[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kazuki49]

"We control the XMR market" ...proceeds to use borrowed XMR to dump and put in the ask wall waiting someone to buy while time runs out.

lol where is that vulture guy, he is the joke of the year.

[smoothie]

I totally agree with you NOW as someone who now understands crypto, BUT back in 2011, when I was a layman, I saw the crappy cartoon video and thought, "This is crap, man. Don't pay me in crappy shitcoin, Gimme dollars!" The cartoon video went too much into the nerdy mechanics of it while the 2nd video was more humanistic. It talked about how it would disruptively revolutionize money on a global scale. I am a human being. I need a humanistic explanation, not a nerdy "how it works" video.

Some guy in my church told everyone to invest in bitcoin back in 2011. He just told people the nerdy mechanics of it and told people how it worked. Nobody listened to him. People thought he was crazy. I joined this church recently and told people a humanistic explanation of why bitcoin is so important and half a dozen people immediately asked me to drive them to a bitcoin ATM. These 6 people also used all or some of their bitcoins to buy Monero.

I am not blaming the video for not investing in 2011. I am asking you guys to explain bitcoin and monero in a humanistic manner while glossing over the mechanics of how it works in order to get more people on board and using bitcoin (and other cryptos like Monero).

Yup, back in 2011, I saw the "we use coins" video and thought that bitcoin was crap because the video was crap. Now, I wish I bought back then because I would've made a tidy profit. It was at less than $10 per BTC when I saw the video and it was at over $1000 when I saw bitcoin next on the internet. Why didn't the "we use coins" guys make a better freaking video?!

Crap "we use coins" video: https://youtu.be/Um63OQz3bjo
Video that caused me to invest in Bitcoin and later other cryptocurrency: https://youtu.be/rzKdW-au110

I was checking the prices to see if a person was really trying to go "all in" on what americanpegasus was selling/marketing, and it only went up a cent... No matter, I believe that if a majority of them start reading more into it and seeing what's at stake, then I think they'll start slowly buying into it.  I think most of them know that the price of any altcoin isn't going to skyrocket when the GUI isn't even out yet, like what americanpegasus pointed out in one of his answers.

Nobody learns of something then buys it the very next day. When I first heard of Bitcoin in 2011 I was interested, but had no money to invest. When I finally made the decision to buy some in 2012, it still took a few months to do research on how to buy it, how to use it, then finally buy it. If some new people are interested and learning about it, that's all that matters now.

LOL yeah blame the video for you not investing.   <----- the lesson of why not to judge a book by its cover.

Seriously the video could have been two guys holding up cut out paper puppets attached to chopsticks doing a play to explain what and how bitcoin works and why it matters and I would have still saw the importance.

"Better video"? I thought the we use coins video make the message perfectly clear the FIRST time I watched it.

It is the same reason that I support Monero. Its interface make look like crap (CLI) but it does something important very well.

The makeup and lipstick will come.

I understand your point and yes it is a good thing to make the videos more humanistic. But that kind of says that techies are not humans or humanistic and is kind of ignorant as well. There is both sides to that point.

The video was made to explain why bitcoin had advantages where fiat missed the point.

At the end of the weusecoins video they say that "Bitcoin is changing finance much like email changed the postal service".

Very powerful words if you listened to it.

My question to you is did you watch the weusecoins video all the way through the first time you saw it?

[chennan]

I think it would be nice if someone where to make a Monero video that is kind of like weusecoins's video... It's pretty simple and easy to understand, and would easily explain to new people the advantages of Monero compared to fiat, bitcoin, and other currencies.

[smoothie]

Do you know why Linux hasn't superseded Windows, despite being a superior product?  Because Linux is not easy, is not necessary for the average customer, and Linux does not inherently make them feel important or carry status with it.  Monero can't afford to be Linux.  You can get on the anti-Apple bandwagon all you want (I'll agree with you in many ways), but their marketing is the fuck on point.  
  

I agree...

But the most important thing for a coin to succeed and to be adopted by all users and shops (on internet or real street store), is at first : to have a complete payment confirmation in less than 10 seconds, ideally 5.

That depends on your target market. Are you just trying to reach people who are buying coffee and donuts or are you trying to reach and deal with people who want to buy medium to large size items in terms of price/value?

Cars, real estate, motorcycles, heavy machinery, servers, precious metals, etc.

No one would accept 5-10 second flimsy confirmations knowing how the blockchain technology works. You could have your money/things stolen by double spending problem.

[smoothie]

I already did, I see no innovation at all.
Just sold 1/3 of my Monero, made a profit and bought into Digibyte.
If it goes on like this I will sell everything.

please sell it all thanks! 

[smoothie]

Regarding last 2 medium sized dumps (~6k & ~5k), it's someone shorting again:

snip...

Left column is the aggregate offers, center column is the aggregate demand and right column the weighted average interest rate.

Take a look yourself -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

It seems that someone is really eager to short, because demand is spiking now as well. Someone wants to borrow (demands) ~8k+ XMR at a rate of 2% per day. Even though the rate is high, I would advise no one to put his XMR up for offer, because it could really hurt the market.

The fact that someone is offering 2% PER DAY to borrow 8,000 XMR says that they aren't planning to hold that short position for long.

Max a week. That's 14% so they are hoping to drop the market more than 2% per day (or in one day) to make a profit. Otherwise what's the point?

Let em short. 

[chennan]

Do you know why Linux hasn't superseded Windows, despite being a superior product?  Because Linux is not easy, is not necessary for the average customer, and Linux does not inherently make them feel important or carry status with it.  Monero can't afford to be Linux.  You can get on the anti-Apple bandwagon all you want (I'll agree with you in many ways), but their marketing is the fuck on point. 
 

I agree...

But the most important thing for a coin to succeed and to be adopted by all users and shops (on internet or real street store), is at first : to have a complete payment confirmation in less than 10 seconds, ideally 5.

That depends on your target market. Are you just trying to reach people who are buying coffee and donuts or are you trying to reach and deal with people who want to buy medium to large size items in terms of price/value?

Cars, real estate, motorcycles, heavy machinery, servers, precious metals, etc.

No one would accept 5-10 second flimsy confirmations knowing how the blockchain technology works. You could have your money/things stolen by double spending problem.

Exactly... I think that there will need to be/there will be 3 cryptos that will run everything in the future. 

1) Bitcoin: because it is the first one, and will be used as the "gold standard" of cryptos.  Or like the petro dollar in some cases, where all other currencies will be compared to for value purposes.  I think people will still transact in bitcoins, but will mostly be used as a stock that steadily over time increases in value over the years (quite figuratively and literally "digital gold")

2) Monero: for big transactions.  Large purchases that require heavy security (Cars, boats, real estate, etc. etc.)

3) Litecoin: Fast, everyday transactions for your coffee, movie tickets, restaraunts, that sort of thing. (I've read that eMunie might even bring about an ever faster transaction time... but it hasn't been released yet and the devs are still working on the coin/code)

Until someone else comes up with some other coin that brings about a completely different functional use, which I don't really see happening, then I think those coins will dominate the future global currency scene in the years to come.

[ArticMine]

Regarding last 2 medium sized dumps (~6k & ~5k), it's someone shorting again:

snip...

Left column is the aggregate offers, center column is the aggregate demand and right column the weighted average interest rate.

Take a look yourself -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

It seems that someone is really eager to short, because demand is spiking now as well. Someone wants to borrow (demands) ~8k+ XMR at a rate of 2% per day. Even though the rate is high, I would advise no one to put his XMR up for offer, because it could really hurt the market.

The fact that someone is offering 2% PER DAY to borrow 8,000 XMR says that they aren't planning to hold that short position for long.

Max a week. That's 14% so they are hoping to drop the market more than 2% per day (or in one day) to make a profit. Otherwise what's the point?

Let em short.  

Wow. Pirateat40 only offered 1% a day on Bitcoin.  I say buy and / or hold and take delivery. This worked very well with Bitcoin in  late 2011 and 2012.

[smoothie]

Regarding last 2 medium sized dumps (~6k & ~5k), it's someone shorting again:

snip...

Left column is the aggregate offers, center column is the aggregate demand and right column the weighted average interest rate.

Take a look yourself -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

It seems that someone is really eager to short, because demand is spiking now as well. Someone wants to borrow (demands) ~8k+ XMR at a rate of 2% per day. Even though the rate is high, I would advise no one to put his XMR up for offer, because it could really hurt the market.

The fact that someone is offering 2% PER DAY to borrow 8,000 XMR says that they aren't planning to hold that short position for long.

Max a week. That's 14% so they are hoping to drop the market more than 2% per day (or in one day) to make a profit. Otherwise what's the point?

Let em short.  

Wow. Pirateat40 only offered 1% a day on Bitcoin.  I say buy and / or hold and take delivery. This worked very well with Bitcoin in  late 2011 and 2012.

I know that's what I thought of PirateAt40.

Yeah keep borrowing at ridiculous interest rates lol. 2% per day hmm that's 730% per year (assuming it is not compounded). 8,000 XMR  --> 58,400 in a year's time.

Yeah i'm pretty sure whoever is shorting won't hold on to that short for a very long time. 

[mmortal03]

As bitcoin rises, most (if not all alts), will fall.

This cycle has happened several times with XMR, LTC, DASH.

If bitcoin breaks to the upside expect lower prices all around (at least in the medium/short term).

I recall people stating the opposite in the past, that alts went down when the price of bitcoins went down, and up when the price of bitcoins went up.

[nioc]

I believe they are talking about different scenarios.  btc drifting up or down, then alts follow.  btc to the moon, people sell alts and board the btc train and after the btc train stops people look for an alternative train.

[chennan]

As bitcoin rises, most (if not all alts), will fall.

This cycle has happened several times with XMR, LTC, DASH.

If bitcoin breaks to the upside expect lower prices all around (at least in the medium/short term).

I recall people stating the opposite in the past, that alts went down when the price of bitcoins went down, and up when the price of bitcoins went up.

Yeah there are arguments for both sides, but I think the most reasonable argument is the one that if BTC goes down, everything else goes down (in general) ... I think this is true, because of the fact that it would be hard to make people believe in another crypto if the original one failed.  Idk how much truth is in these opinions though... each altcoin has their own market/purpose, just like bitcoin does.

[Febo]

As bitcoin rises, most (if not all alts), will fall.

This cycle has happened several times with XMR, LTC, DASH.

If bitcoin breaks to the upside expect lower prices all around (at least in the medium/short term).

I recall people stating the opposite in the past, that alts went down when the price of bitcoins went down, and up when the price of bitcoins went up.

Yeah there are arguments for both sides, but I think the most reasonable argument is the one that if BTC goes down, everything else goes down (in general) ... I think this is true, because of the fact that it would be hard to make people believe in another crypto if the original one failed.  Idk how much truth is in these opinions though... each altcoin has their own market/purpose, just like bitcoin does.

All alts are linked to BTC since most are only traded in BTC. If tomorrow BTC suddenly gets priced $2000 i doubt you will see Monero under $0.5

For sure Monero will not be 0.00155 BTC anymore but will also be much more worth in fiat at is is now.

[kennyP]

get ready for coins below 0.001!!

yum ... I hope so!!

[americanpegasus]

Wow, lucky me.  I've got some extra money coming in a bonus check and was going to buy more xmr with it.  I'm not trying to make threats.  It's going to be a decent chunk of money, but not a titanic amount.  
  
I'm genuinely excited that someone artificially lowered the price for me.  Hopefully it holds long enough to for the Coinbase ACH buy to happen plus trading.  

[Harpua]

Wow, lucky me.  I've got some extra money coming in a bonus check and was going to buy more xmr with it.  I'm not trying to make threats.  It's going to be a decent chunk of money, but not a titanic amount.  
  
I'm genuinely excited that someone artificially lowered the price for me.  Hopefully it holds long enough to for the Coinbase ACH buy to happen plus trading.  

Ughh, I want to go all in on this price too... the problem is, is that I spent my "extra income" for bitcoin on circle and is going to take 4 business days to get to me. I think by that time the price will be back to the normal amount 

[aminorex]

Ughh, I want to go all in on this price too... the problem is, is that I spent my "extra income" for bitcoin on circle and is going to take 4 business days to get to me. I think by that time the price will be back to the normal amount 

I've become fairly good at adding without moving it much.  Patience is all.  Let the short squeezes do the movement for you.

[aminorex]

All alts are linked to BTC since most are only traded in BTC.

That's a bit non sequitur.  Note that they are mined with electricity priced in local fiat.   It's fundamentally a buyers market right now, and the price reflects the cost of goods sold pretty darn well.  During a speculative bubble, a driving event, or  accumulation phases that will cease to be true.  The wager made by long-term holders is that eventually PQ=MV will take over, as Q grows, with sufficient probability to merit the current opportunity cost of holding (which is only a small fraction of the clearing price, etc etc).

[Edit to correct quasi-dyslexic inversion.]

[rpietila]

That something is priced in something else is a factor in the valuation of the former, but in the world of nearly-frictionless conversion of liquid assets, it is a nearly-negligible factor all things equal.

(but if all things are not equal and it is the case that XMR happens to be valued mostly by people whose home currency factually is BTC, what is the problem then?)

[owm123]

ETH trading volume now is 158BTC and 126BTC for xmr on.

Soon xmr might have greater volume than eth. I think it could be the first time since ETH launch.