Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[kano]

"Now offering same-day global delivery"

https://i.imgur.com/9v1eXki.jpg

Was that Columbia?

[plasmoske]

Nope that's the Atlantis

[sickpig]

"Now offering same-day global delivery"

https://i.imgur.com/9v1eXki.jpg

Was that Columbia?

kano sorry for pestering, did they eventually contact you asking for a shipment address?

[noodle73]

Definitions of ROI aside, when it comes to the question of getting your money back, don't forget that the miners themselves have some intrinsic value too.
Yes, the Genesis block predictions are gloomy, but even on the Nov 1 start date you get pretty close to break even. If after 6 months you say "This hasn't delivered for me" then stick your miner on eBay. As we've seen, someone will always buy it and probably pay too much too. That may well be enough to make all the difference between turning a profit and not. You get away with the shirt still on your back and at worst, you've turned a pile of banknotes into bitcoins without wasting money on third party commission

[klee]

8 

[GhanaGamboy]

Definitions of ROI aside, when it comes to the question of getting your money back, don't forget that the miners themselves have some intrinsic value too.
Yes, the Genesis block predictions are gloomy, but even on the Nov 1 start date you get pretty close to break even. If after 6 months you say "This hasn't delivered for me" then stick your miner on eBay.

The problem is, after 6 months these will likely cost 10x times less (and unused)

[KS]

IF Day 1 & Day 2 orders are shipping in September
  AND everything else is shipping in October THEN

there are 2 possible scenarios:
1) day1 is Friday 27th, day2 is Monday 30th, so everything beyond day2 is October
2) they ship day1 for ex. on Monday 16th, ship day2 on Monday 23th and rest in October

I remember that they mentioned continuous delivery, not batch based.
So scenario 2 would mean boxes are ready to ship, difficulty increases, but they are not shipping them... oh boy, ppl will freak out and travel to Stockholm knocking on KnC's door to get their pre-paid miners I guess.

This implies from my point of view that scenario 1 is the more likely one.
Then I'm curious to see how ppl will behave when difficulty increases during September, I'd not be surprised if many buyers will cancel orders.

Please point out in case I'm wrong or missing sth.

I asked knc about this, if there was any delay between September and October shipments, this was there response,

Hi,

 

We are aiming to ship every order that has been paid for as soon as it is produced according to the shipping queue. Our first orders are expected to ship in September and we will then continue to ship out the orders working down the shipping queue list.

 

Let us know if you have further questions.

Everyone is assuming mid Sept.  I'm assuming early Sept.

Forever the optimist, don't let me down!

I'm going to assume late Sept.

But then again that's just the pessimist in me coming out.

Given they were so keen on getting at least 500 units sold, I would suppose they've organized for one batch of 500 with "on-hand" supplies while the rest of the orders will be done in a "just-in-time" fashion with continuous ordering of parts.

I don't see why they would not ship their units as soon as they have them on hand either. Shipping units sooner will translate to more (new) sales as the units will have a better chance of breaking even in BTC terms.

[kano]

"Now offering same-day global delivery"

https://i.imgur.com/9v1eXki.jpg

Was that Columbia?

kano sorry for pestering, did they eventually contact you asking for a shipment address?

Expect an answer of No (which it is at the moment)
That's basically why I posted that (earlier) comment.
Of course if that ever changed I'd say so - but I no longer expect that.

[noodle73]

Definitions of ROI aside, when it comes to the question of getting your money back, don't forget that the miners themselves have some intrinsic value too.
Yes, the Genesis block predictions are gloomy, but even on the Nov 1 start date you get pretty close to break even. If after 6 months you say "This hasn't delivered for me" then stick your miner on eBay.

The problem is, after 6 months these will likely cost 10x times less (and unused)

Oh just look at block erupters, people are still paying far too much for those!
People are putting such faith in the Genesis Block calculator. It's like the guys who drive their cars into the middle of a field because "The sat nav says that was where the road went." It's just the coarsest prediction of the future based on the recent past. There are so many moving targets here to potentially throw it off course. A bitcoin price crash, a bitcoin price spike. But we don't worry about that because the page doesn't give us the option to enter a price volatility variable. What about a surprise change in difficulty? These all make the difference between a column of blue numbers and a column of red ones. We just don't know what's going to happen and neither does the Genesis Block calculator. For sure I think profitability is going to be a close run thing. It could go either way and a few days on delivery will make all the difference. But even if luck goes against me and I end up under water, I don't think I'm going to lose more than a few percent of the cost price and flogging the miner at the end will get me back pretty close to even.

It's a ride, it's a risk, I'm in it for the engagement and the throw of the dice.

[sickpig]

kano sorry for pestering, did they eventually contact you asking for a shipment address?

Expect an answer of No (which it is at the moment)
That's basically why I posted that comment.
Of course if that ever changed I'd say so - but I no longer expect that.

many thanks for the update.

at this point I'm quite worried.

I'm quite sure they will make cgminer work with their machines (they already said that the mockup using the altera is already working with cgminer, if memory serves).

What it seems strange to me is that I was expecting a different behaviour from KnC, something like sending you an email saying: "sorry for the false alarm
we have changed our mind, we don't need your service anymore, blah blah...", just saying.

[BigLad]

I've just found out that seemingly they are going to use cgminer and they will ship pre-configured (with Pool, Worker ID etc) so that the buyer only has to plug it in and turn it on.  These settings can be changed via a web interface but SSH to the underlying linux can be done but may have support implications!

[eve]

kano sorry for pestering, did they eventually contact you asking for a shipment address?

Expect an answer of No (which it is at the moment)
That's basically why I posted that comment.
Of course if that ever changed I'd say so - but I no longer expect that.

many thanks for the update.

at this point I'm quite worried.

I'm quite sure they will make cgminer work with their machines (they already said that the mockup using the altera is already working with cgminer, if memory serves).

What it seems strange to me is that I was expecting a different behaviour from KnC, something like sending you an email saying: "sorry for the false alarm
we have changed our mind, we don't need your service anymore, blah blah...", just saying.

We should ALL be worry except Knc, because they already has our money. With No Updates by this week we should really be concern as to where the heck is the 28nm Chips?

Where are the freaking chip.    Should we Go for Refund.?

A Chicken without a head would go no where, the chip is the brain for our bitcoin miner.

[crumbs]

...
There are so many moving targets here to potentially throw it off course. A bitcoin price crash,

You'll be mining the same number of bitcoins, only they'll be worth less.  That's a fail.

a bitcoin price spike.

Better, but unless you mine more bitcoins than you would have, had if you bought bitcoins directly instead of buying a miner?  Another fail.

But we don't worry about that because the page doesn't give us the option to enter a price volatility variable.

That's because it is irrelevant.  Simply assume that you have bought bitcoin instead of the miner, and hold that bitcoin.  Your bitcoin will be on the same roller coaster, so you can factor out the fluctuating price.

What about a surprise change in difficulty?

If you mean difficulty going up, that's no surprise.  All the preorders & all the chips hitting the market is a one-way sign for difficulty.  The "S" in ASIC stands for specific, these babies can't be turned into gaming rigs -- they could only be mined or thrown out.  Unlike GPUs and CPUs before them, they can't do anything else.

These all make the difference between a column of blue numbers and a column of red ones. We just don't know what's going to happen and neither does the Genesis Block calculator.

True enough, we can't say the sun will rise tomorrow & be 100% certain.  Though it's reasonable to bank on it, and not the unlikely chance that The Spaghetti Monster will decide to shut down the universe.

For sure I think profitability is going to be a close run thing. It could go either way and a few days on delivery will make all the difference. But even if luck goes against me and I end up under water, I don't think I'm going to lose more than a few percent of the cost price and flogging the miner at the end will get me back pretty close to even.

"Flogging the miner at the end" is irrelevant.  There isn't much difference between making a nickel a month & 6 cents a month.  See difficulty curve for explanation.

It's a ride, it's a risk, I'm in it for the engagement and the throw of the dice.

If it's fun, it's fun.  Can't argue with that.

[Xialla]

Where are the freaking chip.    Should we Go for Refund.?

of course, you can ask for refund anytime before day of shipment.

[noodle73]

Alright, alright.
I'm just saying don't get seduced by precision over accuracy.
The calculator gives these wonderfully precise and believable numbers, but they're just a calculated guess and they won't be accurate.
Whatever it comes up with now, -$546, +$1200, whatever, the reality will be different.

[-Redacted-]

Where are the freaking chip.    Should we Go for Refund.?

of course, you can ask for refund anytime before day of shipment.

The timeline that someone worked out calculated that chips would arrive the second week in September.

[Xialla]

The timeline that someone worked out calculated that chips would arrive the second week in September.

ahh, it will be so cool, if 1st day of shipment will be sometimes during second week of Septmber #wetdream

[btc_uzr]

I hope I didn't rile you up bitcoinorama....I have actually read every single page in this thread and then some.....and I just don't ever recall you stating that you had purchased a unit, or rather ordered it because purchase would imply delivered/received.

Anyhow, I have ORDERED a Saturn from KNC....although it is not day 1 or day 2, it was ordered very shortly after, so maybe "day 3" for me,
HOW ABOUT YOU?

No worries. I said before I was looking to purchase one or two units, I wasn't putting all my eggs in one basket. Sensible approach. I will consider more once the device is proven and we know how the network is behaving.

By now I expected all Avalons and bulk chips to be hashing. I'm still shocked and to be fair annoyed for those involved that they aren't. I also expected Bitfury to be onboard and in the wild by mid-August.

I never planned for BFL, neither am I holding my breath there. I'm also not expecting another 28nm entrant till at least December, but I maybe wrong.

I don't feel comfortable 'throwing money' at something with so many unknowns. I feel safe if KnC deliver on time we will be in profit before any real completion surfaces, but then I won't be shocked by any surprises after the past 6 months.

what is the expected ship date for the July orders? To the best of your knowledge. Is it September or October.
Thanks for your time,
Brian

Here is what has been stated in previous time lines, and this is what they say they are still on track with:

Day 1 & Day 2 orders are shipping in September.

Everything else is shipping in October.

[DPoS]

...

a bitcoin price spike.

Better, but unless you mine more bitcoins than you would have, had if you bought bitcoins directly instead of buying a miner?  Another fail.

This is the most repeated snobbish falsehood on bitcointalk

Tell me where you can easily buy bitcoins with a credit card to the same extent that you can buy a miner?   If you could, what are the fees involved?

add that all up (if possible) and give me the bottom line comparison


And I won't even bring up the 'virgin coins' angle where there are people that will accept half ROI to make their own coins if you know what I mean

[Bitcoinorama]

We should ALL be worry except Knc, because they already has our money. With No Updates by this week we should really be concern as to where the heck is the 28nm Chips?

Where are the freaking chip.    Should we Go for Refund.?

A Chicken without a head would go no where, the chip is the brain for our bitcoin miner.