Analysis

[phoenix1]

I really hope and think we'll break up.

What do you think though?

The upcoming silk road auction will likely cause at least short term pressure on the price.

How so?

Who in their right mind would pay market price or higher then turn around on an exchange and dump the price down further than where they bought in?

lol

Good question, unless they wanted them all, which we already know someone did not ...
And if not putting in a knock-out bid  for all of them who in their right mind would pay above current market price for blocks of 2 or 3k ?

[Tzupy]

Since oda.krell posted a bullish scenario that doesn't make sense to me, I decided to post how a bullish scenario should look IMO.

Remember this? It has been invalidated. Now the bullish scenario is to test support at 275$ on huge volume and bounce for good.

[masterluc]

Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.

[HorseinHole]

So sub-200 was not a typo but instead a clear prediction of the coming trend.

[sumantso]

Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.

Good good, got my money ready

Any estimate of target? Sub $200 was a typo, right?

[pinky]

Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.

Good good, got my money ready

Any estimate of target? Sub $200 was a typo, right?

Nobody knows, depends on a level of panic, but below 200 is not impossible.

[mymenace]

Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.

Good good, got my money ready

Any estimate of target? Sub $200 was a typo, right?

Nobody knows, depends on a level of panic, but below 200 is not impossible.

the more bears who yell sell the more the price will rise

[lunarboy]

Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.

Good good, got my money ready

Any estimate of target? Sub $200 was a typo, right?

Nobody knows, depends on a level of panic, but below 200 is not impossible.

The double whammy of paypal and microsoft will have sparked enough new big capital interest, to make me assume we've already seen the bottom this year.

[Coinshot]

Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.

Good good, got my money ready

Any estimate of target? Sub $200 was a typo, right?

Nobody knows, depends on a level of panic, but below 200 is not impossible.

The double whammy of paypal and microsoft will have sparked enough new big capital interest, to make me assume we've already seen the bottom this year.

It feels like each new positive news is not having enough effect. The downwards pressure over the longer term is quite high.

[Tzupy]

While the waves are poorly defined, my most probable scenario for the near future is a repeat of the August 11 - 17 crash.
Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August, I used 12h for the old chart and 6h for the current chart.
To confirm this, 6h MACD divergence and 6h PSAR should turn bearish.





PS. This also supports the bearish scenario.



PS2. 6h PSAR just flipped. 6hMACD divergence still positive (barely).

[Wary]

Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August

Thanks for the analysis. I'm curious, how do you measure market speed changes? Given it's fractal nature, it seems to be non-trivial task.

[Tzupy]

Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August

Thanks for the analysis. I'm curious, how do you measure market speed changes? Given it's fractal nature, it seems to be non-trivial task.

It sure was confusing for the last weeks, but it seems to get clearer. I measure time elapsed between peaks and bottoms of the sub-sub-waves or even sub-sub-sub-waves (if recognizable).
If the speed stays twice as fast as June - August - 6th October, then THE bottom could be reached in January instead of February as I guesstimated some time ago.

[Wary]

Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August

Thanks for the analysis. I'm curious, how do you measure market speed changes? Given it's fractal nature, it seems to be non-trivial task.

It sure was confusing for the last weeks, but it seems to get clearer. I measure time elapsed between peaks and bottoms of the sub-sub-waves or even sub-sub-sub-waves (if recognizable).
If the speed stays twice as fast as June - August - 6th October, then THE bottom could be reached in January instead of February as I guesstimated some time ago.

Thanks.

[sniveling]

Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.

Does this mean you think we will be down to 200 by about new years day?

[grappa_barricata]

Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August

Thanks for the analysis. I'm curious, how do you measure market speed changes? Given it's fractal nature, it seems to be non-trivial task.

Good question. How can that be measured, @Tzupy? I'll love a metric for that. Are you using volume alone? Or are you using the classical volatility metric?

[Tzupy]

Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August

Thanks for the analysis. I'm curious, how do you measure market speed changes? Given it's fractal nature, it seems to be non-trivial task.

Good question. How can that be measured, @Tzupy? I'll love a metric for that. Are you using volume alone? Or are you using the classical volatility metric?

Time elapsed between peaks and bottoms in June - August (please excuse small counting errors) compared with current market:

June 1st to June 25th, so 24 days. From 680$ to 557$.
November 13th to November 21st, 8 days. From 454$ to 342$. This was about thrice as fast.

June 25th to July 3rd, so 9 days. From 557$ to 660$.
November 21st to November 25th, so 4 days. From 342$ to 395$. This slowed down to about twice as fast.

July 3rd to August 1st, so 28 days. From 660$ to 557$.
November 25th to December 11th, so 16 days. From 395$ to 340$. This was also about twice as fast.

[grappa_barricata]

Time elapsed between peaks and bottoms in June - August (please excuse small counting errors) compared with current market:

June 1st to June 25th, so 24 days. From 680$ to 557$.
November 13th to November 21st, 8 days. From 454$ to 342$. This was about thrice as fast.

June 25th to July 3rd, so 9 days. From 557$ to 660$.
November 21st to November 25th, so 4 days. From 342$ to 395$. This slowed down to about twice as fast.

July 3rd to August 1st, so 28 days. From 660$ to 557$.
November 25th to December 11th, so 16 days. From 395$ to 340$. This was also about twice as fast.

Thank you, very interesting.

[Hen0xyd]

Triple bottom @322 ?

Daily chart, from Bitstamp :

[sniveling]

No, it just went down to  319.6

[Bassica]

Master Luc, I summon thou