[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

What would you sell a new friend then?

Nothing, that's an easy way to make a New Friend into a New enemy. I do tell old friends about opportunities though.

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[DaveyJones]

What would you sell a new friend then?

Nothing, that's an easy way to make a New Friend into a New enemy. I do tell old friends about opportunities though.

This! Selling is the wrong word though... IMO you can tell them what your doing with some fascination... but thats it... if they are really interested they will research themself or bugger you...

It´s a difference if you try to sell sth or if there is genuine interest.

[luigi1111]

The pyramid structure is the only way something can be made valuable in general.
Therefore I am fascinated on pyramid schemes (not scams but honest pyramid schemes).
Pyramid structure means, there is a limited amount of assets and the value of the owner's slice increase when more people come in.
Let's consider gold bullion as an example: there is limited amount of gold in existence. When you have a "significiant slice" of world's gold supply (it is not that large since gold in existence is surprisingly scarce), you want others to buy also gold driving the purchasing power of your gold higher and thus you are climbimg in the pyramid to higher levels.
The same analogy applies to stocks, real estates, silver, pink diamonds, old cars, fiat money, you name it - anything valuable.

A pyramid scheme is an unsustainable business model that involves promising participants payment or services, primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme, rather than supplying any real investment or sale of products or services to the public.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The pyramid structure is the only way something can be made valuable in general.
Therefore I am fascinated on pyramid schemes (not scams but honest pyramid schemes).
Pyramid structure means, there is a limited amount of assets and the value of the owner's slice increase when more people come in.
Let's consider gold bullion as an example: there is limited amount of gold in existence. When you have a "significiant slice" of world's gold supply (it is not that large since gold in existence is surprisingly scarce), you want others to buy also gold driving the purchasing power of your gold higher and thus you are climbimg in the pyramid to higher levels.
The same analogy applies to stocks, real estates, silver, pink diamonds, old cars, fiat money, you name it - anything valuable.

A pyramid scheme is an unsustainable business model that involves promising participants payment or services, primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme, rather than supplying any real investment or sale of products or services to the public.

Thank you for your post.
In my opinion there are two types of pyramid schemes.
1) Legitimate pyramid schemes
2) Illegitimate pyramid schemes.

The difference is basically the fact that the legit one has a real product/service etc like Monero has. Monero is similar type of pyramid scheme as any real investment has.

The illegitimate one on the contrary is only a game, like ponzi where the lowest part brings the cash, the second level from the bottom gets a slice of the cash and forwards it to higher levels who on their behalf take their share until the top who gets the share of all the incomes.

[cAPSLOCK]

@rpietila

what is your opinion about the price for 1 xmr in about 2-3 Years and the same for DRK?

Thank´s for your answer

"My opinion" can only be defined as "my estimate of the probabilities of various scenarios", and Expected Value can be calculated out of it. The problem with this approach is similar to someone asking a poker player: "What is your opinion, do you win this round?" Poker is not played out of opinion, but out of rigorous mathematical probabilities, coupled with psychology concerning the read of the opponent. Predicting the prices of Crypto is even harder since there are no rigorous probabilities that all would agree.

That said, I give about 50% chance that XMR will totally fail (be valued essentially at zero) in 2-3 years. The other 50% would be about:
- 10% valued at the same as now
- 10% valued at $1
- 10% valued at $2-5
- 10% valued at ~$10
- 10% valued at much more.

I cannot really give estimate on DRK. It currently has a higher marketcap than XMR but I haven't invested anything in it. I am not against premine but the way DRK is presenting theirs is unethical to my standards.

Are you sure the possibility of Monero`s death is as high as 50%?  In which case Monero can die?

In my humble opinion: unfortunately monero's chance of "death" is much higher than 50% with "death" defined as abandoned, superseded, broken, or otherwise rendered virtually valueless.

[cAPSLOCK]

I'm interested in monero but seeing you talk about "a considerable amount of time can be spent per 'recruit'" sets some red flags.
You really should try to make it sound less like a pyramid sheme because your whole post is drenched in a pyramid flavour.

Every coin (as well as penny stock etc) produces some with this sort of attitude.  Let the evangelists be evangelists.  Examine the platform for what it is and does.  Assign appropriate weight to the value of the community, and consider voices like that one to represent part, not all, of the community.  And then make a decision to become involved, code, invest, speculate, etc.

That is a more balanced way to look at this rather than making decisions based on single outliers.

I'd say this is true for most decisions.

[kazuki49]

I only know rpietila from bitcoin talk but he seems like an intelligent and benevolent person from what I can see.  
  
A good thing since if he keeps the faith he will likely end up as one of the richest men in history.  
  
I wish I had more resources to purchase more Monero than I do, but even one Monero will make one fairly wealthy if this project goes as it I believe it will.

Risto is the guy quoted in this article about how concentrated BTC hodlings are.

His posts were crucial in my XMR entering last year, later the discussion about the emission and the decision to keep it solidified my faith in this project

[smooth]

@rpietila

what is your opinion about the price for 1 xmr in about 2-3 Years and the same for DRK?

Thank´s for your answer

"My opinion" can only be defined as "my estimate of the probabilities of various scenarios", and Expected Value can be calculated out of it. The problem with this approach is similar to someone asking a poker player: "What is your opinion, do you win this round?" Poker is not played out of opinion, but out of rigorous mathematical probabilities, coupled with psychology concerning the read of the opponent. Predicting the prices of Crypto is even harder since there are no rigorous probabilities that all would agree.

That said, I give about 50% chance that XMR will totally fail (be valued essentially at zero) in 2-3 years. The other 50% would be about:
- 10% valued at the same as now
- 10% valued at $1
- 10% valued at $2-5
- 10% valued at ~$10
- 10% valued at much more.

I cannot really give estimate on DRK. It currently has a higher marketcap than XMR but I haven't invested anything in it. I am not against premine but the way DRK is presenting theirs is unethical to my standards.

Are you sure the possibility of Monero`s death is as high as 50%?  In which case Monero can die?

In my humble opinion: unfortunately monero's chance of "death" is much higher than 50% with "death" defined as abandoned, superseded, broken, or otherwise rendered virtually valueless.

The 50% number was within 2 years. I don't find that an unreasonable estimate. Hard to see how death within two years is more likely than not considering the project has been going strong for >1 year and is still achieving new milestones, for example the first crowdfunded developer.

[TrueCryptonaire]

@rpietila

what is your opinion about the price for 1 xmr in about 2-3 Years and the same for DRK?

Thank´s for your answer

"My opinion" can only be defined as "my estimate of the probabilities of various scenarios", and Expected Value can be calculated out of it. The problem with this approach is similar to someone asking a poker player: "What is your opinion, do you win this round?" Poker is not played out of opinion, but out of rigorous mathematical probabilities, coupled with psychology concerning the read of the opponent. Predicting the prices of Crypto is even harder since there are no rigorous probabilities that all would agree.

That said, I give about 50% chance that XMR will totally fail (be valued essentially at zero) in 2-3 years. The other 50% would be about:
- 10% valued at the same as now
- 10% valued at $1
- 10% valued at $2-5
- 10% valued at ~$10
- 10% valued at much more.

I cannot really give estimate on DRK. It currently has a higher marketcap than XMR but I haven't invested anything in it. I am not against premine but the way DRK is presenting theirs is unethical to my standards.

Are you sure the possibility of Monero`s death is as high as 50%?  In which case Monero can die?

In my humble opinion: unfortunately monero's chance of "death" is much higher than 50% with "death" defined as abandoned, superseded, broken, or otherwise rendered virtually valueless.

The 50% number was within 2 years. I don't find that an unreasonable estimate. Hard to see how death within two years is more likely than not considering the project has been going strong for >1 year and is still achieving new milestones, for example the first crowdfunded developer.

I think it is time to decrease the probability of failure.
In my own trading/speculation I give the probability of failure only 10-20 % at this moment, and thus the probability for at least a moderate success is 80-90 %.
I am not saying you guys should be as bullish as I am but I think it is reasonable to check the numbers every now and then.
The main argument is the community. No matter if a superior technology comes - but if it will not have a good community it is a mere token held by a few geeks only. To be a succesful currency it needs a community that consists of plenty of people who rather are greedy getting more coins than limiting their coin acquiring operations.

[XMRChina]

I wont comment on the probabilility of failure because I do not feel qualified to quantify it.

I will say that the longer the community continues to grow and development progress continues to be made the greater the chance of success.

Look up all the coins that were launched with a bitcointalk announcement last year around the same time as Monero.  Monero is doing better that 99% of them. Many thousands of coins have been launched over the last year. How many of those has a community as strong as ours?

Of those with a strong community how many are had a premine, instamine or fastmine? How many allow for private transactions at the protocol level without and form of centralized mixing?

Most coins now seem to be designed with a very short PoW period followed by a conversion to PoS to make the developers BTC quickly. Unfortunately this model does not have the proper incentives for lasting development or growing a community.

Monero is built to last. Lots of progress has been made but XMR prices are still lower than they were last summer. This is a wonderful thing for potential community members looking at Monero. New community members can buy Monero at prices lower than many early adopters did a year ago! However this period is unlikely to last much longer as emission is slowing and demand will soon far outweigh supply from the miners.

I think it is possible that the next month or two (before translations and worldwide marketing plans are ramped up and while less than 50% of XMR has been mined) may be the last opportunity to buy Monero at anywhere near these price levels.

Of course this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong. I look at many coins quite carefully. There are none that I am nearly excited about as Monero.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I wont comment on the probably of failure because I do not feel qualified to quantify it.

I will say that the longer the community continues to grow and development progress continues to be made the greater the chance of success.

Look up all the coins that were launched with a bitcointalk announcement last year around the same time as Monero.  Monero is doing better that 99% of them. Many thousands of coins have been launched over the last year. How many of those has a community as strong as ours?

Of those with a strong community how many are had a premine, instamine or fastmine? How many allow for private transactions at the protocol level without and form of centralized mixing?

Most coins now seem to be designed with a very short PoW period followed by a conversion to PoS to make the developers BTC quickly. Unfortunately this model does not have the proper incentives for lasting development or growing a community.

Monero is built to last. Lots of progress has been made but XMR prices are still lower than they were last summer. This is a wonderful thing for potential community members looking at Monero. New community members can buy Monero at prices lower than many early adopters did a year ago! However this period is unlikely to last much longer as emission is slowing and demand will soon far outweigh supply from the miners.

I think it is possible that the next month or two (before translations and worldwide marketing plans are ramped up and while less than 50% of XMR has been mined) may be the last opportunity to buy Monero at anywhere near these price levels.

Of course this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong. I look at many coins quite carefully. There are none that I am nearly excited about as Monero.

I tend to agree with you.
The emission looks now great and the chart and supply of coins in exchanges is pretty scarce which makes the coin potentially very explosive even if we get a moderate amount of new money into Monero.

However, if Monero takes off, it is cheap buy even for 0.50 BTC.

[cAPSLOCK]

The 50% number was within 2 years. I don't find that an unreasonable estimate. Hard to see how death within two years is more likely than not considering the project has been going strong for >1 year and is still achieving new milestones, for example the first crowdfunded developer.

Ah yes... the within two years part.  I would say 50% is too high.
Sorry.  I missed that detail.

[SmoothCurves]

I wont comment on the probably of failure because I do not feel qualified to quantify it.

I will say that the longer the community continues to grow and development progress continues to be made the greater the chance of success.

Look up all the coins that were launched with a bitcointalk announcement last year around the same time as Monero.  Monero is doing better that 99% of them. Many thousands of coins have been launched over the last year. How many of those has a community as strong as ours?

Of those with a strong community how many are had a premine, instamine or fastmine? How many allow for private transactions at the protocol level without and form of centralized mixing?

Most coins now seem to be designed with a very short PoW period followed by a conversion to PoS to make the developers BTC quickly. Unfortunately this model does not have the proper incentives for lasting development or growing a community.

Monero is built to last. Lots of progress has been made but XMR prices are still lower than they were last summer. This is a wonderful thing for potential community members looking at Monero. New community members can buy Monero at prices lower than many early adopters did a year ago! However this period is unlikely to last much longer as emission is slowing and demand will soon far outweigh supply from the miners.

I think it is possible that the next month or two (before translations and worldwide marketing plans are ramped up and while less than 50% of XMR has been mined) may be the last opportunity to buy Monero at anywhere near these price levels.

Of course this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong. I look at many coins quite carefully. There are none that I am nearly excited about as Monero.

I tend to agree with you.
The emission looks now great and the chart and supply of coins in exchanges is pretty scarce which makes the coin potentially very explosive even if we get a moderate amount of new money into Monero.

However, if Monero takes off, it is cheap buy even for 0.50 BTC.

Cheap at .5 BTC? So you expect XMR to reach BTC parity?

[XMRChina]

please vote and share your opinion
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1122971.0

[jehst]

I wont comment on the probably of failure because I do not feel qualified to quantify it.

I will say that the longer the community continues to grow and development progress continues to be made the greater the chance of success.

Look up all the coins that were launched with a bitcointalk announcement last year around the same time as Monero.  Monero is doing better that 99% of them. Many thousands of coins have been launched over the last year. How many of those has a community as strong as ours?

Of those with a strong community how many are had a premine, instamine or fastmine? How many allow for private transactions at the protocol level without and form of centralized mixing?

Most coins now seem to be designed with a very short PoW period followed by a conversion to PoS to make the developers BTC quickly. Unfortunately this model does not have the proper incentives for lasting development or growing a community.

Monero is built to last. Lots of progress has been made but XMR prices are still lower than they were last summer. This is a wonderful thing for potential community members looking at Monero. New community members can buy Monero at prices lower than many early adopters did a year ago! However this period is unlikely to last much longer as emission is slowing and demand will soon far outweigh supply from the miners.

I think it is possible that the next month or two (before translations and worldwide marketing plans are ramped up and while less than 50% of XMR has been mined) may be the last opportunity to buy Monero at anywhere near these price levels.

Of course this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong. I look at many coins quite carefully. There are none that I am nearly excited about as Monero.

I tend to agree with you.
The emission looks now great and the chart and supply of coins in exchanges is pretty scarce which makes the coin potentially very explosive even if we get a moderate amount of new money into Monero.

However, if Monero takes off, it is cheap buy even for 0.50 BTC.

Cheap at .5 BTC? So you expect XMR to reach BTC parity?

If XMR moves into the (at least) 20 trillion dollar "offshore private wealth storage" market before bitcoin does, then it can be as big or bigger than bitcoin.

I see no evidence that bitcoin has made any real advances into this area. Otherwise, it wouldn't have such a tiny market cap. The market is "up for grabs."

Bitcoin is the best candidate for this market if you are looking at hashing power and development activity. But XMR offers banking privacy which is something that you have (to some degree) in Switzerland and the Cayman Islands, yet bitcoin lacks it.

  

[SmoothCurves]

I wont comment on the probably of failure because I do not feel qualified to quantify it.

I will say that the longer the community continues to grow and development progress continues to be made the greater the chance of success.

Look up all the coins that were launched with a bitcointalk announcement last year around the same time as Monero.  Monero is doing better that 99% of them. Many thousands of coins have been launched over the last year. How many of those has a community as strong as ours?

Of those with a strong community how many are had a premine, instamine or fastmine? How many allow for private transactions at the protocol level without and form of centralized mixing?

Most coins now seem to be designed with a very short PoW period followed by a conversion to PoS to make the developers BTC quickly. Unfortunately this model does not have the proper incentives for lasting development or growing a community.

Monero is built to last. Lots of progress has been made but XMR prices are still lower than they were last summer. This is a wonderful thing for potential community members looking at Monero. New community members can buy Monero at prices lower than many early adopters did a year ago! However this period is unlikely to last much longer as emission is slowing and demand will soon far outweigh supply from the miners.

I think it is possible that the next month or two (before translations and worldwide marketing plans are ramped up and while less than 50% of XMR has been mined) may be the last opportunity to buy Monero at anywhere near these price levels.

Of course this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong. I look at many coins quite carefully. There are none that I am nearly excited about as Monero.

I tend to agree with you.
The emission looks now great and the chart and supply of coins in exchanges is pretty scarce which makes the coin potentially very explosive even if we get a moderate amount of new money into Monero.

However, if Monero takes off, it is cheap buy even for 0.50 BTC.

Cheap at .5 BTC? So you expect XMR to reach BTC parity?

If XMR moves into the (at least) 20 trillion dollar "offshore private wealth storage" market before bitcoin does, then it can be as big or bigger than bitcoin.

I see no evidence that bitcoin has made any real advances into this area. Otherwise, it wouldn't have such a tiny market cap. The market is "up for grabs."

Bitcoin is the best candidate for this market if you are looking at hashing power and development activity. But XMR offers banking privacy which is something that you have (to some degree) in Switzerland and the Cayman Islands, yet bitcoin lacks it.

  

Thanks for the reply! I've used the Cayman Islands as a way of describing the relationship of XMR to BTC. I had no idea it was worth 20 trillion!

[kazuki49]

I wont comment on the probably of failure because I do not feel qualified to quantify it.

I will say that the longer the community continues to grow and development progress continues to be made the greater the chance of success.

Look up all the coins that were launched with a bitcointalk announcement last year around the same time as Monero.  Monero is doing better that 99% of them. Many thousands of coins have been launched over the last year. How many of those has a community as strong as ours?

Of those with a strong community how many are had a premine, instamine or fastmine? How many allow for private transactions at the protocol level without and form of centralized mixing?

Most coins now seem to be designed with a very short PoW period followed by a conversion to PoS to make the developers BTC quickly. Unfortunately this model does not have the proper incentives for lasting development or growing a community.

Monero is built to last. Lots of progress has been made but XMR prices are still lower than they were last summer. This is a wonderful thing for potential community members looking at Monero. New community members can buy Monero at prices lower than many early adopters did a year ago! However this period is unlikely to last much longer as emission is slowing and demand will soon far outweigh supply from the miners.

I think it is possible that the next month or two (before translations and worldwide marketing plans are ramped up and while less than 50% of XMR has been mined) may be the last opportunity to buy Monero at anywhere near these price levels.

Of course this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong. I look at many coins quite carefully. There are none that I am nearly excited about as Monero.

I tend to agree with you.
The emission looks now great and the chart and supply of coins in exchanges is pretty scarce which makes the coin potentially very explosive even if we get a moderate amount of new money into Monero.

However, if Monero takes off, it is cheap buy even for 0.50 BTC.

Cheap at .5 BTC? So you expect XMR to reach BTC parity?

If XMR moves into the (at least) 20 trillion dollar "offshore private wealth storage" market before bitcoin does, then it can be as big or bigger than bitcoin.

I see no evidence that bitcoin has made any real advances into this area. Otherwise, it wouldn't have such a tiny market cap. The market is "up for grabs."

Bitcoin is the best candidate for this market if you are looking at hashing power and development activity. But XMR offers banking privacy which is something that you have (to some degree) in Switzerland and the Cayman Islands, yet bitcoin lacks it.

   

Thanks for the reply! I've used the Cayman Islands as a way of describing the relationship of XMR to BTC. I had no idea it was worth 20 trillion!

It's actually way more than that, the average person has no access to Cayman Islands, Monero is readly available, functional and at reach

[generalizethis]

I wont comment on the probably of failure because I do not feel qualified to quantify it.

I will say that the longer the community continues to grow and development progress continues to be made the greater the chance of success.

Look up all the coins that were launched with a bitcointalk announcement last year around the same time as Monero.  Monero is doing better that 99% of them. Many thousands of coins have been launched over the last year. How many of those has a community as strong as ours?

Of those with a strong community how many are had a premine, instamine or fastmine? How many allow for private transactions at the protocol level without and form of centralized mixing?

Most coins now seem to be designed with a very short PoW period followed by a conversion to PoS to make the developers BTC quickly. Unfortunately this model does not have the proper incentives for lasting development or growing a community.

Monero is built to last. Lots of progress has been made but XMR prices are still lower than they were last summer. This is a wonderful thing for potential community members looking at Monero. New community members can buy Monero at prices lower than many early adopters did a year ago! However this period is unlikely to last much longer as emission is slowing and demand will soon far outweigh supply from the miners.

I think it is possible that the next month or two (before translations and worldwide marketing plans are ramped up and while less than 50% of XMR has been mined) may be the last opportunity to buy Monero at anywhere near these price levels.

Of course this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong. I look at many coins quite carefully. There are none that I am nearly excited about as Monero.

I tend to agree with you.
The emission looks now great and the chart and supply of coins in exchanges is pretty scarce which makes the coin potentially very explosive even if we get a moderate amount of new money into Monero.

However, if Monero takes off, it is cheap buy even for 0.50 BTC.

Cheap at .5 BTC? So you expect XMR to reach BTC parity?

If XMR moves into the (at least) 20 trillion dollar "offshore private wealth storage" market before bitcoin does, then it can be as big or bigger than bitcoin.

I see no evidence that bitcoin has made any real advances into this area. Otherwise, it wouldn't have such a tiny market cap. The market is "up for grabs."

Bitcoin is the best candidate for this market if you are looking at hashing power and development activity. But XMR offers banking privacy which is something that you have (to some degree) in Switzerland and the Cayman Islands, yet bitcoin lacks it.

  

Thanks for the reply! I've used the Cayman Islands as a way of describing the relationship of XMR to BTC. I had no idea it was worth 20 trillion!

It's actually way more than that, the average person has no access to Cayman Islands, Monero is readly available, functional and at reach

And you aren't subject to political swings or untangling yourself from the fine print with Monero. Anyone who has seen Blow or Wolf of Wall Street should know that Panama and Switzetrland were safe havens until they weren't. The solutions are sometimes riskier than the problems.

[smoothie]

Figured some monero-aholics would be interested in this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1123066.msg11881938#msg11881938

[elrippo]

You might find this interesting  
Monero on cryptopia.co.nz

You can vote ONCE/DAY!!!