Devcoin

[jasinlee]

I am in florida, but we are all over the place. I often have meetings with people in spain or other countries so I keep odd hours.

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[Unthinkingbit]

..
When does round 24 end as far as posting articles, marketing links, etc?

Block 93,300.

Edit: earlier I wrote 95,300, but that was wrong. The correct number is 93,300, 4,000(round - 1) + 1,300.

Kinda odd the bitcoin inventors/founders are billionaires and still no pictures, no interviews, no real life nothing.

It makes sense to be anonymous when you're doing anything in competition with banks. For example, Michael Burry, infamous for his 'Big Short' into the subprime crash, later asked a broad swath of politicians, economists, and professional 'seers' why they didn't see 'It' coming? Soon after asking that uncomfortable question, he got multiple IRS audits:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-16/what-happens-when-you-ask-too-many-or-wrong-questions

[Vlad2Vlad]

to:  MarkM or any seriously good Programmer

MarkM, you said you were hired to code for devcoin.  To me this means you've got to be good otherwise every first year programming student would be putting out their own currency right now.

so my question is this.  Since I know very little about programming ( I only took 1 computer class in college) I cannot grasp how difficult it is to create and launch a new currency is.

for example I have a good idea that it's very very hard even with billions of dollars to put out a competing and new operating system.  It takes a true genius and it happens once per generation which is why gates bought DOS and in 4 decades there's nothing really new except maybe now android (and the variations of Linux).

With each new industry once demand spikes it creates obscene profits which brings in a lot of new competition out of which most go out of business and then pfofit normalize.  this happened in the auto industry where at one point there were over 100 auto manufacturers and the dot com boom where thousands of dot com companies came, made huge salaries and went under and once a couple more coins go boom and demand really spikes and the currently supply won't bre enough that will bring in lots of new talent to try and cash in on this demand for digital coins.

so my question is, how difficult is it?  FAcebook wasn't hard to create it was just a good idea at the right time so to me that wasn't a genius programmer just a very good programmer at the right time with the right idea.

so by comparison, how difficult is it for a very good programmer or does it take 3 or 30 to create a new currency like a bitcoin and then to also launch it? Can one good programmer do it out of his garage in  a few months and also launch it with the hopes it will take off or is that impossible?  I have no idea how many lines of code we're talking about, so the workload itself - is it simple or massive, and then is there any difficulty in the actual creation of a new currency or is that also an easy thing to copy?  and the launching of a new currency - do you just announce it on some blogs and release the code or blocks into the wild and hope you get lucky or is there a lot of programming and work to do there?

Again, I'm not asking what it takes to get a successful currency, that's very difficult cause it has to do with factors you cannot predict nor control, I'm just referring to the actual creation of a new currency and launching of it.  that gives me a good idea as to the number of new currencies to expect on the market as soon as awareness goes up as a result of some unexpected event.

thanks for the feedback.

regards,

vlad

[Vlad2Vlad]

..
When does round 24 end as far as posting articles, marketing links, etc?

Block 95,300.

Kinda odd the bitcoin inventors/founders are billionaires and still no pictures, no interviews, no real life nothing.

It makes sense to be anonymous when you're doing anything in competition with banks. For example, Michael Burry, infamous for his 'Big Short' into the subprime crash, later asked a broad swath of politicians, economists, and professional 'seers' why they didn't see 'It' coming? Soon after asking that uncomfortable question, he got multiple IRS audits:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-16/what-happens-when-you-ask-too-many-or-wrong-questions

Oh, it's a fact the IRS is used as a political tool.  Most if not all conservative talk show hosts get audited by the IRS to the point of harassment.

But let's be real.  The IRS is gonna find you cause you gotta pay taxes, and they have your names and any bank with even a small budget will find you so you're only hiding from the masses not the big guys like banks and the govt.

but if this digital coup was a govt plan then it makes sense to be anonymous which would then be very easy to predict what will happen next.  This is partly why I think my predictions will come true with good accuracy cause the banks and the govt want digital money to come true but it will never happen unless you, me and everyone on earth first embrace the idea. 

Imagine these guys sitting around a table and asking each other:  How in the world are we gonna get the masses to accept a virtual currency, something invisible for real hard cash in their hands?  How are we gonna get the masses to give up on the freedom that comes with hard money as opposed to a digital one?  The obvious answer that pops to my mind is:  Well, we'll give it away.  In the end it won't matter as we'll adjust the real value and so what if a few hundred or a few thousand new millionaires are made in the beginning?  We'll give it away, make it so anyone can get it for free and create such a mass frenzy that people will go crazy for virtual money so much so that they'll see paper money as worthless, which is actually is.

and if I'm right they're gonna create a massive media blitz to pump these currencies to the sky and get everyone to want it and love it.

the banks have invested billions in partnerships with each other and with tech giants like google, apple and Microsoft to get NFC to be mass accepted.  At one point they were giving the terminals for free to retail stores to get the network ready and most smartphones now are NFC ready and apple will put the final nail in the coffin with the next ipohne which will also have biometric fingerprint scanner so people will feel safe putting their money.

So yes, visa, mastercard, CITI and all the banks formed various partnerships because they all want a piece of the easy money that comes from everytime you swipe your NFC phone but lets face it, digital currency is the best way to go for all of them for many reasons, some of which I outlined in one of my papers.

For banks it's a dream cause you'll never hide your money from them again and as well as the govt.  No more tax evasion or overseas accounts.  they can take their money out with their keyboard from anywhere.  You'll never pay anyone ever again without paying taxes so the $2 trillion dollar black markets are gone overnight.

the benefits to banks and govt are endless and retailers also have a lot to gain.  and in some ways it's good for society but it will cost us a lot in privacy loss and freedom loss as the system can be abused by any oppressive govt.  and once everyone accepts digital cash on their phones the next step is something more permanenet and impossible to lose, you can't lose your head.  Microchips from companies like digital angel have been ready for years to store all your medical and financial data.  It even warns you that you may be getting sick if your temperature spikes.

Like it or not that's where it's all going and if i'm right bitcoin was just the dry run by the govt to see what it takes and how people react and now they're getting ready for the next one which will be much bigger.  and this is the one that I think will bring in the masses as awareness will spike like crazy and everyone will want to get rich overnight but there's only gonna be a few currencies to buy so they'll all rush to get their share. 

And if I'm right this will all start happeing, in a big way in the next 6-12 months cause it's gonna become painfully apparent the dollar (and euro) is in serious trouble no more than 2 years from now.  So if you can get the masses to love these new digital currencies in the next 1-2 years then it will be easy to get them to switch to a new currency.  Not because the dollar is worthless, no, because it's easier and safer to have a digital currency.

you think that's crazy?  Think how many people, who know about bitcions today would refuse to turn in their entire dollar bank account for a 1 to 1 swap?  or even a 1/10th to 1 dollar swap.  The govt doesn't care cause it's not real.  Just like it looked like a great deal when they gave people paper money in 1933 in exchange for their all their gold as a new law was passed making owning gold illegal so now they'll make it look like a sweet deal to get some new popular digital money for you dollar cause they know once you accept it there's no going back and unlike the dollar where they have to print it and transport it, with digital money they'll dilute your new money into nothing in 5 seconds with one push of a button.

So these anynymous billionaires aren't hiding from the banks or the govt, they are the govt and phase 2 is coming soon.  If you expect it then you can profit greatly from it, don't ell your currencies at the beginning of the craze even though it's gonna look like a great deal - for the masses to accept toy video game money for their real money the govt along with the banks and the media will have to create a foaming at the mouth craze for digital coins.  I'm so certain about this I just can't prove it but I'm putting my money where my money is.  This is part of the hope and change americans voted for and in a couple years they won't believe what's really happened.  buy now and hold on tight.

good luck.

regards,

vlad

[Vlad2Vlad]

Ok, I'm done chatting, I have to get some work done.  Although it's way more fun to talk about interesting things I've gotta earn some coins since there's only so many I can buy given my very limited unemployed budget.   And although devcoin is my number one pick to be the next big one or one of the very big ones, I have to cover my basis and so some of my budget goes toward buying a few other currencies like IXcoin.  I have to stop checking this thread cause every time I do there's something else I have to ask or say.  So good night to everyone and I'll check your responses to my questions tomorrow when I wake up.

Good luck to everyone!

regards,

Vlad

[Vlad2Vlad]

I am in florida, but we are all over the place. I often have meetings with people in spain or other countries so I keep odd hours.

Man, I said I was gonna stop posting but then I saw your post.

what meetings?  regarding digital currencies?  devcoins?  Sounds interesting.  What's the goal or scope of these meetings?  Are you finding that in Europe the masses are just as clueless so far as far as awareness goes as in the US?  I think it's gonna first blow up here and then spread to Europe so I expect Europeans to actually know less than americans right now.  But I'd be curious to find out what percentage of them really know and not just read or heard something and what they're planning to do or what they're doing in response as a reaction to bitcoin and what will soon be a super bitcoin 2.0.

My guess or estimate is that less than 1% of Americans know about digital currency to the point of answering questions.  So not just, oh yeah, I read or heard something about a coin or bitcoin.  that's not awareness.  Awareness is knowing something material about the subject and as far as that goes I think it's way down, maybe even one-tenth of 1%.  imagine a 100 fold jump in awareness in a country like America where americans from middle class and up are very stock market savvy and most easily have a couple grand for a speculative investment.  if I'm right then a 100 fold jump in awareness only puts us at 10% and that's where I think the inflection point is where these coins go from a fad to a must have and the next great market I can't believe it was there all along and I missed it.  lol....

Ok, I really gotta turn in a decent sized paper tonight and it's already almost 3am.  Man.....these threads are a time killer and I'm only level Jr.  You probably need like 50 hours for the next level.  that or 5 bitcoins and I don't even have 5 litecoins.  I mined for nearly 2 days straight with a dual 7850 GPU $1700 rig and all I got was 1/2 of a litecoin.  lol.

no way man, devcoin and their way of letting everyone earn something is the way to go.  I wouldn't be surprised if my conspiracy theory was correct if they hand picked devcoin as their currency for the masses.  It simply has all the attributes which attract the masses, at least at first, and the fact there's already a few billion coins is actually a good thing.  I mean, why start a new coin when you can just hijack an existing one with all the goods built in including the large user base and the good reputation. 

[Vlad2Vlad]

I just checked and one of my orders went through.  I was able to add to my devcoin position which I bought about 10 days ago at .00041.  I thought I got an unreal deal back then but I just added just over 1 million more devcoin coins for nearly half that, .00022.  And that's high, the next guy is bidding a ridiculous 10 times less at .00004000.  There's no way it will go that low, at least I hope not.  So it looks like I'll be earning way less than I expected for writing for round 24 for but for me the dollar value doesn't matter, just the number of coins, as I don't plan to sell until my theory is proved one way or another which could take up to 1 year although I think we'll see something serious enough to at least confirm it in the next 60 days 

So maybe this is a blessing in disquise, since most writers etc probably earn coins to immediately sell them then maybe there will be less people competing for round 24.


can anybody who's been here longer then a few week tell me if devcoin tends to drop this time of month when people get millions of coins from the previous round, dump them, taking the price lower temporarily, and then the price goes back up in the next week or two cause the price has dropped nearly 50% in less than 10 days since I first bought coins which is a bit odd given there's been nothing but positive developments so my guess is that we're seeing downward pressure from individuals and developers who depend on the income from these coins so they have no choice but to sell at any market price they can get.  maybe that's why some guys is sitting at a ridiculously low price, hoping he can poach nearly free shares from desperate sellers.   I bid .00022 earlier today figuring I'd have to get the shares when sellers looked at my bid compared to the next best one which was highway robbery.  .0000400, that's the shameless bid of the week.

 lol, I'd almost feel bad if I got coins at that price considering lots of people get these coins as a benefit to society.  I really do hope I'm right and devcoin will be the next big winner if not one of them, I can't think of another coin which would directly and indirectly reward and help so many individuals.....and of course, the video game players who borrowed billions of coins.  lol, what would happen to those guys if they have say 5 million devcoins in their video game world?  That's a new one for the civil courts.

I'm starting to think I'm not gonna get much done in way of real work tonight.  And the weekend is here so there goes 2 more days.  Good think block 95000 is probably 3 weeks away.

If devcoin goes any lower than .00022 I'm gonna start selling things in my house to buy more coins.  Ha!  Things I don't need of course.....like my hair....summer is here and it's too hot anyway.  lol

[markm]

The major financial entities in the game use the currencies more as units of account than as limited supply commodities.

There are tables at http://galaxies.mygamesonline.org/digitalisassets.html where you can look up the conversion rates, so they basically do not care which currency you pay your debt in, they just look up the conversion rate of the one it is denominated in to the one you are paying in. The tables are historic, so that they can even bring their accounts up to date later. like sit down periodically and look up for each shipment of deuterium that came in what the going rate for deuterium was that day, how that converted that day into the currency the debt it was to be applied against was denominated, round it to whole coins because the Digitalis Open Transactions server does all assets in whole integers, and send off balancing payments to the appropriate other entities.

Thus really all that denominating one's debt in devcoins instead of, for example, General Mining Corp scrip or General Retirement Funds scrip, is let you avoid the massive deflation GMC and GRF went through, because devcoins have not shot up in value nearly as massively as those other currencies did. People whose debt is still denominated in GMC and GRF, which is what the original startup loans were in, would be screwed totally from the massive deflation, but, the inhabited planets simply cannot afford to let the plan fail, they need to get massive fleets of deathstars set up in distant galaxies to provide a defensive shield around the home galaxies.

The interest rates were already halved a couple of times and various other measures were taken, but in general over the long haul the whole thing is pretty much a sure thing it just is going to take a lot of years. If they fail to get a defensive perimeter set up all the worlds will be attacked by swarms of deathstars from even-more-distant galaxies eventually, their only chance is to get out there with massive force before some enemy appears out there in massive force. Once those mining corps have their jumpgate(s) built to reach the farther galaxies and set up production facilities in the farther galaxies they will be able to sell off at profit to governments or sell deathstars to the united home-galaxies defense initiative or whatever. It is just going to take a long time to actually get out there.

-MarkM-

[markm]

I just checked and one of my orders went through.  I was able to add to my devcoin position which I bought about 10 days ago at .00041.  I thought I got an unreal deal back then but I just added just over 1 million more devcoin coins for nearly half that, .00022.  And that's high, the next guy is bidding a ridiculous 10 times less at .00004000.  There's no way it will go that low, at least I hope not.  So it looks like I'll be earning way less than I expected for writing for round 24 for but for me the dollar value doesn't matter, just the number of coins, as I don't plan to sell until my theory is proved one way or another which could take up to 1 year although I think we'll see something serious enough to at least confirm it in the next 60 days  

What price lists are you looking at? The one I use - pretty much the only one I look at at all really - is https://vircurex.com/orders?alt=dvc&base=btc but the numbers you mention don't seem to be from there?

People's coins come in all through the round, its not lump sum payments, it goes out as it is mined.

Back to the debt a moment: the primary way of paying it off is by shipping "deuterium" to depots. The deuterium price lists show how many devcoins or whatever else the deuterium is worth, which is then applied against the debt. So in the long term they don't need any currency to pay their debts, they can just keep shipping ever-larger quantities of "deuterium".

They can also ship "crystal" and "metal" though those resources are not as valuable; they can be used to build fleets but not to fuel fleets, and fuel is a major strategic resource since if you can keep your fleet in flight in those types of games it is invulnerable, since attacks are only implemented as attacks upon planets or moons, which involve destroying the "defending" fleet in the process. So if your fleet can always fly away, leaving the planet or moon to be looted or whatever, you can keep increasing the size of your fleet until no planet or moon's defenses, unaided by a defending fleet, can possibly resist it, and if your total production capacity is largest you can ultimately have the largest fleet and crush all opposing fleets. Which the civilised worlds aim to do to prevent any enemy fleets coming to any galaxy anywhere near the home galaxies.

-MarkM-

[Vlad2Vlad]

MarkM, I use vircurex and all day long and even yesterday the big on dvc was .0000400.  Maybe you're looking at the ask.  or maybe you're looking at euros. 

How low has devcoin been in the last 6 months?  Has anybody else been here that long to remember?  I'm just curious to get an idea of how low It can go....well, besides zero, I suppose anything can go to zero. I read it was around $10 per coin when it first came out.  wow.  but I'm sure at that time (devcoin is what, 2 years old?) there were many less coins, but still, $10 per coin back then for a virtual coin, if true, is incredible.

[Vlad2Vlad]

Today I have transferred 10k DVC to Ripple using what Emfox made available:
 http://ripple.d.evco.in/

Not so immediate as I thought, but it works!

Well done, Emfox.

PS It really look strange a deposit of DVC in Ripple wallet.

ripple wallet?  can you store multiple types of coins in that?  why is that better than the devcoin wallet on devtome or vircurex.  well, besides the fact vircurex has been hacked twice in 2 months.  I'm hoping sooon sooooooon there's gonna be an easy wallet that will hold everything.  I think these NFC phones have that ability and the new iphone should almost certainly have Authentic's biometric logon credentials and almost certainly also have NFC and with those things it would be pretty easy for a bright programmer to write a simply or not so simply app that allows you to store your banking info, and all your various coins and with some encryption like what coinbase uses and with biometrics it would be easier to rob your house in broad daylight than steal your coins.

Please tell me more about this ripple wallet and why it's better and as soon as anyone hears of any type of good universal wallet please scream it out.  thanks

[Vlad2Vlad]

MarkM,

login to vircurex and go to the box on the right for devcoin and then click on the dvc/USD and then scroll all the way to the bottom and you'll see all the recent bids, asks and also a lot of the recent sales and at what price they sold and what volume.  Looks like someone got lucky and bought even cheaper than me, 499,000 coins at .00020.   the guy bidding .0000400 is still there but now there's a big ahead of him for .00020 but it's for a small amount like 20,000 coins.

I'm really surprised to see the biggest, busiest coin exchange and with such a liquid coin like devcoin to see such low volumes in both the bid and asks and total sales.

not many people actually buy these coins.  I'm used to watching stocks and even a penny stock sees massive volume everyday and the more shares they have out the bigger the volumes, usually.  with devcoin, cause it's so cheap right now and cause they have so many coins out, i'm guessing 4 to 5 billion, I would expect to see at least 20 million coins trading hands on a daily basis.  on a dollar value that's nothing, any guy with a minimum wage job can mess with the prices by playing with the bid or walking the price up using incremental bids like market makers do with stocks to drop the price and take out the shares sitting below key price targets with stop loss orders. 

man, If I had a few K to mess with and of course sitting on a bunch of devcoins I'd try to manipulate the price to see how high I can take it cause the liquidity looks so fragile that I think any sudden spike in demand, even just something like $50,000 would cause a huge jump in the price because there's no market makers on these exchanges holding a constant supply and there's just not enough supply at any given point in time from the looks of it.

Man, if wallsreet ever gets involved or a stock trader with some cash you're gonna see fire works.  I think it's only a matter of time.  Oh please, just give me enough time to earn one, maybe two more rounds of shares and to buy at least 10 more million on the open market given the price is so cheap.  When you're holding that many shares or coins of something the price just has to hiccup and you're rich.  well, just the poor mechanics of a nascent unprepared market and exchange will play a key role in taking digital coin prices much higher when demand picks up.  No wonder bitcoin went to $266 so fast and no wonder namecoin went up 1,000 fold in like 30 or 40 days, beating any record by even the most pumped up bubble stock ever....only the tulip bubble maybe beat namecoin and this is with a joke of awareness so far.  wait for the real deal to happen soon. 

I can't wait - just from a historic standpoint, it's gonna be ridiculous and amazing to watch.  I hope it happens before bankers get in on it (ie VC's and coinbase) cause they'll add market makers and a supply storage to handle any sudden spikes in demand or maybe even add circuit breakers like halting trading.   We don't want that modern stuff, we want 1929 in reverse, we want dope and dopey trying to match bid and ask orders when all hell is breaking loose and supply can't be found anywhere so people will then get desperate thinking there's no more coins and they've missed the boat and greed will kick in and the asks will fly like crazy.  lol....what a wonder to watch if that should ever unravel in such a way.

[weisoq]

Vlad, markm's looking at DVC/BTC you're looking at DVC/USD. While (imo) it is correct to look at the value vs $ or £ or whatever (and i see a lot of trends/trades that make little sense when viewed against fiat rather than btc) most trade vs BTC. For example, right now the bid/offer in DVC/BTC translates to 0.00019/0.000212 in dollar terms, ignoring transaction fees. For now there's not much liquidity in trading most alts vs dollars so you'll be lucky to get decent prices, in fact this is one of the current barriers to better alt take-up.

[Vlad2Vlad]

someone else mentioned something about a ripple wallet for devcoins.

I just opened a ripple account (looks like another smooth coinbase like beta future exchange site, the smart money is seeing something here) and they also gave me 1 wallet number which starts with r which I'm guessing is for ripple.

what I wanna know is can I use (finally) this 1 wallet number for all my various coins?  can I use it to receive coins?  I guess I can send myself some devcoins to see if it works. 

[Vlad2Vlad]

someone else mentioned something about a ripple wallet for devcoins.

I just opened a ripple account (looks like another smooth coinbase like beta future exchange site, the smart money is seeing something here) and they also gave me 1 wallet number which starts with r which I'm guessing is for ripple.

what I wanna know is can I use (finally) this 1 wallet number for all my various coins?  can I use it to receive coins?  I guess I can send myself some devcoins to see if it works. 

that's awesome.  I just now opened a ripple account.  how did you get the xrp coins?  what's their value, cause I've never heard of them. TIA

[Vlad2Vlad]

Vlad, markm's looking at DVC/BTC you're looking at DVC/USD. While (imo) it is correct to look at the value vs $ or £ or whatever (and i see a lot of trends/trades that make little sense when viewed against fiat rather than btc) most trade vs BTC. For example, right now the bid/offer in DVC/BTC translates to 0.00019/0.000212 in dollar terms, ignoring transaction fees. For now there's not much liquidity in trading most alts vs dollars so you'll be lucky to get decent prices, in fact this is one of the current barriers to better alt take-up.

that's confusing me a bit.  are you saying it's cheaper to buy devcoins in dollars versus say BTC?  riskless arbitrage would fix that problem in a matter of minutes if that was the case but then again who's looking for arbitrage opportunities on these illiquid sites so early on. 

I don't have any BTC so I simply buy any of the coins I want the old fashioned way like my grandparents used to do, using dollars.  oh no, it has already started.

[Vlad2Vlad]

and who's emfox, how did you get 10,000 dvc from them?  I opened a ripple account 15 minutes ago but for some weird reason it still say offline in black in the upper right hand side.

but i'm online so I don't know what's up.  I'm typing on a laptop and the ripple account is opened on an ipad so maybe that's the issue.  but compared to vircurex these new exchange sites popping up, first coinbase and now ripple are simply light years ahead.  I feel bad cause vircurex was there first but it looks like the guys with millions want their own sandbox(es).  and this is only the beginning.

You know what they say - follow the smart money.  well, for once I've made the right moves before the smart money and boy does it feel good.  these guys with billions didn't see it coming and only now and only a few are strting to get the picture and theyre putting millions to work.  and soon, I hope, they'll put those millions into things like 1 super secure wallet app and super secure exchange site with every coin out there for sale or trade and an easy to use mining program for free or for a small fee.  the market is there so hopefully these guys will move swiftly.

[Vlad2Vlad]

Bitstamp.net

what?

I just saw your post where you transferred 10K DVC into ripple.  that's awesome, I'm gonna try to transfer like 50 coins from my home computer to see if it works.  it would be great to have such better sites with secure wallets to help spread the risk.  I hate having most of my coins in one exchange or even at home.  I'd rather have them with 5 different exchanges and the rest on a cold drive.

I still don't get what you're saying about bitstamp.net.  are you talking about people buying bitstamps and then using that to buy devcoins?  I had to buy voucherX(USD) to be able to buy devcoins.  it sucks, cauee it's $60 just in wiring fees.  That's a rippoff when sites like coinbase hook up your checking account instantly.   man I can't wait for them to start trading devcoins and the rest.

[Vlad2Vlad]

I just tried to transfer 100 devcoins from vircures to the ripple address (starting with r) and it said invalid devcoin address so I don't know how you were able to transfer to ripple.

I tried to transfer from my home computer but the client I have installed which I installed from devtome just 10 days ago doesn't even have an option to send coins.  so how exactly do I sell the coins from this computer using this wallet in the future?  Am I just too tired cause I looked twice and there's only receive and sent, as in past tense.  there's no option or tab for send.  and I checked the 2 dropdown menus and there's no send option.  I would really like to put some of my coins in ripple kind of as a spread risk safe keeping thing.

[Vlad2Vlad]

Nice point of you
Not to increase the security, but spread the risk. It's true. Everything is at your own risk. Only the time will tell who is gonna be the next bitcoin, even if I am afraid to know already the answer.

What's you guess?  Just instinctive feeling?  Sometimes that instinct knows more than a PhD.  Thanks for sharing. 

In my opinion I feel very strongly about Namecoin and Devcoin but I honestly don't know why and I felt like this the first 5 minutes after I read up on bitcoin and my feeling hasn't changed although I feel stronger about devcoin now than I did even at first.

which coin is your first pick and do you know why?  what about 2nd pick?  TIA