[XMR] Monero Speculation

[DaveyJones]

I am buying it but it is important to let the other people to buy it as well..
I do not want this to be only our coin but we want to embrace a lot of new adoption.

The site should be marketed (or spammed if you do not want to be politically correct) right (perhaps some google ads? send hints to mainstream media, get articles to big news papers - that could lead even a news story on TV - who knows).

One step after the other... let us first have a proper stable product before anything else.

[1714614668]

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[1714614668]

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[TrueCryptonaire]

I am buying it but it is important to let the other people to buy it as well..
I do not want this to be only our coin but we want to embrace a lot of new adoption.

The site should be marketed (or spammed if you do not want to be politically correct) right (perhaps some google ads? send hints to mainstream media, get articles to big news papers - that could lead even a news story on TV - who knows).

One step after the other... let us first have a proper stable product before anything else.

You see, there might be some "wannabe early adopters" who want to buy a coin when it is still at its infant state - and they are discouraged to buy the coin once it is a finished product. Now Monero can be marketed as a great potential as it is not ready yet.
Once it is ready, then it is time to look for larger investments (like millions of usd in one shot), then the mainstream (whatever market share it means).

[rpietila]

I also agree that the product (Monero) is ready enough to be marketed, but please don't use the site (moneroinvestment.com) for the marketing until we have made that ready. Should not take long!

[DaveyJones]

I am buying it but it is important to let the other people to buy it as well..
I do not want this to be only our coin but we want to embrace a lot of new adoption.

The site should be marketed (or spammed if you do not want to be politically correct) right (perhaps some google ads? send hints to mainstream media, get articles to big news papers - that could lead even a news story on TV - who knows).

One step after the other... let us first have a proper stable product before anything else.

You see, there might be some "wannabe early adopters" who want to buy a coin when it is still at its infant state - and they are discouraged to buy the coin once it is a finished product. Now Monero can be marketed as a great potential as it is not ready yet.
Once it is ready, then it is time to look for larger investments (like millions of usd in one shot), then the mainstream (whatever market share it means).

I disagree with you ... that kind of people would have had more than a year now to find about Monero. It´s not like this was some 1 week PoS Coin. If you want to market or "spam" do it outside of BCT where no one has heard of it or even BTC.

Bullish is good... but rubbing it into everyones face in every post is just annoying...

My two millinero

[jehst]

I also agree that the product (Monero) is ready enough to be marketed, but please don't use the site (moneroinvestment.com) for the marketing until we have made that ready. Should not take long!

Do you have someone who is editing the text on moneroinvestment.com?

If not, I will gladly help polish it (for free).

[TrueCryptonaire]

I am buying it but it is important to let the other people to buy it as well..
I do not want this to be only our coin but we want to embrace a lot of new adoption.

The site should be marketed (or spammed if you do not want to be politically correct) right (perhaps some google ads? send hints to mainstream media, get articles to big news papers - that could lead even a news story on TV - who knows).

One step after the other... let us first have a proper stable product before anything else.

You see, there might be some "wannabe early adopters" who want to buy a coin when it is still at its infant state - and they are discouraged to buy the coin once it is a finished product. Now Monero can be marketed as a great potential as it is not ready yet.
Once it is ready, then it is time to look for larger investments (like millions of usd in one shot), then the mainstream (whatever market share it means).

I disagree with you ... that kind of people would have had more than a year now to find about Monero. It´s not like this was some 1 week PoS Coin. If you want to market or "spam" do it outside of BCT where no one has heard of it or even BTC.

Bullish is good... but rubbing it into everyones face in every post is just annoying...

My two millinero

Writing in bitcointalk has nothing to do with marketing anymore.
Marketing is done outside of this forum.
Writing here can be considered as trolling and it is fun.

[cAPSLOCK]

The site should be marketed (or spammed if you do not want to be politically correct) right

I will not belabor this point any further after this.

It is not a matter of being politically correct.  It is a matter of positioning. And the language we use is indicative of our intentions.  Spamming is vinyl siding sales fliers attached to doorknobs.  Spamming is fools posting MLM videos all over youtube for the same non-product in the hopes to take money from other fools.  Spamming is indiscriminate, base, crass shotgun marketing with no plan and no respect for the product of the victim of the marketing.

It makes it seem like you want to make a buck quick.  And whether or not that is true... if this APPEARS to bethe motive it will drive away smarter (richer) speculators.

I like what you seem to want to say:  We need to get the word out.  To market.  But cleanly, professionally, positively.

It starts here before it turns into a financial paper advertisement.

[dEBRUYNE]

100 people taking the advice is 300k. 1000 people taking the advice is 3m. There won't be enough for 10k people to take the advice. Even right now, there's only enough for less than 3k people to take the advice. In 3 years, there's still only enough for 6k people to take the advice, excluding current major holders. Likely, there will only be 3-4k people that ever need to take the advice.

So where can we find another 3-4k people in 3 years? Given the small amount needed and the number of us there already are, a considerable amount of time can be spent per 'recruit'.

Say there's 200 of us now. If we each find 15-20 people that think they want to take the advice and do it over the next three years, well be way okay.

Shouldn't be too bad. Go make a single new middle class friend every two months from now until three years from now. Get them to take the advice.

Seems like hardly any work at all, given the yield.

Surely your chances of making a single new friend every two months for the next three years is greater than 1%, right?

I'm interested in monero but seeing you talk about "a considerable amount of time can be spent per 'recruit'" sets some red flags.
You really should try to make it sound less like a pyramid sheme because your whole post is drenched in a pyramid flavour.

I was catching up on this thread and stumbled upon this reply. I know it sounds bad, but don't let yourself get turned off by one community member

Regarding speculation, we'll probably bounce around in the 18-21 for a couple more weeks until something notable happens in the XMR atmosphere. Looking at NoodleDoodle's commit, I think a new tagged release including the DB is close though.

[kazuki49]

100 people taking the advice is 300k. 1000 people taking the advice is 3m. There won't be enough for 10k people to take the advice. Even right now, there's only enough for less than 3k people to take the advice. In 3 years, there's still only enough for 6k people to take the advice, excluding current major holders. Likely, there will only be 3-4k people that ever need to take the advice.

So where can we find another 3-4k people in 3 years? Given the small amount needed and the number of us there already are, a considerable amount of time can be spent per 'recruit'.

Say there's 200 of us now. If we each find 15-20 people that think they want to take the advice and do it over the next three years, well be way okay.

Shouldn't be too bad. Go make a single new middle class friend every two months from now until three years from now. Get them to take the advice.

Seems like hardly any work at all, given the yield.

Surely your chances of making a single new friend every two months for the next three years is greater than 1%, right?

I'm interested in monero but seeing you talk about "a considerable amount of time can be spent per 'recruit'" sets some red flags.
You really should try to make it sound less like a pyramid sheme because your whole post is drenched in a pyramid flavour.

No sir, its you that are setting your flags wrong, you are underestimating the value of Monero as an investment in this post-Bitcoin world, there are many facts pointing to this crypto-currency being one of the most revolutionary feats of economic and technological ingenuity, the amount of Monero in a determined period of time in history will always be limited to what was set on April 18, 2014 in the algorithm even though it will be mined forever at very low scale, what you can argue is that its usefulness in a healthy economy is yet to become reality.

[rdnkjdi]

even though it will be mined forever at very low scale

This is a problem - not a plus.  Those who want to own the world / get rich off a coin love it as distribution slows and restricts supply the value goes up.

The problem is - the value supporting the entire network goes down as supply lessens to drive value up.  It's like turning a pyramid on it's head - the % market cap to secure the coin constantly declines while the size of the market cap grows.  Still can't figure out why people brag about this like it's a good thing ...

[medusa13]

because in the long run, deflation will bring more doom and terror compared to slight inflation i guess, from a simply economical perspective.

but i agree somehow on the assumption with the possible negative effect on the network. how it will play out in cryptos where currency is created by miners and not by banks?

i dont know

[dnaleor]

even though it will be mined forever at very low scale

This is a problem - not a plus.  Those who want to own the world / get rich off a coin love it as distribution slows and restricts supply the value goes up.

The problem is - the value supporting the entire network goes down as supply lessens to drive value up.  It's like turning a pyramid on it's head - the % market cap to secure the coin constantly declines while the size of the market cap grows.  Still can't figure out why people brag about this like it's a good thing ...

agreed. I posted this on reddit a few days ago:

Well, actually I did some calculations a few months ago about a hypothetical "1COIN": a coin that has a fixed block reward from the start. In this example it's 1 COIN per minute. Looking back, I wish that XMR just had this emission schedule, but well, XMR is better than BTC, that's for sure: http://i.gyazo.com/c32d8304e2ec16950e60f8c859692e95.png
edit: We end of with an XMR inflation of about 0.5% at the end of the first 100 years of emission, 1COIn still has a 1% inflation by then. The inflation roughly halves for both of them in the next 100 years (XMR to 0.25%, 1COIN to 0.5%)

[smooth]

even though it will be mined forever at very low scale

This is a problem - not a plus.  Those who want to own the world / get rich off a coin love it as distribution slows and restricts supply the value goes up.

The problem is - the value supporting the entire network goes down as supply lessens to drive value up.  It's like turning a pyramid on it's head - the % market cap to secure the coin constantly declines while the size of the market cap grows.  Still can't figure out why people brag about this like it's a good thing ...

For one thing it is all but guaranteed to reach some equilibrium where the % of cap to secure the network is a constant. The reason being that lost coins will eventually stabilize over time at some percentage of the total coins but the total coins grows at a constant rate. So when those lines cross the non-lost supply and the percentage for mining are both constant. In fact even if the lost coins isn't a constant but varies slowly as usage changes, the lines as still destined to approach each other. (Think about the case where they are equal and then the rate of lost coins shifts up or down.)

Where and when that happens nobody can say but it will happen.

[iCEBREAKER]

even though it will be mined forever at very low scale

This is a problem - not a plus.  Those who want to own the world / get rich off a coin love it as distribution slows and restricts supply the value goes up.

The problem is - the value supporting the entire network goes down as supply lessens to drive value up.  It's like turning a pyramid on it's head - the % market cap to secure the coin constantly declines while the size of the market cap grows.  Still can't figure out why people brag about this like it's a good thing ...

For one thing it is all but guaranteed to reach some equilibrium where the % of cap to secure the network is a constant. The reason being that lost coins will eventually stabilize over time at some percentage of the total coins but the total coins grows at a constant rate. So when those lines cross the non-lost supply and the percentage for mining are both constant. In fact even if the lost coins isn't a constant but varies slowly as usage changes, the lines as still destined to approach each other. (Think about the case where they are equal and then the rate of lost coins shifts up or down.)

Where and when that happens nobody can say but it will happen.

Looks like rdnkjdi missed the long, involved debate in which maintaining nominal block subsidy was decided to be beneficial.

Question about perpetual tail-end emission:

If mainbody emission is 2^64 tacoshi, how are the extra tail-end units accounted for without breaking the architecture/modulo/coinbase thingy?

[smooth]

If mainbody emission is 2^64 tacoshi, how are the extra tail-end units accounted for without breaking the architecture/modulo/coinbase thingy?

Yes it is already accounted for in the code. Individual transactions won't be able to exceed 2^64 (and this is checked) without further changes but the total outstanding supply number is not used except to calculate the variable block rewards, which of course isn't needed once the rewards become fixed.

There may be changes needed in wallets to not use 64 bit math to calculate and display the total balance (once someone has a wallet containing >2^64 units, if that ever happens) but that is cosmetic not part of the protocol (balances don't exist at the protocol level only outputs).

[newb4now]

Just sayin

XMR: 0.00415444 BTC
XMR: 1 USD

I'm a bit shocked to see the strength post at this level.
I know many, me included, really saw .003 coming and perhaps holding but the push post that has been huge.

Seems like big buyers have really helped push us up, nothing new there. Is is synonymous with smart money?
The more I look into XMR the more that seems to be the case.

Scary to think what might (actually, what probably will) happen when BTC starts another run.

Methinks XMR might (and probably will) "rise [like a] chikun" (as was chanted in the btc-e trollbox) like LTC ran from $1.11 to $48.48 in fall of 2013.  This will likely accelerate as BTC finishes the bottoming pattern and begins its next rally to $3-$10k BTC/USD.  XMR will be a greater "chikun" than LTC especially once GUI arrives and it grows widely adopted & utilized.

How confident are you? As confident as you were in June 2011 when you were similarly bullish on BTC?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.msg169759#msg169759

Are you currently putting all your money into bitcoin?  If you say this, you show you believe it by your actions.  I am putting all my money into bitcoin - I see a possibility of $50-$100+ per coin this year.  Just think, once the "bankers" and hedge funds find out about this, we are going to the moon.  Once my bitcoins are $1,000+ I will be able to pay off my growing college loans and maybe get an apartment, and my first car

Great prediction and action in 2011.

Lets hope your XMR prediction comes true as well

One interesting thing about XMR is that it seems to have a relatively high percentage of BTC early adopters in the community including those who own few of any other alts rpietila.

It seems like the longer people have been around and the more educated they are the more they like Monero

No other anonymous currency in existence today has received as much attention from BTC core devs and early adopters. Probably because they realize the coinjoin based competition is not serious enough to warrant much attention

[TrueCryptonaire]

Just sayin

XMR: 0.00415444 BTC
XMR: 1 USD

I'm a bit shocked to see the strength post at this level.
I know many, me included, really saw .003 coming and perhaps holding but the push post that has been huge.

Seems like big buyers have really helped push us up, nothing new there. Is is synonymous with smart money?
The more I look into XMR the more that seems to be the case.

Scary to think what might (actually, what probably will) happen when BTC starts another run.

Methinks XMR might (and probably will) "rise [like a] chikun" (as was chanted in the btc-e trollbox) like LTC ran from $1.11 to $48.48 in fall of 2013.  This will likely accelerate as BTC finishes the bottoming pattern and begins its next rally to $3-$10k BTC/USD.  XMR will be a greater "chikun" than LTC especially once GUI arrives and it grows widely adopted & utilized.

How confident are you? As confident as you were in June 2011 when you were similarly bullish on BTC?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.msg169759#msg169759

Are you currently putting all your money into bitcoin?  If you say this, you show you believe it by your actions.  I am putting all my money into bitcoin - I see a possibility of $50-$100+ per coin this year.  Just think, once the "bankers" and hedge funds find out about this, we are going to the moon.  Once my bitcoins are $1,000+ I will be able to pay off my growing college loans and maybe get an apartment, and my first car

Great prediction and action in 2011.

Lets hope your XMR prediction comes true as well

One interesting thing about XMR is that it seems to have a relatively high percentage of BTC early adopters in the community including those who own few of any other alts rpietila.

It seems like the longer people have been around and the more educated they are the more they like Monero

No other anonymous currency in existence today has received as much attention from BTC core devs and early adopters. Probably because they realize the coinjoin based competition is not serious enough to warrant much attention

I couldn't resist the temptation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LxITlJplhw

[iCEBREAKER]

Methinks XMR might (and probably will) "rise [like a] chikun" (as was chanted in the btc-e trollbox) like LTC ran from $1.11 to $48.48 in fall of 2013.  This will likely accelerate as BTC finishes the bottoming pattern and begins its next rally to $3-$10k BTC/USD.  XMR will be a greater "chikun" than LTC especially once GUI arrives and it grows widely adopted & utilized.

How confident are you? As confident as you were in June 2011 when you were similarly bullish on BTC?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.msg169759#msg169759

Are you currently putting all your money into bitcoin?  If you say this, you show you believe it by your actions.  I am putting all my money into bitcoin - I see a possibility of $50-$100+ per coin this year.  Just think, once the "bankers" and hedge funds find out about this, we are going to the moon.  Once my bitcoins are $1,000+ I will be able to pay off my growing college loans and maybe get an apartment, and my first car

Great prediction and action in 2011.

Lets hope your XMR prediction comes true as well

One interesting thing about XMR is that it seems to have a relatively high percentage of BTC early adopters in the community including those who own few of any other alts rpietila.

It seems like the longer people have been around and the more educated they are the more they like Monero

No other anonymous currency in existence today has received as much attention from BTC core devs and early adopters. Probably because they realize the coinjoin based competition is not serious enough to warrant much attention

Nice find, and yes, good calls zhalox!  

Those of us around in 2011 have seen this movie before.  We recognize the smell of nascent fundamental disruption on the cusp of breaking into the mainstream.  We are positively giddy to have an unheard of second chance to scoop up trainloads of The Next Bitcoin^TM for under a dollar.  Absent a ride back to 2010 in the TARDIS, cheap XMR is the next best thing.  Perhaps even better...    

The deep background here is that most of us assumed mixing and other forms of obfuscation would suffice to anonymize Bitcoin and render it fungible (at the social level, of course all BTC are fungible in the protocol).

Upon learning this hope was a pipe dream, and chastising ourselves for being duped into accepting obscurity as a valid form of security, the race began for a 'dark' version of Bitcon.  Darkcoin benefited greatly in the fallout, despite it being a fraud at the implementation level and pure crap in the technical.

XMR was the breath of fresh air we'd been waiting for.  Finally, the next stage of Szaboshi's Master Plan To Free The Universe was here, now!  Yay.  The game was, once again, afoot (with Babylon on the defensive, and now more than ever at a profound, fundamental disadvantage as XMR enables defections previously impossible with BTC alone).

[smooth]

Writing in bitcointalk has nothing to do with marketing anymore.
Marketing is done outside of this forum.
Writing here can be considered as trolling and it is fun.

Well said. It doesn't matter that most of your posts are exactly what you described. In this case your post is insightful.

[hodlmybtc]

That was a nice prediction he made in 2011, his $1000 target came true after ~2.5 years, his entry was a bit messed up tho just after the big bubble to $32 at around $20.

Also his prediction of $50-$100 coins in 2011 was wrong probably because he didn't see the long bear market coming.

If he held all the way up to $1000, my hat is off to him.