All of this verbiage is relevant only if you started LONG time ago.
You can call it "verbiage" if you want. I was merely attempting to give you an explanation and to respond to your various points.
If you started 1 year ago and DCA ($100/wk), then $$ in btc are amazingly, 100% (or close to it) correlated with Gold and 90% correlated with stocks.
Check for yourself at your fav link.
https://dcabtc.com?sd=2019-09-25&sda=1_year&f=weekly&d=1_year&ac=10000&c=true
Of course, I already looked at the various timelines. The longer that you have been in bitcoin the BIGGER the disparities between bitcoin and the two other assets (gold and equities).
That is not saying anything different from what i said, or points that I was making.
The actual website does not really matter... it is just an easy peasy way of showing comparisons. I doubt that it really differs much from other websites (except for there is an ability to plug in dollar cost averaging investment information), it is just easy to reference.
Thereby, I pronounce btc "currently correlated"...until it is not.
You can live in a pie in the sky world too, and hope that you end up being correct.
The fact that it was not correlated in 2012-2019 is great for those who invested back then, including many here, but does nothing for the newcomers.
You are coming off as a bit of a wishful thinking goofball rather than someone who is really trying to account for actual facts.
These same claims of correlation had been made before, too. You can take other periods of time in which bitcoin had been performing somewhat flat, like in 2011, 2012 and 2015, 2016, and the same kinds of claims of correlation could have been made.. and sometimes they were... at least in 2015/2016... but I was not around in 2011/2012 and of course, Bitcoin was much smaller back then, too.
Maybe for newcomers it is just a better form of money, NOT a better investment vehicle.
For newcomers it is better to take a long investment horizon and build your investment, and 10 or 20 years, will have good chances of appreciating against other assets or other investments..
that better form of money nonsense largely died with the BIG blockers and those nonsense narratives, even though those narratives continue to exist somewhat in a less predominant form.
On an individual basis, of course, you can find people who think all kinds of nonsensical things... so there is that angle, too.,, You can proclaim "maybe people think" blah blah blah..,. but seems like nonsense. Maybe you think those things, and you are suggesting that other people think those same things, too?
However, if btc appreciate just 7% yearly from now on going forward, I would be largely content
Personally, I am already prepared for that... so no problema with me.... I was thinking at least 5.5% when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, and it largely has performed way above expectations, even though it took a bit of time (3 years-ish) for my first purchased coins to be profitable.
as long as it is limited to a 50% yearly draw-down, like a stock market and NOT 50% daily decline.
Who knows... ?
Seems likely that BIG drawdowns will continue to occur... and those 50% daily drops could happen too.., from time to time... Maybe you should just get out of bitcoin now so that you don't have to worry about 50% drawdowns.. you could get out right now, or maybe slowly between now and $17k.. If you don't want to sell all of it, just sell most of it, so that you are not so psychologically bothered.. Perhaps you are a bit over invested since you are suggesting that some of those possible considerable volatility events happenings are too much for you?
Ultimately, you need to find a comfortable balance for yourself.. could help you from overly worrying which seems to be skewing what you are saying in your most recent posts.
All of this verbiage is relevant only if you started LONG time ago.
If you stated 1 year ago and DCA ($100/wk), then $$ in btc are amazingly, 100% (or close to it) correlated with Gold and 90% correlated with stocks.
Check for yourself at your fav link.
https://dcabtc.com?sd=2019-09-25&sda=1_year&f=weekly&d=1_year&ac=10000&c=true
Thereby, I pronounce btc "currently correlated"...until it is not.
The fact that it was not correlated in 2012-2019 is great for those who invested back then, including many here, but does nothing for the newcomers.
Maybe for newcomers it is just a better form of money, NOT a better investment vehicle.
However, if btc appreciate just 7% yearly from now on going forward, I would be largely content as long as it is limited to a 50% yearly draw-down, like a stock market and NOT 50% daily decline.
i was indeed making a statement about presently occurring correlation/decoupling. JJG isn't wrong about the long term picture, you are correct regarding shorter terms
Look at 600w, the diplomat.
Poll
