Ciao a tutti,
ho provato a dire la mia sulla situazione "disperata" di bitcoin, sulla sezione internazionale del forum.
Secondo me ci sono un pò di argomenti di discussione, che non volevo affogare in questo mega thread.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5106432.msg49596691#msg49596691Graditi opinioni e pareri, se non ve la cavate con l'inglese, postate qui sotto in italiano!
I still cannot decide.
There is a number of different issues pointing to an higher or lower bitcoin. Both are valid, but still I cannot decide which one will prevail and when.
Here I collect a few evidences, trying to sum up a few conclusion. I don’t think every one of this indicators has to be fully trusted independently, but looking at them all together might give us first of all a clear snapshot of the current environment, secondly might help rationalize it.
There are a lot of graphs, I will post here both picture and graph link, so you can check the source independently.
BULLISH: Halving.
We all know that in May, 2020 bitcoin will halve mining reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, this mean every day the number of bitcoin mined everyday will drop from 1800 to 900 dropping actual inflation rate from 3.82% to 1,80%. Just for comparison the rate M1 (money + money like instruments) is growing in US is 5%.
An new way of looking at is is thinking at the impact of money inflows on the market:
https://twitter.com/HassMcCook/status/1092593192854159360
Just to give you an idea: I told you before M1 is growing 5% annually: this means $500m are created on a daily basis, in USD only (other CB’s are increasing money supply at similar or higher levels).
Halving will happen in May ’20, history told us pre halving rally starts 6ish month before, this leaves us with at least another 10 months of crypto winter ahead of us.
Provided history repeats again this time everyone expecting it to do so.
BULLISH: Layer 2 applications - Lightning Network
https://bitcoinvisuals.com/lightninghttps://graph.lndexplorer.com/Lightning network recently capacity 645 BTC. This is an impressive growth for a technology still in his full development, needing a border line reckless attitude to put funds in it, being the change of losing those fund not negligible.
This is an “invisible asset” for bitcoin adoption, allowing truly decentralised, trustless, instant payments with ridiculously low fees. This will allow the creation of a whole new industry of payment processors: ending point? Competition with credit cards.
In addition to that every Layer 2 progress allows further developments (layer 3 applications I cannot even think of) and in addition to that strengthens Layer One: the Bitcoin protocol, like a big Jenga game, where every superior layer presses and consolidate lower layers.
BULLISH: Transactions number:
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?daysAverageString=7×pan=2yearsWe had times where Bitcoin prices went up without transaction number going up accordingly, now the opposite is happening: transaction number is back to a steadyily high, and growing, level, whils price is still lagging behind.
If we couple this finding with the growing success of LN, then we can be positive about the future.
BULLISH: Cryptopia, Quadriga Exchanges disasters
https://www.chepicap.com/en/news/7157/cryptopia-hack-timeline-as-it-happened.htmlhttps://www.coindesk.com/quadrigacx-crypto-exchange-users-say-they-still-cant-get-their-money-outYes, those are actually bullish news. Firstly every destroyed bitcoin, is a bitcoin actually lost forever, meaning available bitcoin are even less than theoretically available, thus increasing value of remaining bitcoins.
Secondly, exchanges are the weakest link in the cryptosystem: subpar operations, poor security and suboptimal protection for the inexperienced users are the norm so far. There’s a reason if one of the first suggestion is not to keep your funds on an exchange. This is meant to change, if we want cryptos to succeed: we have to make exchanges evolve toward more evolved context. If this must happen via Darwinist-like evolution (of both users and exchanges) or via law enforcements is yet to be seen (I prefer the first one, but I am open to suggestions).
BEARISH: Unique addresses number is not picking up
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=2years&daysAverageString=7Unique Bitcoin addresses used has shown signs of stabilization, but they are at levels last associated with much lower prices: we have a number of addresses first seen at the end of 2016 lows that were associated with price range of $700-$1,000.
BEARISH: Volatility and NVT
Here a couple of more technical indicators: realised (historical) volatility coupled with Network value-to-transactions (NVT) ratio.
The first indicates the realised swings of Bitcoin Prices, the attached graph shows a blue line of such index computed over the last 120 days.
The second can be interpreted for Bitcoin in the same way P/E ratio for a stock-market. More insight and details on the interpretation of such signal can be found here:
https://woobull.com/introducing-nvt-ratio-bitcoins-pe-ratio-use-it-to-detect-bubbles/Both are heading down, but remain far-above the levels that have typically marked price bottoms (NTV Ratio above 40 signals a bottom on the market) . The end of 2015 was the last time these measures marked a nadir. That near-simultaneous trough set the stage for the bull market, when prices surged from $300 to $19,000. The indicators should breach the 2015 low, if history is a guide, notably volatility to signal the end of bearish market. At the moment both indicators are well above those lows, and there’s a pressure and space for them to fall lower together.
BEARISH: USD Exchange Trade Volume
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/trade-volume?daysAverageString=7×pan=2yearsExchange traded volume are touching multi year lows. Also Bitcoin future activity (open interest) is hovering at minuscule levels both on CME and CBOE futures, evening considering the “business cycle” of such instruments.
Low volume are correlated with low prices, and last time we had this volume on exchanges, back in first days of August ’17 Bitcoin price was hovering just USD 3,000. As I said speaking about halvening, big volumes are needed to sustain prices, and future open interest is a signal of “interest” of Wall Street, or broader traditional finance, on the world of cryptos. It is not a good sign if this interest is at low levels, even remembering that is not Bitcoin that needs Wall Street, but rather Wall Street that needs Bitcoin.
CBOE future
http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futuresCME future
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin.htmlBEARISH: Transaction Value is not picking up .
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?daysAverageString=7×pan=2yearsHighly correlated to Bitcoin (BTC), estimated dollar-transaction value has declined to levels last when the cryptocurrency's price was about $2,400. For most of 2018, the measure flashed warnings that BTC was priced too high. It still is. May 2017, when BTC first traded above $2,400, was the last time the 30-day average of dollar-based transactions from Blockchain.com was at current levels. Despite this average measure of past transactions, the scale of our graphic shows it acts as a leading indicator.
Clearly in a downtrend, with prices briefly dipping below the white transactions line in December, BTC should drop a further $1,000 just to catch up with plunging transactions. When 180-day volatility bottomed in October 2015, transactions were in a clear uptrend. We expect new lows in volatility for a similar indication.
What are your thoughts?
