[XMR] Monero Speculation

[klee]

Thank you for this explanation, but still dont understand anything. Could you ELI5?

Sure! What is the part you don't understand, how RSI works, how P&F or both?

Did you read dEBRUYNE's link on P&F?
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/081303.asp

For RSI:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp


So long story short, RSI alone gave an indication in 1d zoom that we are probably oversold.

So how to find more clues? Enter P&F.

RSI's chart can be converted to P&F format (I did it) where we can see more clearly the momentum (this is the power of P&F charts).
When an X column exceeds the previous one (the same applies for O columns) we have 'positive' momentum! So in the chart I made we see this happening.

In addition we double bottomed (2 successive O columns in the same price) before the X breakout and below the 30 price, which gave us more power to the jump upwards.

Can't explain it better, I hope someone else can help if you still have questions.

Later I will update the chart with the new data from yesterday's close price...

[owm123]

Thank you for this explanation, but still dont understand anything. Could you ELI5?

Sure! What is the part you don't understand, how RSI works, how P&F or both?

Did you read dEBRUYNE's link on P&F?
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/081303.asp

For RSI:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp


So long story short, RSI alone gave an indication in 1d zoom that we are probably oversold.

So how to find more clues? Enter P&F.

RSI's chart can be converted to P&F format (I did it) where we can see more clearly the momentum (this is the power of P&F charts).
When an X column exceeds the previous one (the same applies for O columns) we have 'positive' momentum! So in the chart I made we see this happening.

In addition we double bottomed (2 successive O columns in the same price) before the X breakout and below the 30 price, which gave us more power to the jump upwards.

Can't explain it better, I hope someone else can help if you still have questions.

Later I will update the chart with the new data from yesterday's close price...

Thx. I will check the link. But, just shortly, wanted to know whatever the graphs show is good or bad for the monero?

[klee]

Thank you for this explanation, but still dont understand anything. Could you ELI5?

Sure! What is the part you don't understand, how RSI works, how P&F or both?

Did you read dEBRUYNE's link on P&F?
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/081303.asp

For RSI:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp


So long story short, RSI alone gave an indication in 1d zoom that we are probably oversold.

So how to find more clues? Enter P&F.

RSI's chart can be converted to P&F format (I did it) where we can see more clearly the momentum (this is the power of P&F charts).
When an X column exceeds the previous one (the same applies for O columns) we have 'positive' momentum! So in the chart I made we see this happening.

In addition we double bottomed (2 successive O columns in the same price) before the X breakout and below the 30 price, which gave us more power to the jump upwards.

Can't explain it better, I hope someone else can help if you still have questions.

Later I will update the chart with the new data from yesterday's close price...

Thx. I will check the link. But, just shortly, wanted to know whatever the graphs show is good or bad for the monero?

Good! Actually, I think only XMR & XRP will be bullish short term (and maybe BTS).

[klee]

Guys apologies for the mess but it seems that either my data fetch engine or Polo API is buggy!

This is the correct RSI chart (actually it was the reason I found the bug):




Fortunately this chart is also bullish!   


Again apologies for the inconvenience...

[GingerAle]

So, after reading yet another bullshit article about private blockchains and industries using blockchains without bitcoin -

http://www.fastcompany.com/3051679/innovation-agents/the-future-of-bitcoin-isnt-bitcoin-its-bigger-than-that

I was reminded how valuable the Monero network will eventually become once these industries realize a few things about the new digital era. All of these ventures touting private blockchains or privileged access really, in my opinion, don't understand the utility of a trustless consensus ledger. However, they apparently understand the weakness of the public blockchain in that they forfeit sovereignty of their information to the public database. This has to be the only reason they seek to develop their own private blockchains. These companies could buy all the bitcoin they wanted to use the bitcoin blockchain as their ledger. They could also buy mining farms to control the protocol of the consensus network.

Thus, I speculate that once these companies fail in their experiments with centralized blockchains (i.e., they implement them, and then years down the line party A modifies the ledger that is used between parties A B and C in order for A to profit), they'll realize that opaque blockchains with user-controlled access to information are the real solution. A trustless consensus ledger verified by any and all participants without any loss of information sovereignty.

Perhaps we should contact Arvind Narayanan or Paul Chou and get their opinion on the value of Monero.

Some experts say the actual requirements banks have could be satisfied by data structures other than blockchains—once banks control who has access to a shared ledger, they could really rely on pre-bitcoin technology to achieve the same goals, argued Arvind Narayanan, an assistant professor of computer science at Princeton University, in a recent blog post.

Indeed, banks might be better off in many cases just sticking with traditional database technology, says Paul Chou, the CEO of LedgerX, a startup building trading infrastructure for bitcoin derivatives.

"If you restrict access to trusted parties, then an intelligently managed shared database is a fast and proven solution—there is no need for a blockchain," he wrote in an email to Fast Company.

[klee]

We might have bottomed:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg12670950#msg12670950

I never understood how to read those graphs... What do they mean, and how can you tell if something has "bottomed out" and can only go up from there?

Ok, so we have the 1D RSI indicator of XMR in Point & Figure format.

RSI gives us an estimation that the market is oversold/overbought ( =<30 and >=70 respectively). If you go at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc try to find the RSI at Settings -> Indicator.

IMO, for alt coins the two timeframes that make sense (especially in XMR's case) are the 1d & 3d. So configure accordingly the chart.

So we see there that we have broken the 30 level for good and the price bounced above it briefly (1D) and now is standing almost on top of it. If we manage to continue rising towards the 50 level it means that we bottomed.

Enter P&F. The difference in the P&F RSI format is that we see more clearly that the RSI made a double bottom at 29 and broke out at 36 (at least when I drew the chart, afterwards it went back to 34). That is a bullish signal, meaning that the RSI 'price' managed to overcome resistance and it showed rising momentum. This combined with the fact that below 30 the market is considered oversold, are IMHO bullish signs.

As for the XMR P&F chart (1d CLOSE, log scale, 1% box size, reversal 3):
 
                                                            IGNORE the chart




We reversed from 0.00154911 at 0.00161201.
Support is 0.00156460-0.00158025, sell signal if we close below 0.00154911 (0.00153377).

Bearish resistance at 0.00174558-0.00176303, 0.00215123-0.00217274.

Watch out for the double top at 0.00221642 (strong resistance).

Heavy resistance between 0.00226097-0.00235277, free at 0.00237630 (provided that we will continue in the same X column).

EDIT: Forgot to mention that the buy signal is at 0.00179847

Correct chart:



Breakout if we close daily above 0.00161201

[cAPSLOCK]

Breakout if we close daily above 0.00161201

When is "closing" exactly in GMT?

[klee]

Breakout if we close daily above 0.00161201

When is "closing" exactly in GMT?

I follow Poloniex closing time, which is 3.00 AM in Greece (GMT +2). So that makes it at 1.00 GMT?

[Bagatell]

These companies could buy all the bitcoin they wanted to use the bitcoin blockchain as their ledger.

No they can't. The supply is limited and minuscule in comparison to the volume these guys usually deal in.

[cAPSLOCK]

Breakout if we close daily above 0.00161201

When is "closing" exactly in GMT?

I follow Poloniex closing time, which is 3.00 AM in Greece (GMT +2). So that makes it at 1.00 GMT?

Thanks.  I have never been able to really determine that.

[dnaleor]

Monkey is seeing 4 more weeks of XBTUSD strength (and likely XMRXBT weakness) before a technical turn. On the other hand, DXY strength is likely to return in 3 days time, which could nip the XBTUSD run if it is very strong -- and it is looking likely to be very strong.  That would reverse the significance of the correlation, and be bullish for XMRUSD, XMRXBT alike.  If that happens I might squeeze XMR, just for fun.  Personally, I moved a lot today:  Filled in wheat at 504.2, short GCZ5, short SPZ5, short CLZ5, short EEM, all for a 1-2 week swing.  I might short EWP, EWQ as well if I see any strength over the next few days, but that seems unlikely.

I'm getting me some popcorn already

[dEBRUYNE]

Breakout if we close daily above 0.00161201

When is "closing" exactly in GMT?

I follow Poloniex closing time, which is 3.00 AM in Greece (GMT +2). So that makes it at 1.00 GMT?

Thanks.  I have never been able to really determine that.

I think poloniex closes at 00:00 UTC, since they use that as server time as well. Wisdom always closes at 02:00 (GMT+2), so that would make sense.

FWIW: Offers decreased from ~67k last night to ~37k today, might explain all the mini walls around 0.0016. In other words, someone could be protecting his short position. Alternative explanation, the offerer just took away a chunk of his offers.

[aminorex]

I'm getting me some popcorn already

It's almost always a waste of time and money to move markets, any markets, unless you are doing something evil (which I abjure, especially when I think it is justified by a good end) but it is definitely entertaining, and a perverse relief from being pushed around in the vasty currents of interbank fx like so much medical waste in a pacific typhoon.  Not knowing if or when is part and parcel of the suspense.

[aminorex]

These companies could buy all the bitcoin they wanted to use the bitcoin blockchain as their ledger.

No they can't. The supply is limited and minuscule in comparison to the volume these guys usually deal in.

"Price fixes everything."

[Bagatell]

These companies could buy all the bitcoin they wanted to use the bitcoin blockchain as their ledger.

No they can't. The supply is limited and minuscule in comparison to the volume these guys usually deal in.

"Price fixes everything."

Price varies with time. Can you afford to wait?

[aminorex]

Price varies with time. Can you afford to wait?

Yes.  Can you afford the costs of impatience?

[Bagatell]

Price varies with time. Can you afford to wait?

Yes.  Can you afford the costs of impatience?

I have maybe a decade of my three score and ten years left (barring anything Aubrey De Grey might get right). I suspect you have rather more. Our perspectives will naturally differ.

[SmoothCurves]

If XMR is still around in 2020. What do you expect the price (in Bitcoin) to be by then?

[OrientA]

If XMR is still around in 2020. What do you expect the price (in Bitcoin) to be by then?

I will be happy if the price is 0.01 BTC.

[macsga]

Price varies with time. Can you afford to wait?

Yes.  Can you afford the costs of impatience?

I have maybe a decade of my three score and ten years left (barring anything Aubrey De Grey might get right). I suspect you have rather more. Our perspectives will naturally differ.

[/offtopic]
Hmm, makes me wonder if he will finally make it. The reverse aging experiments have officially started with two techniques that were developed OUTSIDE of the USofA ('cause Bioethics). So; let me hope that we're actually closer to that.
[offtopic]

If XMR is still around in 2020. What do you expect the price (in Bitcoin) to be by then?

I will be happy if the price is 0.01 BTC.

If the price of BTC is what I think it will be by 2020, then I can only hope it's 0.001!!!!