Martin Armstrong Discussion

[psp777]

Remember this quote, "Once we break out above the 2018 high, we should expect to test the 30,000 level by 2021 if not 35,000 by then."  Well ,not there on the DOW but other indexes we are. ON the brink of war and this bubble will pop. Summer solstice tomorrow - a day to be remembered.

Oh what about the trade of the century? I thought it was addressed on here a while back?

my 2 cents: Quadruple witching on the 21st of June, war looming, economy week, bank index selling off,

Look out below...is that in the arrays?

[1714117080]

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[1714117080]

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[1714117080]

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[MA_talk]

He covered quite a few bases there, just in case one or two didn't happen...

What did transpire: nothing happened.

Here is another article, this time from March 2019:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/emerging-markets/the-financial-panic-of-2019/

And that tried and tested formula I explained is on show for everyone to see:

Turkey’s stand-off with investors has unnerved traders globally, pushing the world ever closer to a major FINANCIAL PANIC come this May 2019... There is a major liquidity crisis brewing that could pop in May 2019. European Banks have loaded their portfolios with real estate loans thanks to quantitative easing and negative interest rates, and emerging market debt.

This is a global financial panic unfolding on a grand scale. This is why we selected May for the WEC in Rome.


Ah yes, the crescendo that always times with the WEC. The WEC is over before the month is out, meaning attendees cannot directly question the fabricated forecast to MA's face. How predictable and it requires no AI... IT IS ALL MADE UP TO SELL THE CONFERENCES. The "urgency" of the whole situation panics people into forking out huge sums for conference attendance.

Here's another forecast, from my brain, not an invented AI machine: the next WEC will be in Jan 2020 and in either Europe or Singapore. Await the hysterical articles building up to Jan 2020. Too predictable...

According to Armstrong, there is a major financial panic in May 2019.

Gumbi, do you want to explain HOW the May drop is a major financial panic, when it's barely half of the drop from Oct to Dec of 2018?  Dow jones dropped 7.2%.  HOW in the world would you classify that as a panic?  I wouldn't even call the drop in Oct to Dec of 2018 as panic, which is more than double of that.

If May is called a significant financial panic, then Armstrong have not been able to call many panics in the past.

So that's what WEC attendees got?  A financial panic of 7.2% that is erased in less than a month.  What kind of panic is that?

[AnonymousCoder]

Fake Daily Reversals

I am just looking at a daily premium report a perplexed friend has sent me.

It contains an inconsistency that I would encourage you to watch:

THE SOCRATES PREMIUM DAILY COMMENTARY, THE CASH US$ INDEX AS OF THE CLOSE OF Wed. Jun. 19, 2019: THE CASH US$ INDEX closed today at 97115
...
The last Reversal elected in this market was a Daily Bearish on Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.


The question was: I cannot remember that reversal. Where was it?

That is easy to check. The same report has a daily reversal table. I checked the reversal tables of Mon. Jun. 17, 2019, and Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

One would expect that the elected reversal would be in the previous report of Mon. Jun. 17, and that it would be missing in the report of Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

No such thing. In both reports, the reversal tables are identical, so the elected reversal was not one of them, and the closest reversals are far away from the closing price.

This means if you just read the report without checking, it looks really nice in a way that Socrates is electing reversals successfully. Unfortunately, these are previously unpublished fake reversals, and their values are not known, either.

Are they manufactured to make Socrates look good?

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[Gumbi]

Fake Daily Reversals

I am just looking at a daily premium report a perplexed friend has sent me.

It contains an inconsistency that I would encourage you to watch:

THE SOCRATES PREMIUM DAILY COMMENTARY, THE CASH US$ INDEX AS OF THE CLOSE OF Wed. Jun. 19, 2019: THE CASH US$ INDEX closed today at 97115
...
The last Reversal elected in this market was a Daily Bearish on Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.


The question was: I cannot remember that reversal. Where was it?

That is easy to check. The same report has a daily reversal table. I checked the reversal tables of Mon. Jun. 17, 2019, and Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

One would expect that the elected reversal would be in the previous report of Mon. Jun. 17, and that it would be missing in the report of Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

No such thing. In both reports, the reversal tables are identical, so the elected reversal was not one of them, and the closest reversals are far away from the closing price.

This means if you just read the report without checking, it looks really nice in a way that Socrates is electing reversals successfully. Unfortunately, these are previously unpublished fake reversals, and their values are not known, either.

Are they manufactured to make Socrates look good?

lol fake reversal.  reversals can be generated and elected on the same day.

[aieng]

Fake Daily Reversals

I am just looking at a daily premium report a perplexed friend has sent me.

It contains an inconsistency that I would encourage you to watch:

THE SOCRATES PREMIUM DAILY COMMENTARY, THE CASH US$ INDEX AS OF THE CLOSE OF Wed. Jun. 19, 2019: THE CASH US$ INDEX closed today at 97115
...
The last Reversal elected in this market was a Daily Bearish on Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.


The question was: I cannot remember that reversal. Where was it?

That is easy to check. The same report has a daily reversal table. I checked the reversal tables of Mon. Jun. 17, 2019, and Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

One would expect that the elected reversal would be in the previous report of Mon. Jun. 17, and that it would be missing in the report of Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

No such thing. In both reports, the reversal tables are identical, so the elected reversal was not one of them, and the closest reversals are far away from the closing price.

This means if you just read the report without checking, it looks really nice in a way that Socrates is electing reversals successfully. Unfortunately, these are previously unpublished fake reversals, and their values are not known, either.

Are they manufactured to make Socrates look good?

Please contact me in private. From some reason I cant send you private message

[AnonymousCoder]

Fake Daily Reversals

I am just looking at a daily premium report a perplexed friend has sent me.

It contains an inconsistency that I would encourage you to watch:

THE SOCRATES PREMIUM DAILY COMMENTARY, THE CASH US$ INDEX AS OF THE CLOSE OF Wed. Jun. 19, 2019: THE CASH US$ INDEX closed today at 97115
...
The last Reversal elected in this market was a Daily Bearish on Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.


The question was: I cannot remember that reversal. Where was it?

That is easy to check. The same report has a daily reversal table. I checked the reversal tables of Mon. Jun. 17, 2019, and Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

One would expect that the elected reversal would be in the previous report of Mon. Jun. 17, and that it would be missing in the report of Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

No such thing. In both reports, the reversal tables are identical, so the elected reversal was not one of them, and the closest reversals are far away from the closing price.

This means if you just read the report without checking, it looks really nice in a way that Socrates is electing reversals successfully. Unfortunately, these are previously unpublished fake reversals, and their values are not known, either.

Are they manufactured to make Socrates look good?

lol fake reversal. reversals can be generated and elected on the same day.

This is not something to laugh about.

Then it is a Revision Signal because if it is as you say, we receive it after the market is closed, in the next report and the reversal cannot be traded for its duration because the following day, half the period is already over. Why does such a reversal disappear the moment it is created, and why is such special signal not accounted for as such in the report? Instead it is treated the same as if it was a reversal that the user could have traded as any other.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[MA_talk]

Fake Daily Reversals

I am just looking at a daily premium report a perplexed friend has sent me.

It contains an inconsistency that I would encourage you to watch:

THE SOCRATES PREMIUM DAILY COMMENTARY, THE CASH US$ INDEX AS OF THE CLOSE OF Wed. Jun. 19, 2019: THE CASH US$ INDEX closed today at 97115
...
The last Reversal elected in this market was a Daily Bearish on Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.


The question was: I cannot remember that reversal. Where was it?

That is easy to check. The same report has a daily reversal table. I checked the reversal tables of Mon. Jun. 17, 2019, and Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

One would expect that the elected reversal would be in the previous report of Mon. Jun. 17, and that it would be missing in the report of Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

No such thing. In both reports, the reversal tables are identical, so the elected reversal was not one of them, and the closest reversals are far away from the closing price.

This means if you just read the report without checking, it looks really nice in a way that Socrates is electing reversals successfully. Unfortunately, these are previously unpublished fake reversals, and their values are not known, either.

Are they manufactured to make Socrates look good?

lol fake reversal.  reversals can be generated and elected on the same day.

This is not something to laugh about.

Then it is a Revision Signal because if it is as you say, we receive it after the market is closed, in the next report and the reversal cannot be traded for its duration because the following day, half the period is already over. Why does such a reversal disappear the moment it is created, and why is such special signal not accounted for as such in the report? Instead it is treated the same as if it was a reversal that the user could have traded as any other.

That is a great catch of lying in action by Socrates or Armstrong, not sure whom, but not sure if it matters.

ALL technical analysis tools use the closing prices/range from their respective time-frame, and try to predict the next closing price.  Reversal prices from Socrates have daily/weekly/monthly/yearly as well, but Armstrong never publishes price levels finer than daily intervals.

Gumbi's statement that "reversals can be generated and elected on the same day" is most likely false.  Any HONEST TA tools that don't peek into the current/future prices will generate reversals or any TA indicators based on PREVIOUS information.  The new day is NOT over without a closing price yet, and Socrates peeks into the price action of current day, generates a new reversal, have it elected, and tries to track the market as much as possible so that it won't appear to be wrong.  NO TA do things like that.  You either go to the NEXT finer time-frame, such as hour, or minute, and generate the same TA indicators at the next finer level, or you don't.  That is equivalent of CHEATING.

Therefore, I don't know what to conclude here.  Several options:
1. What AnonymousCoder stated was fully correct.  It was a REVISION.
2. Gumbi is making things up, since I wouldn't believe Armstrong/Socrates would cheat like that.

In any cases, as AnonymousCoder said, there is no way for any user to react to it.

And Gumbi said that he can trade profitably using Socrates.  That is EMPTY TALK.  You migh as well say that you profited a billion dollar using Socrates, but that is just all talk.

Please demo, as you have promised, or else you have no credibility here.

[Gumbi]

@MA_talk

You don't have any credibility at all since you stopped following Armstrong since 2015 as you have said and only in 2016 did ask-socrates site even launch where there are almost 4 years worth of private blog posts and reversals posted and you have not read a single one.
I don't know how you can even speak here to be honest since you have almost zero experience trading reversals and understanding array's, so what right do you have to even give an opinion when all you had prior was public blog posts it was simply impossible to trade on anything before the launch of his website.



regarding the unknown reversal it could of been a what if reversal that was elected which is not ready for prime time yet.

"Thank you for visiting Ask-Socrates.com. We are in the process of updating our site, migrating data, and transitioning to a new infrastructure.
You may experience delays and discrepancies during this time. We appreciate your patience and understanding."

 every time you log in to ask-socrates you get this message it clearly is not even complete yet.

[AnonymousCoder]

...
regarding the unknown reversal it could of been a what if reversal that was elected which is not ready for prime time yet.
"Thank you for visiting Ask-Socrates.com. We are in the process of updating our site, migrating data, and transitioning to a new infrastructure.
You may experience delays and discrepancies during this time. We appreciate your patience and understanding."

 every time you log in to ask-socrates you get this message it clearly is not even complete yet.

In this sub-thread we now have discovered THREE additional ambiguities / back doors for perfect denial:

1) Signals marked as success in the reports that cannot be traded (Socrates traded but user did not get a signal)
2) "What if" reversal
3) Back-tracking the entire service integrity by claiming work in progress
4) Fully charging for a service still under construction

Thank you for clarifying this Mr Martin Armstrong - we know this is you because only you make all mistakes, deny all of them and then walk away laughing.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[Gumbi]

...
regarding the unknown reversal it could of been a what if reversal that was elected which is not ready for prime time yet.
"Thank you for visiting Ask-Socrates.com. We are in the process of updating our site, migrating data, and transitioning to a new infrastructure.
You may experience delays and discrepancies during this time. We appreciate your patience and understanding."

 every time you log in to ask-socrates you get this message it clearly is not even complete yet.

In this sub-thread we now have discovered THREE additional ambiguities / back doors for perfect denial:

1) Signals marked as success in the reports that cannot be traded (Socrates traded but user did not get a signal)
2) "What if" reversal
3) Back-tracking the entire service integrity by claiming work in progress
4) Fully charging for a service still under construction

Thank you for clarifying this Mr Martin Armstrong - we know this is you because only you make all mistakes and then walk away laughing.

I don't care you clearly are doomed to fail. I suggest you shut down your account on ask-socrates why go on throwing money at a complete scam I mean how stupid are you giving money to a charlatan? you should be ashamed of yourself.

[trulycoined]

...
regarding the unknown reversal it could of been a what if reversal that was elected which is not ready for prime time yet.
"Thank you for visiting Ask-Socrates.com. We are in the process of updating our site, migrating data, and transitioning to a new infrastructure.
You may experience delays and discrepancies during this time. We appreciate your patience and understanding."

 every time you log in to ask-socrates you get this message it clearly is not even complete yet.

In this sub-thread we now have discovered THREE additional ambiguities / back doors for perfect denial:

1) Signals marked as success in the reports that cannot be traded (Socrates traded but user did not get a signal)
2) "What if" reversal
3) Back-tracking the entire service integrity by claiming work in progress
4) Fully charging for a service still under construction

Thank you for clarifying this Mr Martin Armstrong - we know this is you because only you make all mistakes and then walk away laughing.

I don't care you clearly are doomed to fail. I suggest you shut down your account on ask-socrates why go on throwing money at a complete scam I mean how stupid are you giving money to a charlatan? you should be ashamed of yourself.

Marty, sorry, I mean @Gumbi: can you explain why May 2019 came to pass where it was supposed to hark in a "major financial panic" that never happened? Surely your the Socrates system would have indicated that May 2019 WAS significant, hence the writing about it?

Additionally, what is so significant about the 1MBD scandal that it was "selected" as the flashpoint of Pi Day 21 Nov 2018? It involved around $6.5bn dollars, which is chicken feed on a global scale. LTCM that exploded in 1998 had $126bn in assets, or around $200bn factoring in inflation to today's money. That did almost tank the world economy because of potential contagion.

If the 1MBD fund was near that sum, perhaps you - I mean Armstrong - might have been onto something.

As it is, there are two big calls (Nov, WEC is Nov; May, WEC is in May) that were significant for only one obvious reason: it makes it much easier to sell conference tickets.

[MA_talk]

@MA_talk

You don't have any credibility at all since you stopped following Armstrong since 2015 as you have said and only in 2016 did ask-socrates site even launch where there are almost 4 years worth of private blog posts and reversals posted and you have not read a single one.
I don't know how you can even speak here to be honest since you have almost zero experience trading reversals and understanding array's, so what right do you have to even give an opinion when all you had prior was public blog posts it was simply impossible to trade on anything before the launch of his website.



regarding the unknown reversal it could of been a what if reversal that was elected which is not ready for prime time yet.

"Thank you for visiting Ask-Socrates.com. We are in the process of updating our site, migrating data, and transitioning to a new infrastructure.
You may experience delays and discrepancies during this time. We appreciate your patience and understanding."

 every time you log in to ask-socrates you get this message it clearly is not even complete yet.

@Gumbi, by saying that unknown reversal it could of been a what if reversal that was elected....

You EFFECTIVELY agreed that reversal system is like any other TA that should only use PREVIOUS information available, NOT using current information to predict the current state (Duh!).

That also meant that you MADE UP that statement of yours in the previous post: "lol fake reversal.  reversals can be generated and elected on the same day. "

So your short record here contained a LIE that you just admit yourself, stating in the manner that apparently you know the system inside out.

Then you go on saying that the it could of been a what if reversal.  With a GLARING TYPO!

Well, let me tell you that it canNOT be a what if.  Because what if is an IF.  So if that report is sent out at 9:45am versus noon versus 3:30pm, the what if is NOT the same.  Armstrong always says that don't guess ahead of the market, and wait for the CLOSING price.  So "what if" is against what Armstrong preaches.

Okay, let's give you the benefit of doubt that it was a "what if".  Then HOW does Socrates/Armstrong determines the time (9:45am vs noon) at which to send it out?  That is arbitrary, which should not be present in any computer algorithm, ESPECIALLY when Armstrong always claims that the world is NOT random.

Since it couldn't have been an arbitrary time, it was then a "regular" reversal just like any others, well, EXCEPT that that one is FAKE and REVISED as AnonymousCoder has pointed out.

And of course, you defend Armstrong's Socrates system as if you know it inside out, and like your own, saying that it is work in progress.

That of course led everyone here to believe that you are Armstrong himself.

By exhausting every branch of choices & possibilities here, eventually, I'm led to whether you LIED and MADE UP statements, or Armstrong LIED and REVISED the reversal numbers, or Socrates LIED and peeked into the current prices to "predict" the current state.

I'm not sure which of the above, it seems to me that it is ALL of the above three.

That was just Great that you responded, exposing yourself further for the truth.

Shall I say "hood work" instead of "good work" like the grateful "reader's" comments most likely written by Armstrong himself?

[Gumbi]

...
regarding the unknown reversal it could of been a what if reversal that was elected which is not ready for prime time yet.
"Thank you for visiting Ask-Socrates.com. We are in the process of updating our site, migrating data, and transitioning to a new infrastructure.
You may experience delays and discrepancies during this time. We appreciate your patience and understanding."

 every time you log in to ask-socrates you get this message it clearly is not even complete yet.

In this sub-thread we now have discovered THREE additional ambiguities / back doors for perfect denial:

1) Signals marked as success in the reports that cannot be traded (Socrates traded but user did not get a signal)
2) "What if" reversal
3) Back-tracking the entire service integrity by claiming work in progress
4) Fully charging for a service still under construction

Thank you for clarifying this Mr Martin Armstrong - we know this is you because only you make all mistakes and then walk away laughing.

I don't care you clearly are doomed to fail. I suggest you shut down your account on ask-socrates why go on throwing money at a complete scam I mean how stupid are you giving money to a charlatan? you should be ashamed of yourself.

Marty, sorry, I mean @Gumbi: can you explain why May 2019 came to pass where it was supposed to hark in a "major financial panic" that never happened? Surely your the Socrates system would have indicated that May 2019 WAS significant, hence the writing about it?

Additionally, what is so significant about the 1MBD scandal that it was "selected" as the flashpoint of Pi Day 21 Nov 2018? It involved around $6.5bn dollars, which is chicken feed on a global scale. LTCM that exploded in 1998 had $126bn in assets, or around $200bn factoring in inflation to today's money. That did almost tank the world economy because of potential contagion.

If the 1MBD fund was near that sum, perhaps you - I mean Armstrong - might have been onto something.

As it is, there are two big calls (Nov, WEC is Nov; May, WEC is in May) that were significant for only one obvious reason: it makes it much easier to sell conference tickets.

NO I am not ARMSTRONG, he would never post here to such a small audience.

The 1MBD scandal is one of many things that occurred.  What you could of done is shorted the hell out of Goldman Sachs’ 

"Goldman Sachs’ share price is going down hard into 2019. The 159 level will be critical on a closing basis for the year. If that is breached, then we could see very major implications for the firm whereby it may no longer survive. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/goldman-sachs-going-down-on-the-pi-target/


This event also occurred on Pi Day 21 Nov 2018

Italy vs EU

"The event today may be the fact that the EU has now stated it will bring sanctions against Italy for refusing to comply with its demands. So here we have the Pi Target and to the day Brussels has officially rejected Italy’s spending budget on Wednesday, November 21st which opens the door to sanctions. With hindsight, we will perhaps look at this day as the start of a further deterioration of the European Union that has converted a trade union into a centralized dictatorship applying a central theme of austerity to everyone regardless of their economic conditions."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/italy-v-eu-november-21-2018/

Another significant event
"Russia Starts Criminal Investigation of Browder While US Deep State Protects him"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/russia-starts-criminal-investigation-of-browder-while-us-deep-state-protects-him/

I recommend you watch the magnitsky act documentary, very interesting but it keeps getting taken down.
 


what happens in 2020.05 the next ECM date should be very significant,
May 2019 was targeted  as turning point and Nov 2018 was also a turning point.


There was a lot of panic going into May with the European elections and  there were large capital outflows out of Europe as confidence is being lost  we saw the EURO and GBP crashing and overall
A volatile period. This is simply a prelude of what is to come.

 If you were not told there is a major financial crisis about to occur in Europe you would most likely be none the wiser. The establishment and main stream media do not want you to know anything about the real situation hence the attempts to try and shut Armstrong up once and for all.

[Gumbi]

@MA_talk

reversals can be generated and elected on the same day again I repeat but this is not so common and also you get what if reversals which the AI is displaying but only for monthly reversals for now.

so for example employing what if models on the Monthly level. "using our what if models we see that we have monthly bullish reversals that would be generated if we see another new low penetrating 2480951 these hypothetical bullish
reversals would stand at 2508650,2510963..."
"However If we continue to make new lows then these what if reversals will be replaced by a new set until the low becomes fixed."

all the reports are done entirely by the AI very impressive to say the least.

Armstrong is age 69 years old what do you expect regarding typos.

[Gumbi]

Gumbi, if you look at StrikeEagle's posts, don't you think he sounds very much like Armstrong? And if we go by that 30% and 70% rule of what he claimed Panic Cycles are, he says a strong move in one direction OR an outside reversal happens 30 and 70 percent of the time. SO in other words, a Panic Cycle is supposed to do one or the other 100 percent of the time. That obviously did not happen. Also, can you explain how Armstrong coincidentally timed his Private Blog posts specifically to my claims? The most obvious one was when I said he would have to state where he would be wrong. A little while later, he posted that a weekly close above 25100 is where he would be wrong because that was where the Daily ended and the Weekly began. And the market did indeed make a weekly close above that number on Friday. Then I made more critiques. A little while later, someone who sounds a lot like Armstrong show up and tries to defend Socrates from said claims. I can believe in coincidences. But a series of them is hard to believe, especially when those cooincidences crop up to such specific details.

Here's my thinking. You or Socrates or any follower can make any trading related claim you want. It's fine. Just state what needs to happen to invalidate your thesis. A line in the sand is needed where it will be wrong. Don't understand Socrates perfectly? No problem, it happens to us all. If the winrate and r:r is high enough, it is more than enough to overcome such minutiae, and I'm sure even MA_talk will change his mind if live calls can show a large and consistent profit, even if it is not 100 percent. For myself and many others, we were not able to consistently profit and ended up losing money due to Socrates/Armstrong. Nontrading related claims are not falsifiable- they are subjective and open to almost any interpretation, which is why this forum has gone on for so long. So unless you have a way of making them objective, they stay stuck in the pile along with Nostradamus and crystal balls.

Yes but we are all discussing the same things here so logically the same question is bound to be asked by someone else not just you. Panic cycles are not intended to be 100% accurate since even the aggregate on the array which is the sum of all models is not so. The reversals offer the most precision.

I will post a trade If I see one.

We had the euro/usd elect a daily bullish yesterday so your line in the sand as to where you are wrong would be if the market moved below that elected reversal which should provide support.

We also elected a daily bullish on crude oil yesterday so your risk to the downside would be if the market moved below that elected reversal which should provide support moving forward.

The reversals are simply KEY AREAS of support and resistance so if the market moves and closes above a resistance level(bullish reversal) that area should now function as support and vice versa.

[olegrey]

Simplicity is better

I started shorting Brazil last week when it had the temp high. Low risk high reward. Simple to find.

No single signal in Socrates about it, actually it is still bullish from what I have heard. So far, profitable even while the start was a bit scary.

So what would have happened had I traded Socrates?

Weekly reversals elected 2019-06-07, traded for a week Friday to Friday close 2019-06-07 to 2019-06-14

$DXY weekly bearish 1% loss
EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
GDAX weekly bullish 0.4% gain
SENSEX weekly bullish 0.4% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 1.0% loss
USD/CHF weekly bearish 1.2% loss
Visa weekly bullish 0.2% loss
Cotton weekly bearish 0.5% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 0.3% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 2.1% loss

That is a fairly good cross section of the market, of what was elected, I guess. One winner.

I would not want to extend this depressing experiment by another two weeks waiting while these trades come right while I can have a profit within a week with something better.

$DXY weekly bearish 0.4% gain
EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.4% gain
GDAX weekly bullish 2.4% gain
SENSEX weekly bullish 1.1% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 0.4% gain
USD/CHF weekly bearish 4.2% gain
Visa weekly bullish 2.0% gain
Cotton weekly bearish 0.1% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 5.3% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 5.6% gain

*All prices were obtained from tradingview on the closing of 7/7, 7/14, and 7/21.

Let see what next week brings!

[psp777]

Well, let's see if the 1% rule applies to gold. It should snap back and test the reversal in the mid 1360s. Whats going on with regard to the DOW... we can continue moving up in a channel move, but could still test lows in January...both sides left open hmmm

[olegrey]

Simplicity is better

I started shorting Brazil last week when it had the temp high. Low risk high reward. Simple to find.

No single signal in Socrates about it, actually it is still bullish from what I have heard. So far, profitable even while the start was a bit scary.

So what would have happened had I traded Socrates?

Weekly reversals elected 2019-06-07, traded for a week Friday to Friday close 2019-06-07 to 2019-06-14

$DXY weekly bearish 1% loss
EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
GDAX weekly bullish 0.4% gain
SENSEX weekly bullish 0.4% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 1.0% loss
USD/CHF weekly bearish 1.2% loss
Visa weekly bullish 0.2% loss
Cotton weekly bearish 0.5% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 0.3% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 2.1% loss

That is a fairly good cross section of the market, of what was elected, I guess. One winner.

I would not want to extend this depressing experiment by another two weeks waiting while these trades come right while I can have a profit within a week with something better.

$DXY weekly bearish 0.4% gain
EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.4% gain
GDAX weekly bullish 2.4% gain
SENSEX weekly bullish 1.1% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 0.4% gain
USD/CHF weekly bearish 4.2% gain
Visa weekly bullish 2.0% gain
Cotton weekly bearish 0.1% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 5.3% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 5.6% gain

*All prices were obtained from tradingview on the closing of 7/7, 7/14, and 7/21.

Let see what next week brings!

I had a 15% gain on the account. And I also posted my calls live and not only that, forecasted it ahead of time. Socrates is still not good compared to human traders. Also we need entries and exits and stop criteria all stated beforehand, as well as the vehicles to be traded. Hindsight bias cannot account for anything

I am not subscribed to socrates as of now, but I assume the entry would be after the election of the reversal, and the stop would be placed around the nearest opposite reversal.  This study is purely academic to explore if a instrument will produce an expected result  (increase in price for an elected bullish reversal and decrease for a bearish one) after 3 weeks of the reversal election after producing an unexpected result after 1 week after the election of a reversal.  If this feasibility study is successful I hope anonymous coder will provide his data for a comprehensive study of the 3 time unit theory.  If the comprehensive study is successful I will purchase socrates and produce another study with all the criteria you've given

[olegrey]

Fake Daily Reversals

I am just looking at a daily premium report a perplexed friend has sent me.

It contains an inconsistency that I would encourage you to watch:

THE SOCRATES PREMIUM DAILY COMMENTARY, THE CASH US$ INDEX AS OF THE CLOSE OF Wed. Jun. 19, 2019: THE CASH US$ INDEX closed today at 97115
...
The last Reversal elected in this market was a Daily Bearish on Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.


The question was: I cannot remember that reversal. Where was it?

That is easy to check. The same report has a daily reversal table. I checked the reversal tables of Mon. Jun. 17, 2019, and Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

One would expect that the elected reversal would be in the previous report of Mon. Jun. 17, and that it would be missing in the report of Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

No such thing. In both reports, the reversal tables are identical, so the elected reversal was not one of them, and the closest reversals are far away from the closing price.

This means if you just read the report without checking, it looks really nice in a way that Socrates is electing reversals successfully. Unfortunately, these are previously unpublished fake reversals, and their values are not known, either.

Are they manufactured to make Socrates look good?

lol fake reversal.  reversals can be generated and elected on the same day.

This is not something to laugh about.

Then it is a Revision Signal because if it is as you say, we receive it after the market is closed, in the next report and the reversal cannot be traded for its duration because the following day, half the period is already over. Why does such a reversal disappear the moment it is created, and why is such special signal not accounted for as such in the report? Instead it is treated the same as if it was a reversal that the user could have traded as any other.

The socrates user manual on pg. 13 states,

"When a market is very bearish, it can generate a bearish Reversal that is higher than the peak of a reaction
rally and elect it simultaneously with being generated. This takes place normally with the broader long-term
Reversals. It is an indication that it is very bearish. "

[AnonymousCoder]

Fake Daily Reversals

I am just looking at a daily premium report a perplexed friend has sent me.

It contains an inconsistency that I would encourage you to watch:

THE SOCRATES PREMIUM DAILY COMMENTARY, THE CASH US$ INDEX AS OF THE CLOSE OF Wed. Jun. 19, 2019: THE CASH US$ INDEX closed today at 97115
...
The last Reversal elected in this market was a Daily Bearish on Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.


The question was: I cannot remember that reversal. Where was it?

That is easy to check. The same report has a daily reversal table. I checked the reversal tables of Mon. Jun. 17, 2019, and Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

One would expect that the elected reversal would be in the previous report of Mon. Jun. 17, and that it would be missing in the report of Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

No such thing. In both reports, the reversal tables are identical, so the elected reversal was not one of them, and the closest reversals are far away from the closing price.

This means if you just read the report without checking, it looks really nice in a way that Socrates is electing reversals successfully. Unfortunately, these are previously unpublished fake reversals, and their values are not known, either.

Are they manufactured to make Socrates look good?

lol fake reversal. reversals can be generated and elected on the same day.

This is not something to laugh about.

Then it is a Revision Signal because if it is as you say, we receive it after the market is closed, in the next report and the reversal cannot be traded for its duration because the following day, half the period is already over. Why does such a reversal disappear the moment it is created, and why is such special signal not accounted for as such in the report? Instead it is treated the same as if it was a reversal that the user could have traded as any other.

The socrates user manual on pg. 13 states,

"When a market is very bearish, it can generate a bearish Reversal that is higher than the peak of a reaction
rally and elect it simultaneously with being generated. This takes place normally with the broader long-term
Reversals. It is an indication that it is very bearish. "

Well spotted!
In this case, which is different again, Socrates does not have any more reversals for you to trade because the reversal system is exhausted at that extremely bearish point. So to keep the show running, it creates a phantom reversal which SOCRATES trades (without telling you in time) to look profitable. You look in the rear vision mirror and say "Hang on, it is there, but I didn't see it coming". You could not trade this zero risk trade, and you miss the profit. Again, it is a REVISION SIGNAL

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/revision-signals.html

because Socrates decides to do this only AFTER the fact, borrowing from the future. In other words, these phantom reversals ALWAYS show as being profitable - they cannot fail because they are generated after the future close price is known, but ONLY if the future price is below the previous price. So here we have the user manual discrediting the system it describes.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain