Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cbeast]

cypherdoc has not suggested anyone to buy more than they can hold long term. Therefore, there have been no resultant losses over the past year.

Losses in terms of USD, absolutely.

But none of that is due to cypherdoc's advice. The USD will be worth zero before Bitcoin.

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[traderCJ]

I would feel worse about dumping all my PM's and going all in to Bitcoin even if I had done so.  Even though it would have made me a ton of money it would have been an irresponsible gamble in my situation.  I don't pat myself on the back as having some special skill if I roll snake-eyes, land on community chest, and collect a 'bank error in my favor'.  That's just luck.  There were a bunch of things that could easily have gone haywire with Bitcoin over the last 4 years and we got very lucky on them.  The emergency hard-fork was one of these.

And a pat on the back for you 1) admitting that much of this is pure luck, like dancing through a Vietnamese minefield and 2) diversifying in the face of uncertainty ..

[traderCJ]

cypherdoc has not suggested anyone to buy more than they can hold long term. Therefore, there have been no resultant losses over the past year.

Losses in terms of USD, absolutely.

But none of that is due to cypherdoc's advice. The USD will be worth zero before Bitcoin.

A "paper loss" is a loss nonetheless.  When the bank estimates your net worth in order to issue a business loan, they don't care about your expectations of future value.  All that matters is the price today, not some theoretical number a decade from now.  If you've got a different definition of loss, then fine, we will agree to disagree.

[cbeast]

cypherdoc has not suggested anyone to buy more than they can hold long term. Therefore, there have been no resultant losses over the past year.

Losses in terms of USD, absolutely.

But none of that is due to cypherdoc's advice. The USD will be worth zero before Bitcoin.

A "paper loss" is a loss nonetheless.  When the bank estimates your net worth in order to issue a business loan, they don't care about your expectations of future value.  All that matters is the price today, not some theoretical number a decade from now.  If you've got a different definition of loss, then fine, we will agree to disagree.

Bitcoin is not part of that equation. In fact, you could be penniless, owe millions of dollars, and live like a king with bitcoins.

[cypherdoc]

you boys seem to not understand something very simple about this thread.  it really is about my experience and thoughts about what i see happening and my own personal journey with gold/silver & Bitcoin.  i really don't want or care for anyone to follow my lead.  for most of the thread, i ran my newsletter and intentionally did not give any recommendations openly as those were reserved for my subs.  and for those who did follow my advice during the newsletter lifetime, they should have made a fortune.  literally.

the fact of the matter is selling/shorting gold and silver from when i did back here has made me a fortune from which i have gladly paid my taxes:

i've been telling ppl for quite some time now that i've been selling my bullion for btc for several months now.  and its true, i've liquidated lots of the stuff since April that i first bought in 2005-2007.  i'm an ardent suporter of btc for the longest time.  i've also been warning ppl about divergences in the PM market i've been exploiting via shorts such as the divergence in silver, miners, and the gold price.  i understand what gold is all about and i love the stuff but when btc came along my allegiance switched.

the basis of my thinking has been and always will be that its all about the USD.  the Fed controls the issuance of the USD and its its only franchise.  i don't think they want to relinquish that control of the worlds reserve currency.  the USD is also how most billionaires wealth is stored in this country.  most of the debt in the world is denominated in USD (60%).  there was a great article someone posted about how the bankers have been complaining to Ben that they're being hurt by the weak USD.  Duh.

let me list the warnings i see:

1. silver has broken down badly from $50. it continues to this am.
2. silver stocks are in an obvious decline and got hit yesterday hard.
3. gold stocks are no better.  they usually lead.
4. we're at 11 yrs of the bull.  some ppl say theres an extended 9 yr cycle going on.
5. asset classes don't all break down simultaneously.  it took gold and miners several months to break down after the Dow in 2007 so i don't expect them to have followed the Dow down since May 2011.
6. gold is trying to or has, depending on how you look at it, entered a parabola.  do you really want to buy a parabola now if we're entering a major deflationary phase when cash is King?
7. its debatable how widespread the evangelism about gold has spread but everywhere i turn, on street corner stores, tv ads, and my secretary everyone's buying gold.

ok, now for the tinfoil hat stuff.  stop right here if you want to stick with the technical trading stuff above.  over many years of trading i've learned to think like a criminal and this is what i see happening.

1. GS and JPM have huge short positions in the metals.  do you think they will let them double, triple from here even if they represent hedges?  i think thats the last thing they want to see.
2. gold has acted very strange the last coupla weeks to me ramping in the face of a severe selloff in the Dow and the clear threat of deflation.
3. altho GS & JPM probably never saw the bull in PM's they aren't stupid and know how to handle them.  so how do you handle a losing situation?  Buy into it. Profit as well.  create a huge parabola. Build up an even greater short position. Get Ben to squelch liquidity. Then sell it off at the top when everyone's in and short the crap out of it. this is what happened in silver.
4. why is btc rallying all of a sudden?  could it be that its exerting itself in the economic scene based on the virtues of what we all know?  it also could be that Wall St is rotating out of stocks and soon pm's into btc.
5. when would the trap go off?  i think todays FOMC meeting with lack of any further QE would be the perfect timing for a gold selloff.

so guys, just give me a few hours to see if my theory proves correct.  if it doesn't work by all means buy the parabola.  personally i'm going to give it a few days from today to let it work but you can all call me a tinfoiler if gold doesn't start going down after the announcement.

Disclosure:  i do have a huge short position in bullion in place.

furthermore, buying Bitcoin starting @ $1.60 has also been extremely profitable, on paper.  i've never sold a coin so you can put me in the same category as the Winklevii.  i don't care to day trade like tvbcof whose sentiment shifts with the wind and at every turn.  for me, it's about accumulating as many BTC as possible.

you guys are free to leave this thread or put me on ignore but it is painfully obvious that you guys can't stay away.  you love me and hate fact that i keep shorting and covering gold and silver at the most opportune time.  furthermore, you hate the fact that this thread is so popular with so many viewers.  that's not my problem though.  oh well.

[tvbcof]

...
furthermore, buying Bitcoin starting @ $1.60 has also been extremely profitable, on paper.  ...

Smoothie should be along shortly to demand notarized copies of all your financial statements.

[HeliKopterBen]

@trader j

I don't feel sorry for anyone who got burnt taking investment advice on the speculation subforum of bitcointalk... and go back to the beginning of this thread and calculate the gains and losses from bitcoin and gold.  Cypherdoc was spot on with that call.

[cypherdoc]

...
furthermore, buying Bitcoin starting @ $1.60 has also been extremely profitable, on paper.  ...

Smoothie should be along shortly to demand notarized copies of all your financial statements.

but most importantly you know it's true, as i've been consistent with that figure since long ago when we were still in single digits.  you also know my average cost in, altho it has increased from additional buying during this downturn.   i still maintain this latest downturn is yet another gift to accumulators.  i can't believe my luck actually.

[cypherdoc]

the most important thing during an accumulation is to not get overextended in case of a prolonged downturn, like we've had over the last year.

i've consistently said i have no debt, have real estate, and have a self owned highly profitable business that allows me the diversification and peace of mind to not get shaken out.  this bull mkt is vicious and has already shaken off most of its original bulls including guys like tvbcof (to whatever degree he will admit).

[traderCJ]

the most important thing during an accumulation is to not get overextended in case of a prolonged downturn, like we've had over the last year.

i've consistently said i have no debt, have real estate, and have a self owned highly profitable business that allows me the diversification and peace of mind to not get shaken out.  this bull mkt is vicious and has already shaken off most of its original bulls including guys like tvbcof (to whatever degree he will admit).

Oh brother.  You're not the only one with a solid business, and you're not the only one who made a killing.  I didn't start as early as you.  Most of the people here didn't.  We had to make our nuts on a compressed time frame.  Starting back in 2011, a chimp could have become a millionaire, let alone a human.  None of this changes the fact that you've been wrong the past year, big time, just like those who bought into PMs at their pinnacle.  Keep that ego in check, cypher 

[cypherdoc]

if anything, the massive attempts of clowns like traderCJ, tvbcof, and the Not* brother trolls to discredit me tells me we are still very early on in the game.  they are how you tell we are NOT in a bubble.  the bearish sentiment has become overconfident.  that combined with over a year long pullback that can't take us consistently below 200 is a very good sign for Bitcoin bulls.  this down half of this latest cycle is way overextended in duration and most likely has bottomed.  the guys who got in early like me are still way, way UP.  you'll have to take it down into single digits to make me hurt.  good luck.  i'm reminded of the NASDAQ crash down into 2002.  what came after that has been glorious.

i'm looking forward to pouring in more fiat tomorrow when my funds arrive at the exchange.

[traderCJ]

if anything, the massive attempts of clowns like traderCJ, tvbcof, and the Not* brother trolls to discredit me tells me we are still very early on in the game.  they are how you tell we are NOT in a bubble.  the bearish sentiment has become overconfident.  that combined with over a year long pullback that can't take us consistently below 200 is a very good sign for Bitcoin bulls.  this down half of this latest cycle is way overextended in duration and most likely has bottomed.  the guys who got in early like me are still way, way UP.  you'll have to take it down into single digits to make me hurt.  good luck.  i'm reminded of the NASDAQ crash down into 2002.  what came after that has been glorious.

i'm looking forward to pouring in more fiat tomorrow when my funds arrive at the exchange.

Well cypher, I think about the only thing we can agree on is that paying taxes sucks.

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

you need to read more closely.

i have gladly paid my taxes

[tvbcof]

the most important thing during an accumulation is to not get overextended in case of a prolonged downturn, like we've had over the last year.

i've consistently said i have no debt, have real estate, and have a self owned highly profitable business that allows me the diversification and peace of mind to not get shaken out.  this bull mkt is vicious and has already shaken off most of its original bulls including guys like tvbcof (to whatever degree he will admit).

Admit?  Hell, I practically brag about it.  I set my 10x and 100x targets that I set when I was accumulating and have made myself stick to them.  In fact I didn't call any tops.  That I sold on one was really just a personal 100x-ish target.  But I did mention what I was doing.

All throughout, even when I was buying and saying that I didn't think it was a bad idea for some folks to take a position, I have made it plainly clear that I see risks, dangers, etc and taken the efforts to describe them.  If that is mistaken for 'bear' behavior, oh well.  I personally consider it simply being responsible.  I took the time a few weeks ago to outline the strategy and thought processes I used when I was accumulating for the benefit of those who might be accumulating now (which I think is appropriate for some to do) but that in no way makes me feel like I should not be pointing out the risks I see.  Just the opposite really.

[traderCJ]

you need to read more closely.

i have gladly paid my taxes

Loosen up 79, I don't think anyone on a Libertarian leaning forum "gladly" pays their taxes.  Begrudgingly, more like it.  And that's the way it should be.

[tvbcof]

the most important thing during an accumulation is to not get overextended in case of a prolonged downturn, like we've had over the last year.

i've consistently said i have no debt, have real estate, and have a self owned highly profitable business that allows me the diversification and peace of mind to not get shaken out.  this bull mkt is vicious and has already shaken off most of its original bulls including guys like tvbcof (to whatever degree he will admit).

Oh brother.  You're not the only one with a solid business, and you're not the only one who made a killing.  I didn't start as early as you.  Most of the people here didn't.  We had to make our nuts on a compressed time frame.  Starting back in 2011, a chimp could have become a millionaire, let alone a human.  None of this changes the fact that you've been wrong the past year, big time, just like those who bought into PMs at their pinnacle.  Keep that ego in check, cypher 

+1.  Well stated.  Best not to let one's head balloon to much about this.

Cyph does have a fair point that a goodly number of early adopters did sell out to quickly.  The guy who Thermos took over the forum from (cirius I think his name was) and who was one of Satoshi's very early collaborators claims to have sold out when he could afford an apartment.  He could have bought an entire city if he had not.  Another guy got desperate and hungry and sold out only to buy back in later (~elwar I believe, and I think he is a contemporary of Cyph and me.)  At any rate, it took a lot more of something to sit on one's stash than it did to develop one in the early days.  Of course anyone could be telling tales about their legacy (of fail) and there would be good reason to do so.  But still, I'm sure that cypherdoc is right here in all to many cases.

The people who really have my respect are those like Gavin and Garzik who gave away Bitcoin as a means of jump-starting things.

[cypherdoc]

Starting back in 2011, a chimp could have become a millionaire, let alone a human.

you have no idea what you're talking about, not being anywhere around here during that time.  sentiment was WAY worse and this forum was crawling with a majority of trolls.  in fact, it was so bad that i started my first 2 threads in this Spec forum in an attempt to counteract the spiral down in sentiment.

Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze?

How many of you have been Zhoutonged?

those threads are filled with bear venom.  the risk of investing back then was MUCH higher than it is now.  why?  b/c we were so much closer to zero and total failure.  when it broke below 2 to 1.98, the large final capitulatory downstroke was completed as bears and bulls alike vomited up their last units.  we're nowhere close to that after a downturn over 3x as long.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Starting back in 2011, a chimp could have become a millionaire

actually before then the IQ around this place was highest anywhere on the web ... so, no chimps and chumps have only came along later.

Just like apple and microsoft stocks, you had to have knowledge more than luck at those levels, people whining about unfairness of coin distribution are, almost by definition, stupider than your average bear.

[cypherdoc]

Starting back in 2011, a chimp could have become a millionaire

actually before then the IQ around this place was highest anywhere on the web ... so, no chimps and chumps have only came along later.

Just like apple and microsoft stocks, you had to have knowledge more than luck at those levels, people whining about unfairness of coin distribution are, almost by definition, stupider than your average bear.

the discussions of 2011 were of very high quality as those were times when we were trying to figure out basically what Bitcoin is; things like the BC being a "ledger", "gold-like", suitable to replace digital examples like M-Pesa, remittances, etc.  and my favorite Bitcoin: "A Self-Contained Financial System"

[smoothie]

...
furthermore, buying Bitcoin starting @ $1.60 has also been extremely profitable, on paper.  ...

Smoothie should be along shortly to demand notarized copies of all your financial statements.

lol yes i would love to see proof cypher.

If you have any...