Analysis

[N12]

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead.

You never know - if Bitcoin falls an additionally from here and he buys them back cheaper, he's going to look like he has smart hands.

Don't assume you know the future.

I don't know the future, but I do know the past (obviously, he sold at the very least into a local bottom), and we can infer that this person had no experience in trading given that he decided to sell everything at one single exchange (Bitstamp had a large price differential to the other exchanges) and the way he did it.

[Brisance]

Bitcoin had a nice rally from 300 to 400 but now we are back to what it has been doing best since January a continuation of it's decline.

Currently 340 acts as a base of support while 360 seems to have settled for resistance at least on one exchange Bitstamp. I see this declining in the coming weeks because the market failed to sustain 400 while only a weak attempt at 420 was made. Keep an eye out on the 340 base if this gets taken out and we hold under this I see 250 coming within weeks or a month.

The issue here is a matter of volume the market doesn't have enough to sustain and hold any decent rallies as traders look to take profit. In the good old days traders would simply buy and sell Bitcoins to one another now however traders could care less if Bitcoin rises or falls because money can be made on either side of the trade with short selling.

796, okcoin futures, Bitfinex just to name a few have now made it profitable for traders to be bearish on Bitcoin. You need to take note that in a futures market with high liquidity it has a bearing on the price of an underlying asset in this case Bitcoin so this could have an impact on the market price.

The current Bearish sentiment is 250/190 and if a miracle in bullish volume were to happen 420.  The weekly s1 pivot is 340 and the r1 is 380, we have now done the 50% retracement so where traders decide to go next will be interesting in the coming days.

[BrightAnarchist]

I don't know the future, but I do know the past (obviously, he sold at the very least into a local bottom), and we can infer that this person had no experience in trading given that he decided to sell everything at one single exchange (Bitstamp had a large price differential to the other exchanges) and the way he did it.

This is true

[Tzupy]

A comparison of the October 2011 chart with the current one tells me that the bulls should test
and break the 420$ resistance about the 5th - 6th November, in order to assure that 275$ was THE bottom.
Failure to do so would increase the chances for the bearish scenario, in which 275$ won't hold and my
current best guesstimate would be about 180$ (don't ask why, multiple reasons, including a gut feeling).

[p2pbucks]

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead.

Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan 

[lebing]

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead.

Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan 

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

[MoreFun]

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead.

Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

No, it wasn't placed after it hit 300 but that wall was actually dump to $300 and seller already sold 3-5k with that dump. Then more sellers and stop losses came and pushed price even lower. That wall managed to reach sub $300 price, becacause above $300 were nice walls before dump. Just saying, maybe everything was manipulation... probably.

[masterluc]

Guess what

[ft73]

Guess what

You may want to see here:
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

Check "Gold Price" correlation.

What puzzles me is that BTC is more tightly correlated to "Google share price"

EDIT: and "highly anti-correlated" to "Bitcoin Repos on Github". So please stop creating repos

[CoolStoryBro]

You may want to see here:
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

Check "Gold Price" correlation.

What puzzles me is that BTC is more tightly correlated to "Google share price"

EDIT: and "highly anti-correlated" to "Bitcoin Repos on Github". So please stop creating repos

any way to get the same graphs on longer scale?

[thefiniteidea]

Guess what

You may want to see here:
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

Check "Gold Price" correlation.

What puzzles me is that BTC is more tightly correlated to "Google share price"

EDIT: and "highly anti-correlated" to "Bitcoin Repos on Github". So please stop creating repos

Lucif, I'm not sure how to use that site, but I'd be curious to see what the correlation is with DDD

[seleme]

To be honest, if it is correlated with something it's USD strength. I wouldn't call correlation with current gold drop because dollar massacred everything recently, not just gold.

I doubled my small forex playing account today trading EUR and yen drop vs dollar. Gold,silver, GBP, CAD, AUD.. everything crashed vs dollar.

[masterluc]

Yes, it's dollar - world most valued paper.

[XCASH]

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead.

Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

No, it wasn't placed after it hit 300 but that wall was actually dump to $300 and seller already sold 3-5k with that dump. Then more sellers and stop losses came and pushed price even lower. That wall managed to reach sub $300 price, becacause above $300 were nice walls before dump. Just saying, maybe everything was manipulation... probably.

I remember the price going down to about $276, then going back up again. It was hours later when the giant wall appeared.

[MoreFun]

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead.

Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

No, it wasn't placed after it hit 300 but that wall was actually dump to $300 and seller already sold 3-5k with that dump. Then more sellers and stop losses came and pushed price even lower. That wall managed to reach sub $300 price, becacause above $300 were nice walls before dump. Just saying, maybe everything was manipulation... probably.

I remember the price going down to about $276, then going back up again. It was hours later when the giant wall appeared.

No, the 30k+ whale pushed it down below $300 and after few minutes pulled it of $300 and set it to $320. Then he pulled it again and after few hours again dump to $300 where it was eaten in 6 hours.

[sniveling]

Yes it was something like that. This shows a rough picture of it, but it misses out the finer details.

[Tzupy]

Now that the bullish scenario is looking unlikely, I reviewed the bearish one, and it could be more advanced than I thought.
Here is my current most probable scenario, with a bottom between 150$ and 200$, depending on how many whales will panic.

[seleme]

What about this?

[boumalo]

Now that the bullish scenario is looking unlikely, I reviewed the bearish one, and it could be more advanced than I thought.
Here is my current most probable scenario, with a bottom between 150$ and 200$, depending on how many whales will panic.

Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin

[masterluc]

Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin

It will crash no doubt. But when - nobody knows. US govs need a way to something to do with unpayable 20 trillion debt. But when they fool everyone nobody knows. So far DXY rises to be believed most valued thing in the world. Then (when everyone ensured USD is GOD) should be a final global fraud to cancel US debt.

They already shared their dotcom and mortage shit along USD holders with QE. Final stage ahead. Our problems = USD holder problems. So one day they'll say - bye bye USD holders, bye bye our problems.