Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

Gold really collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

Are you sure? Because losing 5% in one month is not what I call collapsing.

Well, given I made this post on 8/9/11, Gold: I Smell a Trap, I think I've earned the right to say "yeah, I'm sure".

Well, will you look at that. Nice timing. Do you still hold a single ounce of gold or are you 100% BTC in the BTC/GLD pair?

Sold all the silver and most of the gold. Still retain 2 sleeves of gold coins but that's it. Bitcoin is the future.

I keep offering to sell those 2 sleeves to all the gold bugs who stop by every once in a while claiming they're worth $30000/oz for a mere $15000/oz but not a one of them take me up on the deal.

Haha

I am pretty much in the same situation. I sold most of my gold in early 2013 but rebought some in mid 2014.

Gold is still very nice to balance a portfolio of Stocks and Bonds, unlike BTC it is directly negatively correlated to those.

Actually that negative correlation is now changing to positive correlation as we enter deflation. Go back and look at the charts of the brief deflationary 2008-9. Gold and gold stocks dropped significantly along with stocks and non UST bonds. This time that correlated drop should be even greater. And gold is leading.

You are absolutely right and I took that apparent change into account when I bought the gold. But as I was going for an 10y+ investment and I still think in that timeframe it will work as a buffer on swings.

Only time will tell, but even if it is positively correlated it won't hurt me too much.

You'll only be right if Bitcoin fails. That's not looking too likely imo.

Bitcoin has all the properties of a super money that gold can only aspire to be.  That has to be on your radar.

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[Hfleer]

Gold really collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

Are you sure? Because losing 5% in one month is not what I call collapsing.

Well, given I made this post on 8/9/11, Gold: I Smell a Trap, I think I've earned the right to say "yeah, I'm sure".

Well, will you look at that. Nice timing. Do you still hold a single ounce of gold or are you 100% BTC in the BTC/GLD pair?

Sold all the silver and most of the gold. Still retain 2 sleeves of gold coins but that's it. Bitcoin is the future.

I keep offering to sell those 2 sleeves to all the gold bugs who stop by every once in a while claiming they're worth $30000/oz for a mere $15000/oz but not a one of them take me up on the deal.

Haha

I am pretty much in the same situation. I sold most of my gold in early 2013 but rebought some in mid 2014.

Gold is still very nice to balance a portfolio of Stocks and Bonds, unlike BTC it is directly negatively correlated to those.

Actually that negative correlation is now changing to positive correlation as we enter deflation. Go back and look at the charts of the brief deflationary 2008-9. Gold and gold stocks dropped significantly along with stocks and non UST bonds. This time that correlated drop should be even greater. And gold is leading.

You are absolutely right and I took that apparent change into account when I bought the gold. But as I was going for an 10y+ investment and I still think in that timeframe it will work as a buffer on swings.

Only time will tell, but even if it is positively correlated it won't hurt me too much.

You'll only be right if Bitcoin fails. That's not looking too likely imo.

Bitcoin has all the properties of a super money that gold can only aspire to be.  That has to be on your radar.

I have plenty of BTC. Most normal investors would say I am way overinvested. So I am not too worried if BTC fails or succeeds. I will be fine either way.

[cypherdoc]

Gold really collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

Are you sure? Because losing 5% in one month is not what I call collapsing.

Well, given I made this post on 8/9/11, Gold: I Smell a Trap, I think I've earned the right to say "yeah, I'm sure".

Well, will you look at that. Nice timing. Do you still hold a single ounce of gold or are you 100% BTC in the BTC/GLD pair?

Sold all the silver and most of the gold. Still retain 2 sleeves of gold coins but that's it. Bitcoin is the future.

I keep offering to sell those 2 sleeves to all the gold bugs who stop by every once in a while claiming they're worth $30000/oz for a mere $15000/oz but not a one of them take me up on the deal.

Haha

I am pretty much in the same situation. I sold most of my gold in early 2013 but rebought some in mid 2014.

Gold is still very nice to balance a portfolio of Stocks and Bonds, unlike BTC it is directly negatively correlated to those.

Actually that negative correlation is now changing to positive correlation as we enter deflation. Go back and look at the charts of the brief deflationary 2008-9. Gold and gold stocks dropped significantly along with stocks and non UST bonds. This time that correlated drop should be even greater. And gold is leading.

You are absolutely right and I took that apparent change into account when I bought the gold. But as I was going for an 10y+ investment and I still think in that timeframe it will work as a buffer on swings.

Only time will tell, but even if it is positively correlated it won't hurt me too much.

You'll only be right if Bitcoin fails. That's not looking too likely imo.

Bitcoin has all the properties of a super money that gold can only aspire to be.  That has to be on your radar.

I have plenty of BTC. Most normal investors would say I am way overinvested. So I am not too worried if BTC fails or succeeds. I will be fine either way.

Good on you

[Wekkel]

Unless CBs drop Gold as an asset in their vaults, it will be relevant in the future. Either the real economy will catch up with the financial economy, or the financial economy will meet the real economy (or a combination), eventually.

But the waiting is the hardest part. No panic, no gold rush.

[cypherdoc]

Unless CBs drop Gold as an asset in their vaults, it will be relevant in the future. Either the real economy will catch up with the financial economy, or the financial economy will meet the real economy or a combination), eventually.

But the waiting is the hardest part. No panic, no gold rush.

Ron Paul and others wonder just how much gold exists in that very Feds vault. 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Of course he'd act that way.

When he wanted the investor money, he had to build expectations of returns.

Now that he has the money, he wants to lower expectations of returns to preemptively shrink the size of the angry mob before it forms.

Ah, the old Angry Mob Management^TM.

[thezerg]

The trend seems to be tapering off, but it's still alive. Meanwhile Ethereum seems to be taking a "money doesn't matter"/"blockchains are a friggin' database technology" stance even after their huge crowdsale.

Of course he'd act that way.

When he wanted the investor money, he had to build expectations of returns.

Now that he has the money, he wants to lower expectations of returns to preemptively shrink the size of the angry mob before it forms.

Biggest legal (but unmoral) con in Bitcoin Land to date.  I will make something (or maybe not) and sell coins for BTC.  And database tech rocks -

19 year old kid might be able to code but has a long way to go to understand how the real world works.

Actually, Vitalik is smarter than all of you. All he has to do to make huge returns for Ethereum is go to the beach and do nothing with the 20k or so coins he's holding and watch them appreciate.

No, it did not take a genius to realize that a natural extension of Bitcoin is to make it Turing complete.  In fact, as soon as an engineer sees any language his next question is "how powerful is it?"  In fact, Satoshi's restraint is interesting in that context, especially his restraint on allowing the definition of other currencies.  I wonder if he felt that that feature would attract the eye of too many three letter agencies...

Its not intelligence but morality that restrains many of us. 

I don't sell (much) at the tops.  I don't want to be known as the guy who bilked lots of suckers out of $ if Bitcoin fails.  I want to be known as a guy who identified BTC's potential as a force for positive social change through economics early and invested accordingly.

[sidhujag]

Stocks up with dxy hmm

[sidhujag]

The trend seems to be tapering off, but it's still alive. Meanwhile Ethereum seems to be taking a "money doesn't matter"/"blockchains are a friggin' database technology" stance even after their huge crowdsale.

Of course he'd act that way.

When he wanted the investor money, he had to build expectations of returns.

Now that he has the money, he wants to lower expectations of returns to preemptively shrink the size of the angry mob before it forms.

Biggest legal (but unmoral) con in Bitcoin Land to date.  I will make something (or maybe not) and sell coins for BTC.  And database tech rocks -

19 year old kid might be able to code but has a long way to go to understand how the real world works.

Actually, Vitalik is smarter than all of you. All he has to do to make huge returns for Ethereum is go to the beach and do nothing with the 20k or so coins he's holding and watch them appreciate.

No, it did not take a genius to realize that a natural extension of Bitcoin is to make it Turing complete.  In fact, as soon as an engineer sees any language his next question is "how powerful is it?"  In fact, Satoshi's restraint is interesting in that context, especially his restraint on allowing the definition of other currencies.  I wonder if he felt that that feature would attract the eye of too many three letter agencies...

Its not intelligence but morality that restrains many of us. 

I don't sell (much) at the tops.  I don't want to be known as the guy who bilked lots of suckers out of $ if Bitcoin fails.  I want to be known as a guy who identified BTC's potential as a force for positive social change through economics early and invested accordingly.

I think he probably left it out due to complexity of thoroughly testing and left it up to the world to figure out.. If it has value do you think bitcoin can fork to introduce turing complete script ops?

[rocks]

embedding the hash of UTXO in the block headers and retaining only the last few hundred blocks is being experimented with as a client option.

Good to know.

screw that, i want direct access to a copy of the entire blockchain at all times.  

No one will deny you that access on an open network should you wish it ... destruction of tx history has a myriad of benefits, and risks (that can be mitigated).

Yes. The power of Bitcoin is enhanced by in-built flexibility. Many nodes will always have and always want the full blockchain, many will be happier with the UTXO set secured by hashes in the main-chain, and many users will be OK with SPV only.

Just because alternative models are available, and can work concurrently with earlier implementations, does not mean everyone jumps ship to one model.

This is exactly why I like UTXO hashes embedded in blocks. It does not preclude nodes from performing full chain scans, it simply extends and provides additional mechanisms to participate in the P2P network.

With UTXO hashes you could think of bitcoin extending to 3 types of nodes, where today we only have two. They would be:

1) SPV clients - Light-clients, do not protect/valid network, protect own private keys only
2) Full nodes - Full participants on P2P network, protect and valid the current ledger only (which is all that is needed to be a node)
3) Archival nodes - Full participants on P2P network, protect and valid the full historical journal (as Marcus called it)

UTXO hashes would enable many more people to participate as P2P nodes and actively add protection to the current ledger. This does not stop several archival nodes from existing who would act as maintainers of the historical journal for prosperity and validation.

By creating this division more people/nodes can participate which improves bitcoin's security.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Meanwhile, US Dollar Index is about to cross 100.

[thezerg]

The trend seems to be tapering off, but it's still alive. Meanwhile Ethereum seems to be taking a "money doesn't matter"/"blockchains are a friggin' database technology" stance even after their huge crowdsale.

Of course he'd act that way.

When he wanted the investor money, he had to build expectations of returns.

Now that he has the money, he wants to lower expectations of returns to preemptively shrink the size of the angry mob before it forms.

Biggest legal (but unmoral) con in Bitcoin Land to date.  I will make something (or maybe not) and sell coins for BTC.  And database tech rocks -

19 year old kid might be able to code but has a long way to go to understand how the real world works.

Actually, Vitalik is smarter than all of you. All he has to do to make huge returns for Ethereum is go to the beach and do nothing with the 20k or so coins he's holding and watch them appreciate.

No, it did not take a genius to realize that a natural extension of Bitcoin is to make it Turing complete.  In fact, as soon as an engineer sees any language his next question is "how powerful is it?"  In fact, Satoshi's restraint is interesting in that context, especially his restraint on allowing the definition of other currencies.  I wonder if he felt that that feature would attract the eye of too many three letter agencies...

Its not intelligence but morality that restrains many of us. 

I don't sell (much) at the tops.  I don't want to be known as the guy who bilked lots of suckers out of $ if Bitcoin fails.  I want to be known as a guy who identified BTC's potential as a force for positive social change through economics early and invested accordingly.

I think he probably left it out due to complexity of thoroughly testing and left it up to the world to figure out.. If it has value do you think bitcoin can fork to introduce turing complete script ops?

Right and also to emphasize the rarity of btc.  And so the system doesn't smell too strongly of a method to issue unregulated securities.  But the real problem is not turning complete but getting data to run the program on.  Or more accurately getting trust free consensus on input data.  If you use an oracle to supply the data that oracle might as well just execute the algorithm.   Data like the cost of btc in usd or who won the superbowl.  I know how to do the former but not the latter.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I think he probably left it out due to complexity of thoroughly testing and left it up to the world to figure out.. If it has value do you think bitcoin can fork to introduce turing complete script ops?

Full Turing complete scripting can easily be done on a sidechain, in fact it will most likely be one of the first implementations, i.e. a next gen 'ethereum' sidechain, without the Appcoin necessitating wonky economic justifactions.

BTW: Vitalik is not in charge of the treasury over at ethereum, he's just a useful starry-eyed wunder-kid genius front guy ... the truth is stranger than fiction.

[HeliKopterBen]

Unless CBs drop Gold as an asset in their vaults, it will be relevant in the future. Either the real economy will catch up with the financial economy, or the financial economy will meet the real economy or a combination), eventually.

But the waiting is the hardest part. No panic, no gold rush.

Ron Paul and others wonder just how much gold exists in that very Feds vault. 

We may find out that the US government sold bitcoin near the bottom (US Marshals auctions) and bought (or at least held) gold near the top.  Typical

[tabnloz]

Unless CBs drop Gold as an asset in their vaults, it will be relevant in the future. Either the real economy will catch up with the financial economy, or the financial economy will meet the real economy or a combination), eventually.

But the waiting is the hardest part. No panic, no gold rush.

Ron Paul and others wonder just how much gold exists in that very Feds vault. 

We may find out that the US government sold bitcoin near the bottom (US Marshals auctions) and bought (or at least held) gold near the top.  Typical

The Browns Bottom equivalent?

[iCEBREAKER]

Actually, Vitalik is smarter than all of you. All he has to do to make huge returns for Ethereum is go to the beach and do nothing with the 20k or so coins he's holding and watch them appreciate.

And sell out to Oracle for a giant pile of fiat.

[uki]

Meanwhile, US Dollar Index is about to cross 100.

Looks toppish to me. Two important levels 100 (psychological) and 101.50.
Expect a correction from there. Gold doesn't look that bad so far.

[sidhujag]

Meanwhile, US Dollar Index is about to cross 100.

Looks toppish to me. Two important levels 100 (psychological) and 101.50.
Expect a correction from there. Gold doesn't look that bad so far.

Looks topish? lol check the monthly.. its prob about half way through

[Erdogan]

Keynes, a homo sex maniac:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/john-maynard-keynes-new-biography-reveals-shocking-details-about-the-economists-sex-life-10101971.html

It is quite amusing.

[Melbustus]

...

No, it did not take a genius to realize that a natural extension of Bitcoin is to make it Turing complete.  In fact, as soon as an engineer sees any language his next question is "how powerful is it?"  In fact, Satoshi's restraint is interesting in that context, especially his restraint on allowing the definition of other currencies.  I wonder if he felt that that feature would attract the eye of too many three letter agencies...
...

Interesting - thanks for posting. I always assumed that all of those initial-state decisions had been made *before* Satoshi posted the whitepaper. I guess because of that comment he made in that list thread to the effect of "I'm almost ready to post the code."

He *was* just about ready to post the code.  This was a debate about what value an already-defined constant ought to have.  In fact I've already posted an archive of his code from just a few *days* later in another thread here for historical interest. 

Hal and I were essentially giving it a last-minute looking over to see if we thought there was any way to attack it.  I have the impression that Hal communicated with Satoshi a lot more than I did, but he was looking at a  much tougher problem.  The blockchain structure is essentially a mathematical proof -- very straightforward, you follow it and you can say with reasonable certainty that it's right or not.  But a scripting language is generative.  And generative structures present exponentially more attack surfaces. 

Re Finney - if he was blocking bitcoin op-codes, I wonder what he would've thought of Ethereum's scripting lang.

You're kidding right?  Ethereum's scripting language is limited only by the amount of steps it will run a calculation.  Hal would have pitched a fit about the Denial-of-Service possibilities.

(and I had to ask if you were Ray cuz your early posts on here were signed "Edward")

Yeah, I made up a fake person because at first I didn't want people here to know who I was.  I was kind of afraid they'd get freaky about it.