[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kazuki49]

Let's say we had the exact same situation as the U.S. Dollar today bundled up in Monero (in reality it might even be worse considering that half of all Monero is already mined:)  

The emission is the only thing we have to deal with it, I would be worried if Monero was much more expensive and the emission did not allowed "fair" entry points even months or years after launch, thats why I have put my personal deadline for Monero 'make it or break it' further in the future, I have not lowered my expectations but simply reckoned the impact of the bear market and the emission. Most people that would be interested or eventually use Monero cannot or won't mine it, so they will exchange fiat or goods for Monero (also from a legal perspective nothing beats the POW coin generation safe haven) thats why liquidity is important (and Monero will be mined forever) so when people interested in Monero want to buy, its available at exchanges at reasonable quantities, these Moneroj proceed to be used in a Monero economy, thats why I believe deflationary coins are doomed, in case of Bitcoin the 1mb block limit does not help either, it will lead to a process of fiatization of the blockchain with services working as intermediates like coinbase and others with power over your transaction history that only the NSA or USG could dream of (not that they don't automatically have access to coinbase records). The Bitcoin visionaries of the past not helping build Monero or a better e-cash are building a dystopic future.

[klee]

If BTC breaks 275 all alts* will get hammered hard. At some point they will bottom (regardless of BTC price action) and then they will bubble.

If BTC goes below 230 I expect XMR to rally hard too.

*(The alts that I have under my trading radar are XMR, BTS, ETH, XRP & a bit NXT - I am afraid that the latter may never bounce, so I am watching only for the moment..)

[smoothie]

I wonder who has been cashing out. This sell pressure seemed way higher than daily emission. Some of it was shorting sure, but that doesnt amount to full number of coins in the dumps we saw.

If true, wonder what the rationale was.

During downtrends it has always been like this. Could just be traders willing to buy back lower (also, we had a few big shorters). Miners cashing out, but due to lower buying pressure we went down more. Could also be that miners that previously held their coins exhibited signs of reverse FOMO (missing out on buy walls :-P). Then there is also market manipulation, which can easily be observed by the stacking of asks someone is doing. ArticMine's reasoning makes sense as well. I don't think it was someone big cashing out, just a collective of all reasons described that did the trick.

It should also be noted that alts are getting slaughtered in general. All top 20 alts went down significantly and the main reason of this was the soar of bitcoin's price. So it could very well be that we are just correlating with that.

usually you expect this to continue. I think it will in the near term to medium term.

Then what happens, BTC falls and alts rally and the cycle repeats until at some point prices are in the clouds...bubble pops, cycle repeats with bear market.

[LucyLovesCrypto]

If BTC breaks 275 all alts* will get hammered hard. At some point they will bottom (regardless of BTC price action) and then they will bubble.

If BTC goes below 230 I expect XMR to rally hard too.

*(The alts that I have under my trading radar are XMR, BTS, ETH, XRP & a bit NXT - I am afraid that the latter may never bounce, so I am watching only for the moment..)

I have noticed same pattern of alts acting opposite of BTC but it is not always true with XMR.

Why do you like both XMR and XRP? They seem like complete opposites (in terms of privacy).

[iCEBREAKER]

Let's say we had the exact same situation as the U.S. Dollar today bundled up in Monero (in reality it might even be worse considering that half of all Monero is already mined:)  

The emission is the only thing we have to deal with it, I would be worried if Monero was much more expensive and the emission did not allowed "fair" entry points even months or years after launch, thats why I have put my personal deadline for Monero 'make it or break it' further in the future, I have not lowered my expectations but simply reckoned the impact of the bear market and the emission. Most people that would be interested or eventually use Monero cannot or won't mine it, so they will exchange fiat or goods for Monero (also from a legal perspective nothing beats the POW coin generation safe haven) thats why liquidity is important (and Monero will be mined forever) so when people interested in Monero want to buy, its available at exchanges at reasonable quantities, these Moneroj proceed to be used in a Monero economy, thats why I believe deflationary coins are doomed, in case of Bitcoin the 1mb block limit does not help either, it will lead to a process of fiatization of the blockchain with services working as intermediates like coinbase and others with power over your transaction history that only the NSA or USG could dream of (not that they don't automatically have access to coinbase records). The Bitcoin visionaries of the past not helping build Monero or a better e-cash are building a dystopic future.

I'm happy everyone paying attention (ie the people who matter) will have ~2 years to acquire Monero at ~$1.

Our well-seeded ecosystem may then blossom into vibrant fecundity.

You guys catch this Epic Tweet?

Think of the boldness. Establish facts on the ground - everywhere. Ship the future so fast they can't ban it. The Network outruns the State.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/655664767567171584

[americanpegasus]

You guys catch this Epic Tweet?

Think of the boldness. Establish facts on the ground - everywhere. Ship the future so fast they can't ban it. The Network outruns the State.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/655664767567171584

Yes, the cyphercromnicon was advocating the same: severely disruptive technologies must be released on an open and neutral basis and build up enough support before the-powers-that-be notice them as to be unstoppable. 
 
We are going to see a future where the governments of the world literally won't be able to keep up with the changes enough to regulate them. 
 
Already the entire playing field changes every few years.... this likely won't slow down until we reach breakneck speed.  Cryptocurrency is only going to accelerate this process faster.  We may face a situation in the 2030's where the playing field is changing in a matter of months or weeks.  Entire companies and technologies may rise and fall within a calendar year, and people will make and lose fortunes over the course of a single summer. 
 
People who don't cultivate an open and curious mind will be forced to bury their heads in their pillows and accept the decisions made for them by the techno-elite, as dystopian as that sounds.

[rpietila]

Seems that my recent announcement concerning CK fits the topic:

This is funny to say in such an early stage where our software has just started operating, and the semi-independent Earlship in the Counties having economic freedom to do as they see fit is not even established, and will not be in the next 6 months due to other developments taking precedence, but:

In the long term, when our systems are reasonably feature-rich and bug-free, and the initial development costs are reclaimed (which they are in a continuous basis currently), the intention is to officially make the software public domain, allowing anyone to create complete Kingdoms and host them on their own servers, with none whatsoever liability to us. What is more, if those Kingdoms are configured to realistic and compatible economic parameters with ours, we can establish Embassies with them, and allow foreign trade in items. Since the monetary system in the game is limited to being the denominator of prices, and medium of exchange, and is 100% reserve-based with depositories with a viewkey, they may even have different currencies, as we also could change our monetary system to be Bitcoin or CKG-based with a very easy effort if we wished (and we don't).

It is about the people. Who gets the most people to follow him, has great power. In everything with Crypto Kingdom, I have attempted to create something that will last. In the decision to start from the top and slowly work the way towards a larger audience. In the decision to demand the database logic to be rewritten to be more secure. In the untold hours of administration the details most would regard as minute. I am satisfied with the progress. I am eagerly waiting for the Countryside expansion, giving semi-independence to Earls and higher to enable their best skills to be put into practice. But in the spirit of a free and limitless market for the products of imagination, I don't want to enforce IPR any more to my own efforts than I believe the others have right to deny still others to enjoy their imagination freely. This game is standing on the shoulders of giants, including Civilization, Second Life, Monopoly, Habbo Hotel, World of Warcraft, Clash of Clans and EVE Online. May this game in public domain be an unending inspiration to future generations as well.

[chennan]

You guys catch this Epic Tweet?

Think of the boldness. Establish facts on the ground - everywhere. Ship the future so fast they can't ban it. The Network outruns the State.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/655664767567171584

Yes, the cyphercromnicon was advocating the same: severely disruptive technologies must be released on an open and neutral basis and build up enough support before the-powers-that-be notice them as to be unstoppable. 
 
We are going to see a future where the governments of the world literally won't be able to keep up with the changes enough to regulate them. 
 
Already the entire playing field changes every few years.... this likely won't slow down until we reach breakneck speed.  Cryptocurrency is only going to accelerate this process faster.  We may face a situation in the 2030's where the playing field is changing in a matter of months or weeks.  Entire companies and technologies may rise and fall within a calendar year, and people will make and lose fortunes over the course of a single summer. 
 
People who don't cultivate an open and curious mind will be forced to bury their heads in their pillows and accept the decisions made for them by the techno-elite, as dystopian as that sounds.

What do you all think about what's going to happen in the next 10-20 years if/when monero or another cryptocurrency becomes the foundation for a world currency that is established and has a very significant value to companies and businesses alike?  If people start using cryptos for their everyday purchases, and will be choosing to earn a salary in, let's say for the sake of this thread, XMR... Do you think the governments will purpose a way to have a "mandatory" re-distribution of wealth and take XMR from people like us who are currently investing in monero as of right now?

If we become the wealthy 1% in a world now accepting xmr everywhere, where would we go from there?

[nioc]

You guys catch this Epic Tweet?

Think of the boldness. Establish facts on the ground - everywhere. Ship the future so fast they can't ban it. The Network outruns the State.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/655664767567171584

He's talking about a car, yes a nice car.

[languagehasmeaning]

How is MoneroDice doing? I have not played there but am interested in hearing the usage stats if they can be shared

[farfiman]

How is MoneroDice doing? I have not played there but am interested in hearing the usage stats if they can be shared

http://monerodice.pd.to/charts.php

[chennan]

How is MoneroDice doing? I have not played there but am interested in hearing the usage stats if they can be shared

http://monerodice.pd.to/charts.php

Oh wow... -20,000+ XMR at one point.  That would be enough to have me sweating as an administrator for the site.  Though as long as it gets people using XMR and not holding it as an investment tool on polo then it's all good.

[newb4now]

How is MoneroDice doing? I have not played there but am interested in hearing the usage stats if they can be shared

http://monerodice.pd.to/charts.php

Oh wow... -20,000+ XMR at one point.  That would be enough to have me sweating as an administrator for the site.  Though as long as it gets people using XMR and not holding it as an investment tool on polo then it's all good.

So far the players appear to be more lucky than the investors.

[aminorex]

Mining is an arms race and I refuse to race for the tiny carrot reward at the end of the race.

Rather just buy whatever it is you are considering mining.

If you're clever, you do both.  Thus making XMR harder to mine.  Thus increasing the value of the XMR you bought, since the supply dries up at prices below the mining cost.

[smoothie]

Mining is an arms race and I refuse to race for the tiny carrot reward at the end of the race.

Rather just buy whatever it is you are considering mining.

If you're clever, you do both.  Thus making XMR harder to mine.  Thus increasing the value of the XMR you bought, since the supply dries up at prices below the mining cost.

Cleverness has nothing to do with ability to run a mining farm. Money has everything to do with it as you could simply hire someone to set it up for you if you have the money to fund it all.

You bring up a good point as the mining reward decreases in theory your holdings and value of XMR should go up. That may take some time before that happens.

Less of a head ache mining for me personally.

Aside from understanding the proof of work system I may do only what smooth advocates...solo mine (with cpus) lol

Would be nice if the smart mining was implemented so those who are using that version could mine XMR and support the network while their cpu cycles are normally idle or not in usage.

[aminorex]

Now what would happen if there were a tight limit on how many new US Dollars could be created a year?  What other government policies might influence the "slosh" of money in a system?  Money reflects a social liquid that is exchanged between humans, and the big problems only happen when the faucet is turned on and left on.  Do you think wealth inequality would *stay* bad or would slowly grow more idea as time went on in a currency with very limited inflation?  Is the nature of Monero: equal access, privacy, and strict limits on creation going to automatically solve the run away debt and inflation problems that we are facing currently?

You could not wipe out debts with inflation, so you could not seize the wealth of the masses, while directing the flow of new issuance to your cronies.  Since the accumulation factors are not centralized, the accumulation in fact tends to be decentralized.  If creation is declining, the regime is inherently deflationary, so that borrowing is inadvisable, and the risk of debtor default is huge, so lending requires prohibitive usurious rates to adjust for risk.  At a near-equilibrium, borrowing becomes feasible again, interest rates decline as the risk of debtor default declines, but until then, rentiers are scarce as hens teeth, and only industry can advance wealth.  During a deflationary phase, the overwhelming trend must be for wealth to disperse through the economy, due to dishoarding on the part of large holders being greater than dishoarding on the part of small hoarders, with hoarding rates limited in proportion to the merit of ones entrepreneurship, industry, or art.  The invisible hand deals from a straight deck.

[americanpegasus]

Do you think the governments will purpose a way to have a "mandatory" re-distribution of wealth and take XMR from people like us who are currently investing in monero as of right now?

Yes, they're called taxes.  

I am expecting to pay heavy taxes on any fortune I make as a result of Monero increasing in value 1,000x to 100,000x from its current levels.  
  
At that point, I will probably become very bitter, start quoting Ayn Rand, and fill my Facebook feed with a nerdy mutation of the Dan Bilzerian lifestyle.  Money changes people.  Embrace what you have now while you are poor and genuine.  

Hopefully I'll also fund that awesome retro video game company I dream of while I'm at it.  I want to rerelease a new 16-bit home system with slightly improved technology (think a love child between the Neo-Geo and the SNES) and extremely easy programming and licensing so anyone can release games for it.  Then I'll pay AAA companies to release brand new titles for it, including 16-bit ports of modern games.  All games will be flash cartridge based, not CD based.  I hope to not only get classics such as Shovel Knight, Castle in the Darkness, Mega Man 9, and Cave Story launched on it, but also I want to establish all new brands and icons synonymous with the PES. 
  
I'm not finished.  We're gonna call it the Pegasus Entertainment System and release a monthly magazine filled with tricks, tips, and reviews of your favorite games.  
 
I'm still not finished.  The pack-in title will be a self-titled Metroidvania where you have competing ficticious brands all trying to sell powerups.  These brands have stocks on a stock market and you buy/sell/trade them with coins you find.  In fact, in order to afford the most powerful upgrades in the game, you'll need to have the power of your investments and compound interest make you wealthy enough.  Also, you'll need to keep up with the in-game newspaper.  If one of your favorite powerup companies goes bankrupt, releases a shitty product, or has a corruption scandal, it could have game wide implications. 
 
Finally we will be a non-profit video game company, that makes charitable donations with any excess funds that may acquire due to sales.  

[aminorex]

From a total value perspective SSDs (of equivalent size) are superior to HDs in almost every respect (reliability, performance, etc.). Thus even if capacity doesn't increase at quite the same rate as it did within the HD era, some increases along with the transition from HD to SSD is still consistent with continued rapid improvements in price-performance ("performance" taken broadly in the case of storage to include size).

3-d takes it from n^2 to n^3.  Well, more like n^2 to k*n^2 now, but in the long run...  The doubling time is then the 2/3 power of the former doubling time.  Could get pretty phat pretty phast.

[aminorex]

If BTC breaks 275 all alts* will get hammered hard. At some point they will bottom (regardless of BTC price action) and then they will bubble.

If BTC goes below 230 I expect XMR to rally hard too.

*(The alts that I have under my trading radar are XMR, BTS, ETH, XRP & a bit NXT - I am afraid that the latter may never bounce, so I am watching only for the moment..)

I am expecting a bit of a downturn after the next run past 270, over a couple/few days.  It could dive to near 255 in the meantime, but on a weekly basis, I expect BTC to go to ~292 over the next lune/seqsuilune before what might be the last pre-halving downleg.  XMR hoarders should accumulate BTC when it drops nearer 250, and spend it on XMR when it nears 290, if that scenario is correct.

[owm123]

Mining is an arms race and I refuse to race for the tiny carrot reward at the end of the race.

Rather just buy whatever it is you are considering mining.

If you're clever, you do both.  Thus making XMR harder to mine.  Thus increasing the value of the XMR you bought, since the supply dries up at prices below the mining cost.

Cleverness has nothing to do with ability to run a mining farm. Money has everything to do with it as you could simply hire someone to set it up for you if you have the money to fund it all.

You bring up a good point as the mining reward decreases in theory your holdings and value of XMR should go up. That may take some time before that happens.

Less of a head ache mining for me personally.

Aside from understanding the proof of work system I may do only what smooth advocates...solo mine (with cpus) lol

Would be nice if the smart mining was implemented so those who are using that version could mine XMR and support the network while their cpu cycles are normally idle or not in usage.

What is smart mining? How would it affect solo cpu mining?