Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[serveria.com]

FTFY:

But between people who call it a hoax, and people who overact to it a little with insane panic?  The first set are the idiots.

Why not both?

The real problem is simpletons with absolutely binary thinking:  Either Covid must be treated as the new Black Death, or Covid does not exist.  How about some nuance and rationality?

P.S.,

The trick with Covid is it is so contagious that just about all of us are going to get it.  And that means that <1% who it kills?  There are a lot of them.

That hearkens back to my own first public statement on Covid.  Guess what, 100.0% of humans die—and as you yourself noted, people are going to get Covid anyway.

Obsessive fear of Death destroys life, especially if it parlays a not-very-scary Plague into very-scary Famine.  And/or War.

Dear readers of the forum:

Some of you will die from the coronavirus.  (—Some few of you:  The virus has low lethality except to the aged or otherwise frail.)  The virus may kill me, too; maybe, maybe not.  That is acceptable:  Life is risk, and death is a part of life.  My only sadness is that sometimes, the worst befalls the best of people.

What is unacceptable is panic, bureaucratic “do something!” tyranny, and worst of all, hybris.

I hereby use an archaic spelling for the subject of a principle long forgot.

The only difference between using a six shooter then playing Russian roulette with it and going to parties and bars is the math.

1 in 6 vs   1 in 100000 if you are young and truly healthy.

Most won't play the 1 in 6 game and right now too many play the 1 in 100,000 game.

In a years time there will be treatments for it that are not vaccines. Regeneron comes to mind. So why not play it safe for a while.

Now this is a 63 year old typing  not a 28 year old.

This! Exactly my thoughts! Why risk it? According to some reports Covid ruins your balls. I'm 39 now and I wouldn't want to miss out the hookers part of hookers/lambos/blow when we'll hit 100k next year....

[bitebits]

https://blockstream.info/tx/30aac0c2fd89bce5299344d2f1d8ed2aea5ebe03b662c96fc2d7b70515f238e6?output:0


1000 BTC freshly mined in 2010 moved 165 blocks ago.

What does it mean, bitebits?

The early miner seems to be splitting his 50btc block rewards into 10btc chunks. Speculating about the why, maybe to slowly DCA out on the way up without jeopardizing 50btc at the time on an exchange? Plausible since the miner is holding onto those private keys since 2010, clearly not trusting a third party. And obviously extremely bullish long term, clearly believing at prices way above the previous ATH because he would have sold long ago otherwise. Even at $100k a 50btc block is worth $5 million, which can easily be considered too much at once to sell and expose to an exchange and bank. The 2010 miners were quite likely not rich by any means at the time, a 50btc block is likely still more than just pocket change to them.

Why not just send 10btc to an exchange and 40btc to a change address at the time of selling? Don’t know, maybe he wil just hand over the private key to an OTC desk?

Or maybe he is preparing to be able to sell the BCH and BSV forks? The BCH moved as well, the BSV did not.

[yslyv]

Will charts work during election? What is going to happen if Trump does not get re-elected? up or down. lets see, popcorn mode on   

[fillippone]

Good morning WO Gang!

One of the most epic tweet by PlanB!
(Sound on)

🔴Current red dot higher than all other red dots .. when the bull began his run (🔊 sound on!)

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1315767595115651072?s=21

[Last of the V8s]

@nwoodfine

[aesma]

This Trump assessment was right, the problem was that the conclusion he made : do less tests ! That was of course totally stupid.

There should be a way to emphasize the difference between now that we have massive testing capacity, and the early part of the pandemic. Because right now when looking at COVID cases over time things look really scary, but looking at people in hospital with COVID, much less scary.

[aesma]

Meantime this is a pretty good compilation of modern conspiracies. Where do we fall on this spectrum?

(Hint: I hit the "Hollow Earth" level myself)

Interesting that they consider Covid being made in a lab as a lower probability than Elvis still being alive.

That was surely worded poorly, Should be Covid doesn't exist.

There is also a big difference between "COVID escaped from a lab" which is quite possible, but only some Chinese people know for sure, and "COVID was made in a lab". Conspiracy theorists will take any hint the former happened to jump to the latter.

[Phil_S]

Deep State and George Soros are 100% real deal. Should be at the bottom.

Tells you a lot about the author.

[Phil_S]

4 years

Oct 12, 2016
Oct 12, 2020

[Cryptotourist]

#ronnie.the.rocket

[tranthidung]

The message is "Bitcoin is the King!"

I took a few top and old altcoins for this dataset. If you need more, you can ask!

• Data source: https://coinmarketcap.com
• Price: is low of daily price
• Bitcoin pumps: % changes between 2 consecutive days >= 5%
• Bitcoin dump: % changes between 2 consecutive days <=  -5%

FINDINGS

• In 2020, so far, there are 14 pumps and 11 dumps (based on above definitions) from bitcoin
• Bitcoin does perform stronger than altcoins.
• When bitcoin pumps, altcoins increase less than bitcoin. (look at p50)
• When bitcoin dumps, altcoins fell deeper than bitcoin. (look at p50)

Overall

Easily to see that the time-series of pclowBTC is almost overlapped and covered by others. It means generally the percent changes of BTC are smaller than of altcoins (in this dataset).

For specific coin

Over specific years (I choose 3 years: 2018, 2019 and 2020)

Raw data for 2020
Pumps

Code:

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    pclowBTC |        14  8.900714  5.012295     7.455      6.34       9.6      5.11     24.79
   pclowDASH |        14  8.879286  9.402313     6.565      3.11      9.87     -1.29     31.02
    pclowETH |        14  8.196429  7.176675      5.13       4.2     11.84      -.63     28.61
    pclowLTC |        14  8.193571  7.878448     6.705      3.81      8.81      1.24     33.12
    pclowXLM |        14      5.93  7.630899       4.8      1.81      7.26     -1.35     29.71
    pclowXMR |        14      8.44  8.202507      6.62      3.94       9.6      -.16      33.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dumps

Code:

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    pclowBTC |        11 -11.15818  9.042039     -8.83    -12.37     -5.39    -36.41     -5.12
   pclowDASH |        11 -14.24091  8.896276    -13.65    -19.06     -5.91    -33.95     -4.48
    pclowETH |        11 -12.79091  9.679633    -10.37    -14.41     -7.03    -39.68     -4.15
    pclowLTC |        11 -13.55909  8.184129    -13.92    -16.52      -8.5    -33.76     -4.21
    pclowXLM |        11 -12.02273  7.210211     -11.6    -14.65     -5.91    -30.62     -5.33
    pclowXMR |        11 -13.01364  8.834594    -11.82    -16.65     -6.36    -35.98     -5.97
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Code:

     +----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     |      date   pclowBTC   pclowETH   pclowD~H   pclowXMR   pclowXLM   pclowLTC     pc_cat |
     |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. | 04jan2020       5.71       5.18       7.44        9.6       1.81       6.29   BTC pump |
  2. | 15jan2020       6.34      11.84      27.36       7.35       6.19      13.04   BTC pump |
  3. | 14mar2020      24.79      28.61      31.02       33.3      29.71      33.12   BTC pump |
  4. | 17mar2020       8.89       4.98       8.13      12.78       7.64       7.12   BTC pump |
  5. | 20mar2020      12.01       6.87       11.7       4.45       3.08       5.58   BTC pump |
  6. | 24mar2020      10.82       9.27       9.67      14.22       7.26       8.05   BTC pump |
  7. | 31mar2020       7.98       5.08       5.69       5.89       5.72       3.81   BTC pump |
  8. | 02apr2020       6.35       4.62       4.17        3.2       3.17       4.81   BTC pump |
  9. | 07apr2020       5.22      14.39       5.46       3.94       9.66       8.81   BTC pump |
 10. | 17apr2020       7.55       12.9       9.87       8.18       7.07       8.81   BTC pump |
 11. | 30apr2020        9.6        4.2      -1.29       -.16      -1.18       1.24   BTC pump |
 12. | 08may2020       6.88       3.35        .79       8.99        .36       3.55   BTC pump |
 13. | 14may2020       5.11       4.09       1.19       2.05      -1.35       1.26   BTC pump |
 14. | 28jul2020       7.36       -.63       3.11       4.37       3.88       9.22   BTC pump |
     |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 15. | 26feb2020      -6.45     -10.37     -15.62      -8.44     -11.59      -16.4   BTC dump |
 16. | 08mar2020      -8.83     -15.55     -15.32     -13.91     -13.11      -14.5   BTC dump |
 17. | 09mar2020      -5.12      -4.15       -7.8      -6.54       -5.6       -8.6   BTC dump |
 18. | 12mar2020     -36.41     -39.68     -33.95     -35.98     -30.62     -33.76   BTC dump |
 19. | 13mar2020      -15.5     -14.41     -23.33     -18.92      -14.8     -16.52   BTC dump |
 20. | 16mar2020     -11.49     -13.69     -13.65     -16.65      -11.6      -10.5   BTC dump |
 21. | 28mar2020      -5.39      -5.21      -5.91      -6.27      -5.33       -4.6   BTC dump |
 22. | 10apr2020      -5.25      -7.79      -4.48      -6.36      -6.21       -8.5   BTC dump |
 23. | 10may2020     -12.37     -12.61     -12.48     -11.82     -14.65     -13.92   BTC dump |
 24. | 21may2020      -6.11      -7.03      -5.05      -5.97      -5.91      -4.21   BTC dump |
 25. | 03sep2020      -9.82     -10.21     -19.06     -12.29     -12.83     -17.64   BTC dump |
     +----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Correction for my past work. It is a shame that today when I played with data again, I found a bug in my code for past update. I am sorry for this. You can ignore that post (data validity is unknow, I took from another source).

The newest one is correct and data validity is good (from coinmarketcap.com). So I am sorry again and enjoy today update.

Yearly low price of bitcoin:

• Data source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/
• Observed period: 29/4/2013 - 06/10/2020.
• min_l: Min of daily low price for each specific year.
• percent_change: % of changes in min_l between 2 consecutive years

• During the period of almost 8 years, the lowest yearly price of BTC has 7 years with increase (positive in percent_change), only has 1 year with a fall (negative in percent_change, at -40.7 % in 2015).
• Min and max percent of increase is 6.3% (2019) and 341.5% (2014).
• Also, see median_l, p25l and p75l (in statistics and in chart) to see the continuous growth (yearly low price) of bitcoin
• Make double check with another dataset from 2010 to 2020 that I made in WO
  

Raw results:

Code:

     +---------------------------------+
     | year     min_l   percent_change |
     |---------------------------------|
  1. | 2013     65.53                . |
  2. | 2014     289.3           341.48 |
  3. | 2015    171.51           -40.72 |
  4. | 2016    354.91           106.93 |
  5. | 2017    755.76           112.94 |
     |---------------------------------|
  6. | 2018    3191.3           322.26 |
  7. | 2019   3391.02             6.26 |
  8. | 2020   4106.98            21.11 |
     +---------------------------------+

[Karartma1]

https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-cruise-ship-satoshi/
I guess we knew it already on the Wall Observer.
Sorry for the media outlet posted, that's where I found it.

Always on the WO first, don't forget.

EDIT:The following is thanks to fillippone since I was in a rush and couldn't find it myself

it was announced precisely on the WO:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55314610#msg55314610

[El duderino_]

Just arrested and
@officialmcafee
 already launched the next shitcoin called Prison Coin - a P2P payment network at correctional facilities Lachend gezicht met zonnebril

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMemeHub/status/1313386376092581888?s=20

The video made me laugh 

[El duderino_]

I call this series

" Museum of Fools"

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMemeHub/status/1304345627971612674?s=20

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/MMCrypto/status/1315941560190631937?s=20

[serveria.com]

Dying bear, fearful,
cold, alone, gazes sadly
at the rising moon

(I tried to make that
a little more bucolic
JimboToronto)

a day late

This is so underrated this one... deserves much more merit imho... 

[aesma]

Deep State and George Soros are 100% real deal. Should be at the bottom.

Tells you a lot about the author.

Is George Soros financing US politicians ? Yes, like many other billionaires of all sides. That's not a conspiracy theory. The conspiracy is that he's part of the QAnon delirium with pedophilia, satanism etc.

Deep state, what does that even mean ?

[vapourminer]

Deep state, what does that even mean ?

[soullyG]

heh, nice edit vapour, we think alike

[Phil_S]

Is such a thing even possible?