Analysis

[Igluenza]

Right? It works until it doesn't anymore.

All I'm saying is he's a witty technical analysis genius.

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[RyNinDaCleM]

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

[seleme]

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

Elliot Wave.

It's like reading books for kids on high drugs 

[thiec]

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

Elliot Wave.

It's like reading books for kids on high drugs 

LOL
EW mostly work in theory and hard to match in market. 100 People draw EW will have 100 different picture result

[Miz4r]

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

Elliot Wave.

It's like reading books for kids on high drugs  

LOL
EW mostly work in theory and hard to match in market. 100 People draw EW will have 100 different picture result

That's the problem with EW right there, there are so many different possible counts that there's always one that matches, but it's impossible to predict which count is the right one until the future actually shows us. Maybe traders with good market intuition are able to make money using EW theory, but I'd say that's because of their intuition and not because EW itself has any predictive value. Perhaps EW theory should be seen as a tool to develop this market intuition. Doesn't work for everyone of course but that's why there are many different tools for many different people.

[ask]

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

Elliot Wave.

It's like reading books for kids on high drugs 

LOL
EW mostly work in theory and hard to match in market. 100 People draw EW will have 100 different picture result

That's the problem with EW right there, there are so many different possible counts that there's always one that matches, but it's impossible to predict which count is the right one until the future actually shows us. Maybe traders with good market intuition are able to make money using EW theory, but I'd say that's because of their intuition and not because EW itself has any predictive value.

Agree. EW is just method, which work fine on paper, but reallity is completely different.

[Tzupy]

My current evaluation of the market: the bulls have shown unexpected strength on the offensive, but were unable to hold the conquered ground.
This means the seller pressure is still high, as seen in red volume, and the retracements go too deep to be consistent with an incipient bull market.
However, if the bulls manage another pump to about 500$, then a double bottom at about 275$ in late December becomes possible.

[oda.krell]

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

Elliot Wave.

It's like reading books for kids on high drugs  

LOL
EW mostly work in theory and hard to match in market. 100 People draw EW will have 100 different picture result

That's the problem with EW right there, there are so many different possible counts that there's always one that matches, but it's impossible to predict which count is the right one until the future actually shows us. Maybe traders with good market intuition are able to make money using EW theory, but I'd say that's because of their intuition and not because EW itself has any predictive value. Perhaps EW theory should be seen as a tool to develop this market intuition. Doesn't work for everyone of course but that's why there are many different tools for many different people.

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said that he thinks we're about to see the "end of the historical bull market since BTC trading began".

That's something that simply didn't even cross my mind at the time.

EW is fantastic as a tool at sharpening your intuition and making you consider all (or almost all) possible future market pictures, bullish, bearish, and in between.

People who dismiss EW as useless because "10 different people get 10 different counts" simply never realized that in order to successfully weigh all possible future outcomes by likelihood (i.e. making a prediction), you first have to consider all possible outcomes. And that's where the EW counts come in.

[RyNinDaCleM]

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

Elliot Wave.

It's like reading books for kids on high drugs  

LOL
EW mostly work in theory and hard to match in market. 100 People draw EW will have 100 different picture result

That's the problem with EW right there, there are so many different possible counts that there's always one that matches, but it's impossible to predict which count is the right one until the future actually shows us. Maybe traders with good market intuition are able to make money using EW theory, but I'd say that's because of their intuition and not because EW itself has any predictive value. Perhaps EW theory should be seen as a tool to develop this market intuition. Doesn't work for everyone of course but that's why there are many different tools for many different people.

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said that he thinks we're about to see the "end of the historical bull market since BTC trading began".

That's something that simply didn't even cross my mind at the time.

EW is fantastic as a tool at sharpening your intuition and making you consider all (or almost all) possible future market pictures, bullish, bearish, and in between.

People who dismiss EW as useless because "10 different people get 10 different counts" simply never realized that in order to successfully weigh all possible future outcomes by likelihood (i.e. making a prediction), you first have to consider all possible outcomes. And that's where the EW counts come in.

Good break down there.
I'll add, that when you use it in conjunction with other tools, the picture becomes clearer and those 10 counts can be refined into 2 or 3 counts as more probable. Then you can set orders and stops based on those to get you in either way it goes.

Sometimes the counts align such that it must go up first no matter where the larger picture is heading, so you get a very good trade R:R ratio

[Alonzo Ewing]

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said that he thinks we're about to see the "end of the historical bull market since BTC trading began".
....

So does anyone want to provide a long term E-Wave count for Bitcoin from the beginning of Bitcoin's trading history?

[hdbuck]

shall we go lower???

[RyNinDaCleM]

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said that he thinks we're about to see the "end of the historical bull market since BTC trading began".
....

So does anyone want to provide a long term E-Wave count for Bitcoin from the beginning of Bitcoin's trading history?

I haven't made one recently, but this is one I made during the correction of the April bubble last year using Gox data


It is slightly different now, but it has the "historical" [ I ]/[ II ] count. According to this, the April high was [III], but I later changed that. I might be able to get something with the more recent data tomorrow or something

[Tzupy]

When the current support at about 320$ will be broken, it will become major resistance.
After THE bottom, the first sub-wave of wave 1 will test it and maybe briefly break it for a push to 350$ (mid-term bull trap).
Since the current market is more volatile than the June - July 2013 one, I expect the rally from THE bottom to 350$
to be % more than the 59% of 7th - 12th July 2013, I'd guess about 80% - 90%. This would put THE bottom around 190$.

[var53]

When the current support at about 320$ will be broken, it will become major resistance.
After THE bottom, the first sub-wave of wave 1 will test it and maybe briefly break it for a push to 350$ (mid-term bull trap).
Since the current market is more volatile than the June - July 2013 one, I expect the rally from THE bottom to 350$
to be % more than the 59% of 7th - 12th July 2013, I'd guess about 80% - 90%. This would put THE bottom around 190$.

When do you predict this will happen?

[Tzupy]

...
When do you predict this will happen?

I am waiting for more reference points, to be able to guesstimate more accurate timings. Right now what I could say is based on historical data.

[oda.krell]

Since we seem to be playing 'Predict the mid term outlook', here's my contest entry... roadmap of the next month(s), roughly along the daily MA20/50/200.

Don't get too hung up about the exact extension of the SMAs I drew in, they're naturally imprecise, and just serve to illustrate the big picture of support and resistances.

Similar for the time frame. I put the "SMA200 decision point" probably too far into the future. More likely actually we'll get there towards the end of 2014/January 2015 than March 2015 where it's in my graph - I just needed the space to draw in the trend outlines I see as possible, maybe likely.



What's the take home message I'm trying to describe here?

1) Mainly based on volume during the $275 capitulation, and volume/price action since then, I expect to see a test of SMA200 before making a new low. In other words: (a) we're going up significantly before (b) we're going down significantly. My odds for (a) vs (b): ~ 2:1.

2) There are two ways to get to SMA200: (a) the slow, painful route (full of retests of the slower MA50), and (b) the faster one, where we're (mainly) staying above MA20. My odds for (a) vs. (b): ~ 3:2.

3) Once we get to SMA200, two ways to decide if we break into a "real" rally: (a) with a substantial price drop, likely aiming for MA50 again, or (b) without it. Odds (a) vs. (b): (depends on the way we get there, but under my current assumptions): ~ 2:1

4) We'll break and stay above MA200 (a), or we're falling back below (b) (possibly towards a new, sub 275 low). Odds: No idea right now. Heavily depends on volume/price action on the way there, and once we get there.

tl;dr I expect MA200 test, mid term, but it'll be a rocky road to get there.

[WaffleMaster]

Anyone else noticing the new upward channel? 

[ssmc2]

Anyone else noticing the new upward channel? 

We had an upward channel in April/May as well...until we didn't. 

[BTCtrader71]

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said ....

Is that DanV?

[oda.krell]

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said ....

Is that DanV?

Haha, no... master = masterluc = lucif = 80% of the time it pays off to pay attention to the guy