Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hyperjacked]

Where dem dang Bargain boyz at...?
USA up dat crap creek witout da paddles
Printin trillions n dat chubby guy got a snake bite!

[marcus_of_augustus]

Trump weighs 17 stone? What a lard-ass. Definitely going down.

... yes I would say he is much higher risk of succumbing to the chinese bioweapon than Boris was, 1 in 37 of 74yo who catch it die
... Trump is overweight, highly-stressed but has best healthcare.
... his symptoms worsened rapidly now so he's had it for a few days already https://www.zerohedge.com/political/president-trump-has-covid-19-here-what-happens-next
...CIA wants him gone now that russiagate frame-up investigation is pointing back at G Haspel, Hicks is the honey in the field

[LFC_Bitcoin]

[Biodom]

https://nypost.com/2020/10/02/chinese-state-media-outlet-mocks-trump-for-contracting-coronavirus/?utm_medium=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPTwitter

CCP asking for it. I bet Trump does something to really piss them off like officially recognizing Taiwan as a country.

A little global uncertainty will be good for King Bitcoin.

I doubt that it is in anyone's interest (especially BTC HODLers) to really be asking for more societal drama in order for king daddy bitcoin to prosper..

Bitcoin would likely be much better served by fewer Armageddon-wannabe scenarios.

Bitcoiners will be able to see what transpires in 14 13 mo, and if btc is below 55K (the lowest prediction value), then the model is invalidated and there are no other models with any predictive value whatsoever.

I like the fact that, finally, S2F is being harshly criticized because, in my mind, it is making the predictive values more likely to be achieved, paradoxically.

That seems to be a bit of a strange claim about the model being supposedly broken if the BTC price is below $55k by the end of next year...

We will see, Biodom, but your claim seems to be a bit strong and wishful on your behalf, Biodom.. I mean in terms of you wanting to proclaim that the model is either worth very little or not worth anything.. and it is as if you are just rooting on an ongoing basis that the model is not true... ...

for what reason, it is difficult to know for sure..

Seems to me that you are just overly bothered by the model and you are ongoingly trying to figure out ways to discount the model and suggest that it adds little to no value to our thinking about BTC price dynamics, no?

Also, it seems to me that BTC prices could be manipulated down for 13-14 months or even extending 2 years from now or longer .. in order to cause the stock to flow model to appear to be broken.. and so what would that ongoing and persistent manipulation accomplish exactly, if it were to happen?  

Seems to me that such ongoing downward manipulation could cause an explosive BTC price move later on down the road, or maybe such ongoing downward manipulation would cause a shifting of the trendline of the model to get pushed downward within the model.. so I am not clear why you believe that such need to potentially tweak the model would necessarily cause the model to be broken or invalid.. because the model is likely NOT guaranteeing as much as you seem to be wanting to argue that such model guarantees.

It is not what "I claim", it is what the model's author (planB) have said repeatedly.
I see no point to cling to this model either (if it would be falsified).
Time (Dec 2021) will tell...at least with regards to the original and the followup S2F model(s).
S2FX model (the most recent one) does not have any time variable and could be ascertained only after a considerable time period, looking backwards.

[nullius]

Whilst working on something else, I will just leave this here for now...

Most people don’t know the origins of Antifa.  Antifascist Action (Antifaschistische Aktion), or “Antifa”, was originally founded in 1932 as a merger of the private armies/militias of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands, SPD in the below photo), a “liberal” Marxist-socialist party—and the German Communist Party (Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands, KPD).



The current version of the original Antifa logo, seen above:



The banner in the centre reads:  “ES LEBE DIE ROTE EINHEITSFRONT”.  In idiomatic English, I think that that slogan should be rendered:  “THE UNITED RED FRONT LIVES!”

The banners on the left and right read respectively:  “As the SPD [Social Democrats]” and “As the KPD [Communists]”.

The hammer-and-sickle flags need no explanation. ☭

So, yes:  Antifa are Communists.  It’s not merely my opinion that they are Communists; it’s not that they are like Communists, or maybe crypto-Communists:  The group originated as a merger of a self-described overt Communist group and a liberal-Marxist-socialist group, under the International Communist Red Flag.

N.b. that I knew the above-stated history before the pomo-Jacobins started bragging about it.  I’m not getting the history from them (or their twisted version thereof).  I have know the history for a long time.  I found the photo floating around the web somewhere awhile ago, and I have been trying properly to identify and to source it.

[nutildah]

So, yes:  Antifa are Communists.

Meh. You're talking about the original Antifa which was only in existence for about 2 years. They have technically been defunct since 1933. Modern day Antifa (as it pertains to the US) is not directly tied to any communist party, which have severely fallen out of favor starting in the mid 1940s. It's not directly tied to anything except the ideology of fighting fascism.

Not many people in the US or anywhere for that matter identify themselves as communists anymore, or even socialists. The majority of voting Antifa members are obviously going to vote for Biden and not Howie Hawkins, who is the socialist / green party candidate for this year.

Don't understand what the point of trying to pigeonhole an amorphous movement with no real leadership was.

[vapourminer]

..... how many joints in a lid?

“One.......I roll big joints man.....”

“AND THE JUDGES SAY THATS OKAY, THEY ROLL BIG JOINTS TOO!!!”

correct!

come to think of it, the answer always seems to be one no matter what the amount of weed. hmmm probably time to test those bed sheet size papers now. be back (probably much) later.

+1 WOsMerit



I get about 25 or so on average. Depends on whats happening and potency to some extent.
I am not sure how many even remember what a lid is or how much it is.

uh wut wer wee tauking aboutt?? niiiiiiiice

lidzs? bout trtee fitty

[JayJuanGee]

https://nypost.com/2020/10/02/chinese-state-media-outlet-mocks-trump-for-contracting-coronavirus/?utm_medium=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPTwitter

CCP asking for it. I bet Trump does something to really piss them off like officially recognizing Taiwan as a country.

A little global uncertainty will be good for King Bitcoin.

I doubt that it is in anyone's interest (especially BTC HODLers) to really be asking for more societal drama in order for king daddy bitcoin to prosper..

Bitcoin would likely be much better served by fewer Armageddon-wannabe scenarios.

Bitcoiners will be able to see what transpires in 14 13 mo, and if btc is below 55K (the lowest prediction value), then the model is invalidated and there are no other models with any predictive value whatsoever.

I like the fact that, finally, S2F is being harshly criticized because, in my mind, it is making the predictive values more likely to be achieved, paradoxically.

That seems to be a bit of a strange claim about the model being supposedly broken if the BTC price is below $55k by the end of next year...

We will see, Biodom, but your claim seems to be a bit strong and wishful on your behalf, Biodom.. I mean in terms of you wanting to proclaim that the model is either worth very little or not worth anything.. and it is as if you are just rooting on an ongoing basis that the model is not true... ...

for what reason, it is difficult to know for sure..

Seems to me that you are just overly bothered by the model and you are ongoingly trying to figure out ways to discount the model and suggest that it adds little to no value to our thinking about BTC price dynamics, no?

Also, it seems to me that BTC prices could be manipulated down for 13-14 months or even extending 2 years from now or longer .. in order to cause the stock to flow model to appear to be broken.. and so what would that ongoing and persistent manipulation accomplish exactly, if it were to happen?  

Seems to me that such ongoing downward manipulation could cause an explosive BTC price move later on down the road, or maybe such ongoing downward manipulation would cause a shifting of the trendline of the model to get pushed downward within the model.. so I am not clear why you believe that such need to potentially tweak the model would necessarily cause the model to be broken or invalid.. because the model is likely NOT guaranteeing as much as you seem to be wanting to argue that such model guarantees.

It is not what "I claim", it is what the model's author (planB) have said repeatedly.

That sounds more like your interpretation to me, but hey, maybe PlanB did say something that is that dumb...

"My model will be invalid, if it gets manipulated into quasi-oblivion because maths and science rules the world."

That would be a ridiculous posuture in regards to a model that is based on various probabilities rather than certainties.

I see no point to cling to this model either (if it would be falsified).

Of course, you hardly see any value in the model anyhow, you have already asserted that several times and you tend to repeat your assertions at almost any possible opportunity that you can.

Time (Dec 2021) will tell...at least with regards to the original and the followup S2F model(s).

Sure of course.  As I said, I am not wedded to that particular model even though it does seem to have a lot of explanatory effect in terms of where  we have been and where we are.  Sure, it is less solid in terms of its predictive effect, but surely still decently co-integrated in order to be amongst the best of the models including if you supplement it too by taking into account the four-year fractal and the s-curve exponential adoption based on networking effects and metcalfe principles. 

Surely, in my self-described humble bumble opinion, no need to go whining if the supposed bare minimum thresholds either are not met by the anticipated date or if there are delays in meeting such thresholds... but hey, aren't we (the royal we) repeating ourselves?

S2FX model (the most recent one) does not have any time variable and could be ascertained only after a considerable time period, looking backwards.

Surely, good to be a bit flexible on the time frames, even though surely we have seen quite decent past correlation with a couple of the past four-year fractals.. and even though such 4-year fractals are not set in stone, they have tended to show quite remarkable similarity patterns.. take such info (and timelines) with a grain of salt and be a doubting Tomas if it makes you feel more better about some of us becoming richie (hopefully you are included in such becoming MOAR richie status since you are neither waiting to buy nor failing/refusing to adequately pee pare ur lil selfie for UPpity..    even if you might be kicking and screaming the whole UPpity way towards getting materially closer and closer to fuck you and your mother status.... so long as you did not fail/refuse to adequately pee pare ur lil selfie..  ).

[Biodom]

Sorry, did not follow that.

pee what?

...whatever.

I know what bitcoin is, but really don't know who planB is...a Galileo (or Kepler)-like figure or a Pied Piper?
At first (and for a long time) I thought the former, but now...

[cAPSLOCK]

Not many people in the US or anywhere for that matter identify themselves as communists anymore, or even socialists.

Of course people are not going to identify with the failed political ideology responsible for more deaths than any other in the history of the world.

But one of the things the left is fucking good at?  Rebranding.

But that doesn't mean we are not staring at the same toilet full of shit.

Also... in my lifetime I can't thank of may words that seem to be more incorrectly used that "fascist".  I think most people using it have some smeary definition in their head that they equate with "the beliefs of people who I think are bossy and mean".  And this is the picture they hold in their head as they raise their fists and command some innocent couple trying to eat dinner repeat the words the (actual) fascists are screaming at them.

Irony abounds.

[nutildah]

But one of the things the left is fucking good at?  Rebranding.

The Democratic party has never been the Communist party. They're two entirely different things. So its not a "rebranding" of anything.

Also... in my lifetime I can't thank of may words that seem to be more incorrectly used that "fascist".

Funny, I feel the exact same way about people who over-use the word "communist."

[fillippone]

Fundamentally the market is scared for all the wrong reasons.

MEX did NOT get hacked. No traders will lose coins.

Futures exchanges will clean up their practices.

We'll see less volatility, less scam-wicking, more spot volumes, more organic moves, more institutional money.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311941304532627456?s=20

Meanwhile the on-chain fundamentals are showing more new investors are coming in than the mania phase of the last cycle (Dec 2017), without it reflected in price. This is because the unfettered trading games on derivative platforms is holding the price down.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311941306818555904?s=20

The CFTC just announced they are turning the volume down on unregulated derivative exchanges and their dominance on price.

BTC is going to pop.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311941309007970306?s=20

^Elwar said it to

This would be one of the most epic plot twist in history.
The icing of the cake is Elwar predicting it.

Adding a picture from one of Willy Woo Tweets:

The CFTC even hints of the future in the official press release.

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8270-20

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311911779040067587?s=21

That would be awesome...

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report



#dyor
1h



4h



D

#stronghands

[Hueristic]

But one of the things the left is fucking good at?  Rebranding.

When I was a conservative it meant fiscally conservative and now it means socially (religiously) conservative.

The right has been hijacked.

Irony abounds.

You got that right.

[JayJuanGee]

Sorry, did not follow that.

pee what?

...whatever.

I know what bitcoin is, but really don't know who planB is...a Galileo (or Kepler)-like figure or a Pied Piper?
At first (and for a long time) I thought the former, but now...

I could give less than two ratt's asses about who is planB.

The ideas do not matter in regards to who he is.

Either you appreciate the ideas or you do not, and largely, PlanB is not saying anything differently than what had been previously said before he came onto the bitcoin scene.  Sure, PlanB is organizing the ideas, but largely he is not saying anything new.

You seem to be distracted in terms of being against ideas for the mere sake of it, and tying such ideas to a person, and the person does not matter at all.

In any event, any of us should appreciate that PlanB has attempted to statistically lay out where BTC price has been, to show where we are at, to account for various ideas in the BTC space and projections of BTC's stock in order to create a meaning and plausible trajectory where BTC's price is likely to go, but he is NOT saying anything more than what was already known before he came into the space (and what he was saying was already being said in differing kinds of ways). 

So sure, currently, PlanB is resonating with peeps and he is packaging up ideas and information in a nice and lovely digestible package... which concededly in the end does end up adding some kind of value and message in and of itself.. but who cares, right?

Part of the point should be that we should not be putting any particular peeps on any kind of pedestal, so of course you are correct in that regard, Biodom... but anyhow, there are all kinds of idea contributors in the bitcoin space, and some peeps are more eloquent than other peeps.

Further, as I said before, there could be a whole hell of a lot of deviation from the BTC price prediction model of PlanB too, based on actual human behavior (manipulations) and also strivenings to cause the BTC price prediction models to become untrue or to make it look like it is NOT true, but until such deviations from PlanB's price prediction model take place or there becomes any need to shift the terms of the model, the model continues to be amongst the best of the datafying of the BTC price predictions...

So sure, this particular PlanB price prediction model is true, until it is NOT.. and even if it might NOT appear to be true, it still might be true...

But still at the same time, fuck PlanB.  NO deifying of peeps - except maybe satoshi, and maybe even that is not appropriate, either? 

So maybe I should say, fuck satoshi, too... hopefully not appearing to be either blasphemous, bitter or ungrateful.. so there is some agreement about no need to deify peeps while still remaining appreciative of their contributions to the space and the ideas which are embedded into the contributions of many others besides Plan B and besides satoshi in order to come to these various kinds of grandeur ideas that have developed from many.  On the other hand, just like you might be suggesting, Biodom, together we can pray to king daddy.. not trying to put words in your lil mousie.. ....

pee pare ur lil selfie... and perhaps thank me later...      

[Biodom]

Posting this without comment:

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1311926743784095746

S2F model is quite possibly an underestimate - model fails upwards, like Bitcoin, "failing" upwards since 2009. Then we'll need a new hyperbitcoinization model.

[JayJuanGee]

Posting this without comment:

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1311926743784095746

S2F model is quite possibly an underestimate - model fails upwards, like Bitcoin, "failing" upwards since 2009. Then we'll need a new hyperbitcoinization model.

You seem angry.. Biodom.

Note the expression:  "quite possibly"   Doesn't that give you any sense of assurances?  

You seem to want to proclaim that an overpromising has been going on, and you are going to be resentful if such projected happening does not happen and a bunch of innocent peeps (maybe not you) are mislead into being overly bullish about bitcoin.. and accordingly, a bunch of bulltards exist within the BTC space.. not only PlanB  (who you likely have engaged in the fallacy of misplaced concreteness with regards to his arguments) but also dragging Adam Back into your argument target zone of suggesting that he, too, is making overzealous promises in regards to underlying bitcoin price dynamics..

i.e another person you believe to be overpromising in regards to the future of bitcoin....

Be responsible and take these kinds of representations with a grain of salt - no one is being misled, except dummies.. no investment advice is being given, because each of us needs to conclude for our own lil selfies whether to invest in BTC or not, how much to invest and how to go about investing, if we do - because as you know.. peeps are responsible for themselves and there are no guarantees in bitcoinlandia, even if some peeps draw lines on papers or computer screens and present price prediction models in order to help you (and others) to pee pare ur lil selfies for UPpity (that may or may not happening)..  

The mere placement of those lines on the page / computer screen does not guarantee anything, even if such guarantees seem to be appearing as if they were concrete in your thinking about the situation.. because you see them on a piece of paper/computer screen.

Yes.. you are going to kick and scream while bitcoin is going up (why have we been stuck in $10ks for more than 3 years.. blah blah blah). and say that you have NOT been underinvesting in king daddy, but it is quite hard to imagine that you are NOT holding back some of your value because you remain skeptical and scared and so worried about supposed over guarantees that have been taking place in regards to bitcoin price UPpity.    

I must admit that you most likely need a batman slap.      (no homo)

[philipma1957]

But one of the things the left is fucking good at?  Rebranding.

When I was a conservative it meant fiscally conservative and now it means socially (religiously) conservative.

The right has been hijacked.

Irony abounds.

You got that right.

There were liberals in the republic party and conservatives in the democratic party.

Rhino 🦏 was a nonexistent concept.

The most dangerous thing possible has happened right wing and extreme right wing are all republican.

left wing and extreme left wing are all democrats.

Bipartisanship is shot. It is a fucking mess.

[Biodom]

GBTC premium is just 6.3% (5th lowest value during the last 5 years).
ETF "drums" are still at a distance, but getting louder.

[JayJuanGee]

GBTC premium is just 6.3% (5th lowest value during the last 5 years).
ETF "drums" are still at a distance, but getting louder.

Conclusion?

BTC prices stable now?  BTC losing volatility?

BTC prices are going to stay "stable" from here on out?  (let's say within a few thousand dollars - maybe $8,500 to $12,500 for a couple years, until October-ish of 2022, at least?) 

Upcoming "stable" BTC price movements are going to established earlier propagated BTC price prediction models as NOT valid?



I would NOT suggest such a BTC "stable prices" thesis to be completely out of the question, but gosh, what would be the odds?  Would anyone believe such thing to be possible?

The odds would likely be quite low.., no?

Something less than 20%?  Perhaps even lower, no?