate. With around 4 Million.

Who wants to be a billionaire? Me!
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The Avenger
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 October 14, 2013, 10:51:12 PM

In other news

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24477667

"The bottom line is that 1,000 tonnes of diamonds a year are being created on Saturn."

Should have got one of those instead.

"I am not The Avenger"
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cet
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 October 14, 2013, 10:57:22 PM

In other news

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24477667

"The bottom line is that 1,000 tonnes of diamonds a year are being created on Saturn."

Should have got one of those instead.

trouble is that the shipping costs will kill you.
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